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September jobs report delayed – Investors and the Federal Reserve were waiting for the September jobs report to gauge the status of the job market. It was scheduled to be released on Friday. Recent data showed that hiring had slowed dramatically, and the unemployment rate has been rising. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate. It is to control inflation and to maximize employment. Inflation has been rising, but hiring has stalled, and unemployment is rising. Fears of a deteriorating jobs market caused the Fed to make its first interest rate cut this year in September. With the Department of Labor and Statistics on shutdown, there was no official jobs report released. ADP, the world’s largest employer and payroll service, estimated that private payrolls shrank by 31,000 jobs in September, but they often are not in line with the government report.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 46,758.28, up 1.1% from 46,247.29 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 5% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,715.79, up 1.1% from 6,643.70 last week. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 11.2% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,780.51, up 1.3% from 22,484.07 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 16.1% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.13%, down from 4.20% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.71% down from 4.77% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 2, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.34%, up from 6.3% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.55%, up from 5.49% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Have a Great Weekend!

September releases show that inflation continued to creep up in August – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed that consumer prices rose 2.9% from one year ago, up from a 2.7% annual increase in July, but in line with analysts’ expectations. The CPI rate bottomed out at 2.3% in April but has risen steadily. This rise has been attributed to tariffs by both the Fed and economists. The core CPI rate, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.1% from one year ago, unchanged from July’s 12-month increase. Investors tend to look at Core CPI more than headline CPI because food and energy prices fluctuate in a more volatile manner, so remaining flat was viewed positively. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was released on Wednesday. Wholesale prices declined 0.1% for the month in August. This was a big relief to the markets after July’s 0.7% month-over-month increase. Year-over-year headline PPI was up 2.6% in August, down from an annual 3.3% increase in July. Core PPI showed wholesale prices were up 2.8% from one year ago, down from an annualized 3.7% in July. Wholesale inflation is usually a precursor to consumer inflation, as the increase in costs is later passed on to the consumer. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 2.7% in August, up from 2.6% in July. Core PCE rose 2.9% from one year ago.

The graph below shows the trajectory of the Consumer Price Index since 2021.

Stock markets ended the month at record highs- The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month at 46,397.86, up 1.9% from 45,544.86 on August 30, 2025. The Dow is up 4.2% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the month at 6,688.46, up 3.5% from 6,460.26 on August 30, 2025. It is up 10.7% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed at 22,660.01, up 5.6% from 21,455.25 at the end of August. It is up 15.5% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed the month at 4.16%, down from 4.23% on August 30, 2025. The 30-year treasury yield ended the month at 4.73%, down from 4.92% on August 30, 2025. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 25, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.30%, down from 6.56% last month. The 15-year fixed was 5.49%, down from 5.69% last month.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

August home sales – This week, the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors released their August 2025 home sales report. You can run a report on your city or zip code with the same data at RodeoRe.com.

U.S. existing-home sales – August 2025 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.0 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in August, up 1.8% from the number of homes sold last August. The median price paid for a home sold in the U.S. in August was $422,600, down from $435,300 in July, and up 0.2% from $414,200 one year ago. There was a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from a 4.2-month supply last August. First-time buyers accounted for 28% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 21% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 28% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 2% of all sales

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 264,240 on an annualized basis in August, up 0.9% from 261,820 in July. Year-over-year sales were down 0.2% from a revised 264,640 annualized home sales last August. The statewide median pric e paid for a home was $899,140 in August, up 1.2% from $888,740 in August 2024. The unsold inventory index showed that there was a 3.9-month supply of homes for sale in August, down from a 3.2-month supply of homes for sale one year ago.

The graph below shows CAR sales data by county for Southern California.

Fed’s Preferred index showed that inflation increased for a fourth straight month in August – The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 2.7% in August from one year ago. Excluding food and energy, the Core PCE rose 2.9% from one year ago. Those numbers were in line with analysts’ expectations. They expect the inflation rate to rise further this year and begin to decline next year as the full effect of tariffs sets in.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 46,247.29, down 0.2% from 46,315.27 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 3.8% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,643.70, down 0.3% from 6,664.36 last week. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 10% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,484.07, down 0.7% from 22,631.46 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 14.6% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields and mortgage rates increased this week after the final GDP revision showed that the economy was hotter than previously reported and that inflation was continuing to tick higher. – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.20%, up from 4.14% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.77, up from 4.75% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 25, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.3%, up from 6.26% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.49%, up from 5.41% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

August home sales – This week, the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors released their August 2025 home sales report. You can run a report on your city or zip code with the same data at RodeoRe.com.

U.S. existing-home sales – August 2025 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing-home sales totaled 4.0 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in August, up 1.8% from the number of homes sold last August. The median price paid for a home sold in the U.S. in August was $422,600, down from $435,300 in July, and up 0.2% from $414,200 one year ago. There was a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from a 4.2-month supply last August. First-time buyers accounted for 28% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchasesaccounted for 21% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 28% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 2% of all sales.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 264,240 on an annualized basis in August, up 0.9% from 261,820 in July. Year-over-year sales were down 0.2% from a revised 264,640 annualized home sales last August. The statewide median price paid for a home in was $899,140 in August, up 1.2% from $888,740 in August 2024. The unsold inventory index showed that there was a 3.9-month supply of homes for sale in August, down from a 3.2-month supply of homes for sale one year ago.

The graph below shows CAR sales data by county for Southern California.

Have a Great Weekend!

The Fed has a dual mandate: to control inflation and maintain full employment. Typically, when the economy slows, companies hire less, consumers spend less, and inflation drops. In those periods, balancing the dual mandate is less challenging. As Powell emphasized, however, this is a unique moment: inflation is rising while the job market has stalled. The Fed chose to cut rates out of concern that the labor market is slowing too quickly, even though inflation has been creeping up. For example, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, had steadily declined to 2.3% by April 2025. But since then, it has risen every month, reaching 2.9% in August – its highest level in eight months. Powell cited tariffs as a key factor behind the recent rise.

Long-term bond yields and mortgage rates ended the week higher than last Friday. Mortgage investors were also disappointed by Powell’s remarks. With the real estate market slowing, many had hoped the Fed would announce a resumption of long-term Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases – a tool that directly lowers long-term rates. That was not included in Powell’s outlook for 2025. The Fed does have that ability. During the financial crisis and again during COVID, it purchased large amounts of Treasury bonds and mortgage securities, expanding its balance sheet to record levels. In June 2022, with the economy strong and inflation surging, the Fed reversed course, raising short-term rates and selling off bond holdings to cool the economy. Since then, it has reduced its balance sheet by $2.19 trillion. Many analysts expected that, alongside the rate cut, the Fed would resume bond purchases to support housing, but Powell gave no indication of that.

The California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors will release their August home sales reports next week. Local data for your city or ZIP code is available now at RodeoRe.com.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,315.27, up 1%from 45,844.32 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 4% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed at 6,664.36, up 1.2% from 6,584.29 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 10.3% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed at 22,631.46, up 2.2% from 22,147.10 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 15.3% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.14%, up from 4.06% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.75%, up from 4.68% last week. We track bond yields closely because mortgage rates tend to follow them.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 18, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.26%, down from 6.35% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.41%, down from 5.5% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Have a Great Weekend!

Stock Markets – Stock markets continued to rise – Expectations of lower interest rates fueled another rally in stock markets this week – The Nasdaq ended another week at record highs, and the Dow and S&P ended the week just below Thursday’s record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 45,844.32, up 1% from 45,400.86 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 2.9% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,584.29, up 1.6% from 6,481.50 last week. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 9% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,147.10, up 2.1% from 21,700.39 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 12.8% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.06%, down from 4.10% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.68%, down from 4.78% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 11, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.35%, down from 6.5% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.5%, down from 5.6% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Have a Great Weekend!