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Economic news this week – It was a wild week. Stock markets continued to slide until Wednesday when President Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for 90 days on all countries except China in order to give them an opportunity to negotiate with him. Stocks rebounded from much of last week’s losses. Inflation reports showed that inflation cooled more than expected in March. Experts were quick to point out that those numbers were before the tariffs kicked in. With a trade war with China, they feel that future inflation will be higher. Usually when inflation cools bond yields and mortgage rates drop but bond yields and mortgage rates soared this week. The 10-year had its highest weekly percentage increase in rate since 1982. Consumer confidence plunged. The University of Michigan said that in its latest survey released Friday, it’s consumer confidence reading plumbed 11% month-over-month in April. That marked the second-lowest reading on record going back to 1952. They were surprised that it was lower than any reading during the Great Recession.

Inflation dropped sharply in March – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in March from one year earlier, down from a year-over-year increase of 2.8% in February. That matched the lowest annual inflation rate since last September, which was the lowest CPI rate since 2021. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-over-year, down from a 3% annual rate in February. That marked the lowest yearly increase in Core CPI in four years. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% in March from one year earlier, down sharply from a 3.2% year-over-year increase in February. The PPI gauges wholesale inflation which is considered an indicator of future consumer inflation as wholesale costs are often passed on to consumers.

The graph below shows the CPI rate since 2021

Stocks rebounded after President Trump announced that he was going to pause tariffs for 90 days on all countries except China in order to give them an opportunity to negotiate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 40,212.71, up 5% from 38,314.65, last week. It is down 9% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,363.36, up 5.7% from 5,074.09 last week. The S&P is down 11.2% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 16,724.46, up 7.3% from 15,587.08 last week. It is down 14.8% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields jump – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.48%, up from 4.01% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.85%, up from 4.41% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 10, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.62%, nearly unchanged from 6.64% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.82%, unchanged from 5.82% last week. Mortgage rates jumped with bond yields and ended the week with the 30-year fixed just above 7%. When we see such a large jump we often see a moderation. Hopefully, they will be lower next week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Existing home sales for March will be released at the end of next week by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. You can get those results for your city or zip code now at RodeoRe.com.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 10, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.62%, nearly unchanged from 6.64% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.82%, unchanged from 5.82% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Uncertainty, Tariffs, and Retaliation led the markets this week – I try not to use a lot of adjectives when I do these reports but it was a bloodbath on Wall Street this week! The Dow dropped 7.9%, the S&P dropped 9.1%, and the Nasdaq dropped 10%. The majority of the drop occurred on Thursday and Friday after Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech in the rose garden. In that speech, he detailed his tariff plans and outlined how much imports from each country would be charged. China immediately hit back with a 34% tariff on all imports coming from America. Over  $6 Trillion was wiped out in two days. Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 38,314.56, down 7.9% from 41,582.90 last week. It is down 14% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,074.08 down 9.1% from 5,580.94 last week. The S&P is down 16% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 15,587.08, down 10% from 17,322.99 last week. It is down 18.2% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.01%, down from 4.27%  last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.41%, down from 4.64%  last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Hiring picked up in March – The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that 228,000 new jobs were added in March, up from a revised 117,000 new jobs added in February. This number blew away economists that were surveyed and had forecasted 140,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, from 4.1% in February. The labor participation rate increases slightly as more workers entered the workforce. Average hourly wages increased 3.8% at an annual rate in March, down from a  4.1% annual rate in February. For inflation this was mostly good news. The unemployment rate rising and wages falling slows consumer spending. More hiring does not. Next month the effects of government job cuts will begin to be reflected in the numbers. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 4, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.64%, nearly unchanged from 6.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.82%, down from 5.89% last week. Rates dropped significantly on Thursday and Friday. The 30-year was approximately 6.5% at the end of the week.  The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 4, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.64%, nearly unchanged from 6.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.82%, down from 5.89% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

This week the Federal Reserve met to discuss monetary policy. On Wednesday they issued their monetary policy statement. While they left interest rates unchanged, they said that they are going to pause reducing their balance sheet in April. That means that the Fed will halt its sales of the treasury bond securities that they own. One of the ways that they brought long-term rates down during COVID and the financial crisis was to purchase treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Over the past three years they have been selling those assets to reduce their balance sheet. By halting those sales there will be fewer treasury bonds on the market which should drive yields and long-term interest rates lower. Bond yields and mortgage rates have dropped since the Fed made the announcement on Wednesday.

Stock markets -The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 41,985.35, up 1.2% from 41,488.19 last week. It is down 1.3% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,667.56, up 0.5% from 5,638.94 last week. The S&P is down 3.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 17,784.05, up 0.2% from 17,754.09 last week. It is down 7.9% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.25%, down from 4.31% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.59%, down from 4.62% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 20, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.67%, up slightly from 6.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.83%, up slightly from 5.80% last week. Rates ended the week lower after the Fed announced that they were going to pause reducing their balance sheet on Wednesday.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. These are February’s home sales figures.

U.S. existing-home sales February 2025 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing-home sales totaled 4.26-million units on a seasonal annualized rate in February, up 1.2% from an annualized rate of 4-million units last February. The median price for a home sold in the U.S. in February was $398,400 up 3.8% from $383,800 one year ago. There was a 3.5-month supply of homes for sale in February, up from a 3-month supply one year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 31% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 16% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 32% of all sales. Foreclosures and short salesaccounted for 3% of all sales.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 283,540 on an annualized basis in February, up 11.6% month-over-month from 254,110 homes sold on an annualized basis in January, and up 2.6% year-over-year from a revised 278,280 homes sold on an annualized basis. The statewide median price paid for a home in was $829,060 in February, up 2.8% from $806,480 one year ago. There was a 4-month supply of homes for sale in January, up from a 2.9-month supply of homes for sale last February.

The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for February was released on Friday. It is considered a preferred measurement of inflation by the Fed. it showed that the PCE price index grew at a 2.5% year-over-year rate, unchanged from January. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8% on an annual basis, up from a 2.7% annual increase in January, suggesting that inflation heated in February. Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 41,583,90, down 1% from 41,985.35 last week. It is down 2.3% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,580.94, down 1.5% from 5,667.56 last week. The S&P is down 5.1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 17,322.99, down 2.6% from 17,784.05 last week. It is down 10.3% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.27%, up slightly from 4.25% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.64%, up from 4.59% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 27, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.65%, down slightly from 6.67% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.89%, up from 5.83% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 27, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.65%, down slightly from 6.67% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.89%, up from 5.83% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

This week the Federal Reserve met to discuss monetary policy. On Wednesday they issued their monetary policy statement. While they left interest rates unchanged, they said that they are going to pause reducing their balance sheet in April. That means that the Fed will halt its sales of the treasury bond securities that they own. One of the ways that they brought long-term rates down during COVID and the financial crisis was to purchase treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Over the past three years, they have been selling those assets to reduce their balance sheet. By halting those sales there will be fewer treasury bonds on the market which should drive yields and long-term interest rates lower. Bond yields and mortgage rates have dropped since the Fed made the announcement on Wednesday. Stock markets -The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 41,985.35, up 1.2% from 41,488.19 last week. It is down 1.3% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,667.56, up 0.5% from 5,638.94 last week. The S&P is down 3.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 17,784.05, up 0.2% from 17,754.09 last week. It is down 7.9% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.25%, down from 4.31% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.59%, down from 4.62% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 20, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.67%, up slightly from 6.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.83%, up slightly from 5.80% last week. Rates ended the week lower after the Fed announced that they were going to pause reducing their balance sheet on Wednesday. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. These are February’s home sales figures. U.S. existing-home sales February 2025 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.26-million units on a seasonal annualized rate in February, up 1.2% from an annualized rate of 4-million units last February. The median price for a home sold in the U.S. in February was $398,400 up 3.8% from $383,800 one year ago. There was a 3.5-month supply of homes for sale in February, up from a 3-month supply one year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 31% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 16% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 32% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 3% of all sales. California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 283,540 on an annualized basis in February, up 11.6% month-over-month from 254,110 homes sold on an annualized basis in January, and up 2.6% year-over-year from a revised 278,280 homes sold on an annualized basis. The statewide median price paid for a home in was $829,060 in February, up 2.8% from $806,480 one year ago. There was a 4-month supply of homes for sale in January, up from a 2.9-month supply of homes for sale last February. The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California. Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 20, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.67%, up slightly from 6.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.83%, up slightly from 5.8% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Inflation eased in February – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% in February from one year earlier, down from a year-over-year increase of 3% in January. The CPI rate had increased steadily since hitting a 3 ½ year low of 2.4% in September until February. Perhaps it will continue to tick down. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.1% year-over-year, down from a 3.3% annual rate in January. That marked the smallest yearly increase in Core CPI since April 2021. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.2% from one year earlier, down sharply from a 3.7% year-over-year increase in January. The PPI gauges wholesale inflation which is considered an indicator of future consumer inflation as wholesale costs are often passed on to consumers. Stock markets – New tariffs and threats of escalating tariffs hit stock markets hard again this week – Fearing the ramifications of a trade war with Canada, the European Union, China, and Mexico investors sold stocks again this week. While we did have a slight rebound on Friday, major indexes have lost about 5% in the last two weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 41,488.19, down 3.1% from 42,801.72 last week. It is down 2.5% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,638.94, down 1.1% from 5,710.20 last week. The S&P is down 4.1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 17,754.09, down 2.4% from 18,196.22 last week. It is down 8.1% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields – Usually when stock markets drop investors rush to the safety of treasury bonds and yields fall. Additionally, when inflation drops bond yields and mortgage rates drop as well. That did not happen in the last two weeks because investors are worried that tariff costs will be passed along to consumers and inflation will reignite. The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.31%, unchanged from 4.32% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.62%, unchanged from 4.62% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 13, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.65%, almost unchanged from 6.63% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.8%, unchanged from 5.79% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. Have a Great Weekend!

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