| The longest government shutdown in history ended on November 12, 2025 – As people were called back to work, there were a lot of questions as to how much the 43-day shutdown would impact the economy. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the disruption is expected to reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by about 1.5 percentage points. All in all, tens of thousands of federal workers missed paychecks, contractors lost business, consumer spending was curtailed during the six-week interruption, and key data like jobs and unemployment, inflation, retail sales, etc., were not released as planned because the workers who tabulate the data were furloughed. Investors are anxious about how consumers will behave after six weeks of disrupted pay and routines. Many of those wages are lost (or delayed) and won’t get recycled instantly into restaurant meals, travel, shopping, etc. That means some spending is permanently displaced this quarter. That, in turn, is one reason stocks faltered despite the end of the shutdown.
U.S. job growth picked up in September – The September jobs report was released on November 20, after being delayed by the shutdown – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 119,000 jobs were added in September, up from a revised loss of 4,000 jobs in August. This report points to a healthy pre-shutdown gain in employers’ confidence to increase hiring. The October jobs report will not be released. They will issue the unemployment rate with the November report in December. Part of the report is derived from surveys that were not done in October, which is the reason that a full report cannot be done for October. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August, its highest level since 2021.
Stock markets rebounded to end the month with the best week since April 2025 on hopes of a December rate cut to end the month almost unchanged from their record highs at the start of November – It was a wild month on Wall Street. Stocks fell through the first half of the month as the federal government shutdown dragged on, delaying the September and October jobs reports as well as several key inflation releases. The only major data point that arrived was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was required to calculate the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. The end of the government shutdown did not help the markets. Stocks continued to tumble for nearly two more weeks as investors were left without critical economic data. It wasn’t until the final days of the month that sentiment shifted. Several Federal Reserve officials softened their tone, pointing to weakening labor-market indicators and inflation that appears to be leveling off. This was a reversal from comments from Fed Chairman Powell and other Fed members early in the month that indicated that the Fed would not drop interest rates in December. Those comments ignited a sharp rebound as investors and economists interpreted the comments as indicating another ¼% rate drop would come in December. That helped stock markets end the month with their strongest weekly gain since April 2025, snapping a deep two-week slide and restoring some stability heading into December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month at 47,716.42, up 0.3% from 47,562.87 on October 31, 2025. The Dow is up 7.1% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the month at 6,849.09, up 0.1% from 6,840.20 on October 31, 2025. It is up 13.4% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed at 23,365.69, down 1.3% from 23,724.96 at the end of October. It is up 29% year-to-date.
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed the month at 4.02%, down from 4.11% on October 31, 2025. The 30-year treasury yield ended the month at 4.67%, unchanged from 4.67% on October 31, 2025. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 30, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.23%, up from 6.17% last month. The 15-year fixed was 5.51%, up from 5.41% last month. Rates fell in the last two days of November and were pretty much at the same rates they ended last month at.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
October home sales – The California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Real Estate release home sales data on the third week of each month for the previous month. Here is the October 2025 home sales recap. You can run a report on your city or zip code with the same data at RodeoRe.com
U.S. existing-home sales – October 2025 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.10 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in October, up 1.2% from the number of homes sold in September and up 1.7% from the number of homes sold last October. The median price paid for a home sold in the U.S. in October was $415,200, up 2.1% from $406,800 one year ago. There was a 4.4-month supply of homes for sale in October, up from a 4.1-month supply last October. First-time buyers accounted for 32% of all sales, up from 30% last month. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 16% of all sales, down from 15% in August. All cash purchases accounted for 39% of all sales, up from 30% last month. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 2% of all sales
California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 285,590 on an annualized basis in October, up 1.9% from 277,410 in September. Year-over-year sales were up 4.1% from a revised 271,370 annualized home sales last October. The statewide median price paid for a home in was $886,960 in October, down 0.2% from 888,740 in October 2024. The unsold inventory index showed that there was a 3.1-month supply of homes for sale in October. These numbers are a little deceiving. Prices have dropped more than the median price indicates. The median price is the midpoint of all homes sold. Basically, it’s the point where one half of the homes sold for more and one half of the homes sold for less. Usually, the median price is a good indicator of prices across the board. There are times when conditions impact that. This is one of those times. With stock market values at all-time highs, which they were in October, people who invested in the stock market are flusher than people who are not. Additionally, many of the factors that impact people’s ability and desire to buy a home affect people more in the lower income range than they affect people in higher income ranges. That’s happening now. Sales are down in all price ranges compared to any time prior to interest rates rising in mid-2022, but sales in the lower price ranges as a percentage of all sales are fewer than we would normally see, as those people are more impacted by inflation, don’t have stocks, etc.
The graph below shows CAR sales data by county for Southern California.  |
