Economic Update | Week Ending May 3, 2025

Employees added 177,000 jobs in April despite tariff uncertainty – The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that 177,000 new jobs were added in April. That was slightly lower than a revised 185,000 new jobs added in March, but it far exceeded economists’ expectations of 130,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The labor participation rate increases slightly as more workers entered the workforce. Average hourly wages increased 3.8% year-over-year in April, unchanged from March’s annual increase.

Stock markets have rebounded – Stock markets have rebounded over the past two weeks with the S&P up about 8%. While stock markets were on track for their worst April since the depression following the announced tariffs, they have jumped higher over the past two weeks at the highest rate since late 2020 when they rebounded from the drop due to the pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 41,317.43, up 3% from 40,113.50 last week. It is down 7.2% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,686.67, up 2.9% from 5,525.21 last week. The S&P is down 5.9% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 17,977.73, up 3.4% from 17,382.94 last week. It is down 8.4% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields jump – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.33%, up from 4.29% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.79%, up from 4.74% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 1, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.76%, down from 6.81% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.92%, nearly unchanged from 5.94% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Economic Update | Month Ending April 30, 2025

Tariffs – This was a wild month for both stock and bond markets. There were wild swings and at one point stock markets were headed for the worst April since the Great Depression before recovering to end the month slightly lower than they were at the start of the month. On April 2 President Trump in his “Liberation Day” speech announced tariffs on about 90 countries which panicked investors and markets worldwide. A full-scale sell-off began and stock markets plummeted, but recent developments have enabled the markets to recover much of those early losses. On April 9, following the initial sell-off, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on almost all countries except China. An all-out Trade war followed with China raising their tariffs to 125% on U.S. imports and Trump raising tariffs to 145% on all goods coming from China. Over the last two weeks, both sides have toned down the rhetoric as both countries have experienced a slowing in their economies. On April 12th President Trump exempted smartphones, computer monitors, chips, and various electronics from the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Administration officials have spoken about progress in trade negotiations. This has calmed investors from their initial panic. At month’s end, many administration officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “there was an opportunity for a big deal” on trade between the U.S. and China in his address to the Institute of International Finance. Last Friday, President Trump said that he had negotiated 200 trade deals that would be completed within three to four weeks. On April 28 auto tariffs were eased and a tax credit for auto manufacturers in the U.S. was proposed. Investors, world leaders, economists, and consumers are feeling better about tariffs than they were when the initial announcement was made on April 2nd as the administration has eased off on the size and scope of the tariffs.

Inflation and interest rates – Inflation subsided in March – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in March from one year earlier, down from a year-over-year increase of 2.8% in February. That matched the lowest annual inflation rate since last September, which was the lowest CPI rate since 2021. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-over-year, down from a 3% annual rate in February. That marked the lowest yearly increase in Core CPI in four years. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% in March from one year earlier, down sharply from a 3.2% year-over-year increase in February. The PPI gauges wholesale inflation which is considered an indicator of future consumer inflation as wholesale costs are often passed on to consumers. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose 2.3% from one year ago. With inflation looking under control, it is unfortunate that mortgage interest rates and bond yields are so high. In September 2024, the CPI was at 2.4% and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. That marked the lowest inflation rate since early 2021 and the highest unemployment rate since 2021. The 10-year bond yield fell to 3.7% and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to just under 6%. After the election, inflation picked up and interest rates increased as investors and consumers felt that a change in administration would bring less regulation, and lower tax rates which in turn would boost the economy. Over the past couple of months, the economy has slowed. The latest GDP figure released on April 30th showed that the economy shrunk in the first quarter of 2025. It declined 0.3% from the previous quarter, its first quarterly decline since 2022. Normally lower inflation, slower growth, and higher unemployment would lead to lower interest rates. Today we are at the same unemployment rate, and CPI rate as we were last September, but instead of mortgage rates being just under 6% they are about 6.75%, and 10-year bond yields are about 4.2% rather than 3.7% they were when we had similar numbers last September. The only explanation is that investors fear that tariffs will reignite inflation, which would usually drop as the economy slows. Time will tell what will happen. There is a lot of uncertainty out there.

The graph below shows the CPI rate since 2021

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Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month at 40,669.36, down 3.2% from 42,001.76 on March 31, 2025. The Dow is down 4.4% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the month at 5,569.06, down 1.6% from 5,661.85 on March 31, 2025. It is down 5.3% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed at 17,446.34, up 0.8% from 17,299.29 on March 31, 2025. It is down 9.7% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield closed the month at 4.17%, down from 4.23% on March 31, 2025. The 30-year treasury yield ended the month at 4.66%, up from 4.59% on March 31, 2025. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 1st, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.76%, up from 6.65% in March. The 15-year fixed was 5.92%, up from 5.89% in March.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.Image

Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. These are March’s home sales figures.

U.S. existing-home sales March 2025 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing-home sales totaled 4.02 million units on a seasonally annualized rate in March, down 5.9% month-over-month from an annualized rate of 4.26 million units in February. Year-over-year sales slipped 2.4% from an annualized rate of 4.12 million units. The median price for a home sold in the U.S. in March was $403,700, up 2.7% from $392,900 one year ago. There was a 4-month supply of homes for sale in March, up from a 3.2-month supply one year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 32% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 15% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 26% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 3% of all sales.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 277,030 on an annualized basis in March, up 4.9% year-over-year from a revised 264,200 homes sold on an annualized basis. The statewide median price paid for a home was $884,370 in March, up 3.5% from $854,370 one year ago. There was a 3.5-month supply of homes for sale in March, up from a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale last March.

The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California.

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Mortgage Rate Update | May 1, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 1, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.76%, down from 6.81% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.92%, nearly unchanged from 5.94% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Economic Update | Week Ending April 26, 2025

Weekly Economic Upate
This week major stock market indexes jumped, and bond yields settled as investors have become less uncertain about the economy. Following the April 2nd announcement of tariffs on about 90 countries which panicked investors and markets worldwide, there have been a lot of developments which have calmed the markets. On April 9th, following the initial sell off, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on almost all countries except China. An all-out Trade war followed with China raising their tariffs and Trump raising tariffs to 145% on all goods coming from China. Over the last two weeks, both sides have toned down the rhetoric as economic forecasts for both countries were not positive. On April 12th President Trump exempted smartphones, computer monitors, chips, and various electronics from the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Administration officials have spoken about progress in trade negotiations. This has calmed investors from their initial panic. Last week President Trump spoke about firing Fed Chairman Powell, who he referred to as a loser. Investors again became less optimistic, stock markets dropped, and bond yields and interest rates jumped, but on Tuesday President Trump said that “he has no intentions of firing Powell.” On Wednesday Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “There was an opportunity for a big deal” on trade between the U.S. and China in his address to the Institute of International Finance. On Friday, President Trump said that he has negotiated 200 trade deals that would be completed within three to four weeks. Investors, world leaders, economists, and consumers are feeling better about the ramifications of the tariffs than they were when the initial announcement was made on April 2nd.

Stocks Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 40,113.50, up 2.5% from 39,142.23 last week. It is down 10% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,525.21, up 4.6% from 5,282.70 last week. The S&P is down 8.7% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 17,382.94, up 6.7% from 16,286.45 last week. It is down 11.4% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields jump – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.29%, down from 4.34% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.74%, down from 4.80% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 24, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.81%, nearly unchanged from 6.83% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.94%, downfrom 6.03% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. existing-home sales March 2025 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing-home sales totaled 4.04-million units on a seasonal annualized rate in March, down 5.9% month-over-month from an annualized rate of 4.26-million units in February. Year-over-year sales slipped 2.4% from an annualized rate of 4.12 million units. The median price for a home sold in the U.S. in March was $403,700, up 2.7% from $392,900 one year ago. There was a 4-month supply of homes for sale in February, up from a 3.2-month supply one year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 32% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 15% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 26% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 2% of all sales.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | April 24, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 24, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.81%, nearly unchanged from 6.83% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.94%, down from 6.03% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Economic Update | Week Ending April 19, 2025

Weekly Economic Upate
Stocks Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 39,142.23, down 2.7% from 40,212.71 last week. It is down 12.1% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,282.70, down 1.3% from 5,353.26 last week. The S&P is down 12.5% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 16,286.45, down 2.6% from 16,724.46 last week. It is down 17% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields jumped – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.34%, down from 4.48% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.80%, down from 4.85% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 17, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.83%, upfrom 6.62% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 6.03%, up from 5.82% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Home sales figures for March were released by the California Association of Real Estate this week. The National Association of Realtors will release March figures next week.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 277,030 on an annualized basis in March, up 4.9% year-over-year from a revised 264,200 homes sold on an annualized basis. The statewide median price paid for a home was $884,370 in March, up 3% from $854,370 one year ago. There was a 3.5-month supply of homes for sale in January, up from a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale last March.

The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | April 17, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 17, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.83%, up from 6.62% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 6.03%, up from 5.82% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Economic Update | Week Ending April 12, 2025

Weekly Economic Upate

Economic news this week – It was a wild week. Stock markets continued to slide until Wednesday when President Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for 90 days on all countries except China in order to give them an opportunity to negotiate with him. Stocks rebounded from much of last week’s losses. Inflation reports showed that inflation cooled more than expected in March. Experts were quick to point out that those numbers were before the tariffs kicked in. With a trade war with China, they feel that future inflation will be higher. Usually when inflation cools bond yields and mortgage rates drop but bond yields and mortgage rates soared this week. The 10-year had its highest weekly percentage increase in rate since 1982. Consumer confidence plunged. The University of Michigan said that in its latest survey released Friday, it’s consumer confidence reading plumbed 11% month-over-month in April. That marked the second-lowest reading on record going back to 1952. They were surprised that it was lower than any reading during the Great Recession.

Inflation dropped sharply in March – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% in March from one year earlier, down from a year-over-year increase of 2.8% in February. That matched the lowest annual inflation rate since last September, which was the lowest CPI rate since 2021. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-over-year, down from a 3% annual rate in February. That marked the lowest yearly increase in Core CPI in four years. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% in March from one year earlier, down sharply from a 3.2% year-over-year increase in February. The PPI gauges wholesale inflation which is considered an indicator of future consumer inflation as wholesale costs are often passed on to consumers.

The graph below shows the CPI rate since 2021

Stocks rebounded after President Trump announced that he was going to pause tariffs for 90 days on all countries except China in order to give them an opportunity to negotiate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 40,212.71, up 5% from 38,314.65, last week. It is down 9% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,363.36, up 5.7% from 5,074.09 last week. The S&P is down 11.2% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 16,724.46, up 7.3% from 15,587.08 last week. It is down 14.8% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields jump – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.48%, up from 4.01% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.85%, up from 4.41% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 10, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.62%, nearly unchanged from 6.64% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.82%, unchanged from 5.82% last week. Mortgage rates jumped with bond yields and ended the week with the 30-year fixed just above 7%. When we see such a large jump we often see a moderation. Hopefully, they will be lower next week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Existing home sales for March will be released at the end of next week by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. You can get those results for your city or zip code now at RodeoRe.com.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | April 10, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 10, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.62%, nearly unchanged from 6.64% last week. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.82%, unchanged from 5.82% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Economic Update | Week Ending April 5, 2025

Weekly Economic Upate
Uncertainty, Tariffs, and Retaliation led the markets this week – I try not to use a lot of adjectives when I do these reports but it was a bloodbath on Wall Street this week! The Dow dropped 7.9%, the S&P dropped 9.1%, and the Nasdaq dropped 10%. The majority of the drop occurred on Thursday and Friday after Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech in the rose garden. In that speech, he detailed his tariff plans and outlined how much imports from each country would be charged. China immediately hit back with a 34% tariff on all imports coming from America. Over  $6 Trillion was wiped out in two days.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 38,314.56, down 7.9% from 41,582.90 last week. It is down 14% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,074.08 down 9.1% from 5,580.94 last week. The S&P is down 16% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 15,587.08, down 10% from 17,322.99 last week. It is down 18.2% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.01%, down from 4.27%  last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.41%, down from 4.64%  last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Hiring picked up in March – The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that 228,000 new jobs were added in March, up from a revised 117,000 new jobs added in February. This number blew away economists that were surveyed and had forecasted 140,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, from 4.1% in February. The labor participation rate increases slightly as more workers entered the workforce. Average hourly wages increased 3.8% at an annual rate in March, down from a  4.1% annual rate in February. For inflation this was mostly good news. The unemployment rate rising and wages falling slows consumer spending. More hiring does not. Next month the effects of government job cuts will begin to be reflected in the numbers.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 4, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.64%, nearly unchanged from 6.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.82%, down from 5.89% last week. Rates dropped significantly on Thursday and Friday. The 30-year was approximately 6.5% at the end of the week. 

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Have a Great Weekend!