| It was another wild month on Wall Street! It started with a jobs report showing that 178,000 new jobs were added in March. That was triple the 60,000 that expert analysts had forecasted, and a turnaround from February, when there was a net job loss. This showed that the job market was not as dire as previously felt. Then a ceasefire was announced with Iran, which also brought about a rebound from March’s steep losses after the war began. Third-quarter corporate earnings generally beat expectations, and tech and AI profits were stronger than expected as well. Inflation reports were mixed. The CPI report showed that inflation had jumped, but Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was still under control. Unfortunately, on April 30, the PCE Personal Consumption Expenditures report was released, which showed that inflation was increasing more rapidly due to surging energy costs, which were spilling over into other goods and services. By the month’s end, the Dow surged 7.3% for the month, and the S&P and Nasdaq jumped 10.4% and 15.3%, respectively. That made up all their steep losses when the war started in March and more.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 26, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.30%, down slightly from 6.38% last month. The 15-year fixed was 5.64%, down from 5.75% last month. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.39%, up from 4.31% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.97%, up from 4.91% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Home sales figures are released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. Here is a summary of the March existing home sales reports. U.S. existing-home sales – March 2026 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 3.98 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in March, down 3.6% from the number of homes sold in February. Year-over-year home sales were down 1% from the number of homes sold last March. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in March was $408,800, up 1.4% year-over-year from $403,100 last March. California existing-home sales – The median price soared 7.1% in March as inventory tightened – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 265,320 on an adjusted annualized basis in March, down 3.5% from 274,820 annualized sales in February and down 2.5% from 272,020 last March. The statewide median price paid for a home was $889,190 in March, up 7.1% from $830,370 in February. Year-over-year, March’s median price was up 0.4% from $885,900 one year ago. There were fewer listings in February. Housing inventory declined 17.5% month-over-month in March. The unsold inventory index dropped to a 3.3-month supply of homes for sale in March, down from 4 months in February. Below is the housing data for Southern California by County.
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Economic Update | Week Ending May 2, 2026
Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 49,499.27, down 0.5% from 49,223.80 last week. It is up 2.4% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,230.12, up 0.5% from 7,164.83 last week. The S&P is up 4.7% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 25,114.44, up 1.5% from 24,833.05 last week. It is up 6.8% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.
