Economic Update | Month Ending October 31, 2024
Economic Update | Week Ending November 1, 2024
U.S. Hiring Stalled in October – The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that only 12,000 new jobs were added in October, down from a revised 223,000 new jobs added in September, and well below what economists expected. The two hurricanes and the Boeing and other related strikes were cited as the reason for the drastic drop. It is not possible to put a number on what hiring would have occurred in southern states that are still assessing damage from two devastating hurricanes in October, or how many strike-related job losses there were. Normally a drop in hiring like this would cause the stock market to drop sharply and bond yields and mortgage rates to drop as well, but it was exactly the opposite on Friday after the report was digested, as investors accepted the hurricane and strike excuse for the low jobs number. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, unchanged from September and down from 4.2% in August. Average hourly wages increased 4% year-over-year in October, down from a 4.2% annual increase in September, but still higher than the 3.8% annual increase in July and August.
Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,052.19, down 1.15% from 42,114.40 last week. It is up 11.6% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,718.80, down 1.5% from 5,808.12 last week. The S&P is up 19.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,239.92, down 1.5% from 18,518.61 last week. It is up 21.5% year-to-date.
U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.37%, up from 4.25% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.57%, up from 4.51% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 31, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.72%, up from 6.54% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.99%, up from 5.71% last week.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Have a great weekend!
Mortgage Rate Update | October 31, 2024
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 31, 2024, were as follows:
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.72%, up from 6.54% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.99%, up from 5.71% last week.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.
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Economic Update | Week Ending October 26, 2024
| Stock markets sold off this week as investors took profits and moved to bonds, ended six weeks of gains and moving the Dow and S&P off their record highs last week. Bond yields have spiked as recent data suggests that the economy is picking up steam which could reignite inflation. This jump in bond yields began after the September jobs report which revealed that 254,000 new jobs were created, over 100,000 more new jobs than expected. Wages also jumped from their July and August levels. New jobless claims this week were lower than they were in July and August when it looked like hiring was stalling for the second straight week. Consumer confidence also jumped this week. Unfortunately, a heating economy could cause inflation to increase. That pushes up bond yields and mortgage rates. Both are a little over 1/2% higher than they were just a month ago when the Fed dropped short term rates. The Nasdaq closed the week slightly higher and just below its all-time high set July 10, as tech company profits are coming in strong.
Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,114.40, down 2.7% from 42,275.91 last week. It is up 11.2% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,808.12, down 0.6% from 5,864.67 last week. The S&P is up 21.8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,518.61, up 0.2% from 18,489.55 last week. It is up 23.4% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.25%, up from 4.08% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.51%, up from 4.38% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 17, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.54%, up from 6.44% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.71%, up from 5.63% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors. These are September’s home sales figures. U.S. existing-home sales September 2024 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 3.84 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in September, down 3.5% from an annualized rate of 3.98 million units last September. The median price for a home sold in the U.S. in September was $404,500, up 3% from $392,700 one year ago. There was a 4.3-month supply of homes for sale in September, up from a 3.4-month supply one year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 26% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 18% of all sales. All-cash purchases accounted for 30% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 2% of all sales. Have a great weekend! |
Mortgage Rate Update | October 24, 2024
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 24, 2024, were as follows:
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.54%, up from 6.44% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.71%, up from 5.63% last week.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.
Economic Update | Week Ending October 19, 2024
| Investors pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time highs again this week. That marked six straight weeks of gains. When the Fed began raising rates in 2022 it was widely expected that they would push the country into a recession to tame inflation. Now inflation is closer to acceptable levels and the Fed has begun to lower rates. Many indicators show that the economy has remained strong. Adding to the strong jobs report at the beginning of the month, new unemployment claims were down this week. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.4% in September, exceeding expectations of a 0.3% monthly gain. Excluding auto sales, retail sales rose 0.5% in September. That far exceeded the 0.1% gain experts forecasted for a monthly increase in retail sales excluding autos. Third quarter profits are beginning to be reported. Early indications are that we will see another strong quarter.
Stock markets – The Dow and the S&P 500 closed the week at record highs, while the Nasdaq closed just off its record high set in July as investors reacted to positive inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 43,275.91, up 1% from 42,863.86 last week. It is up 14.8% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,864.67, up 0.8% from 5,815.03 last week. The S&P is up 23% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,489.55, up 0.8% from 18,342.94 last week. It is up 23.2% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields jumped on Friday after the September jobs report was released – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.08%, unchanged from 4.08% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.38%, unchanged from 4.39% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 17, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.44%, up from 6.32% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.63%, up from 5.41% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. These are September’s home sales figures from the California Association of Realtors. The National Association of Realtors will release their September home sales report next week. September California existing-home sales report – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 253,010 on an annualized rate in September, down 3.4% from 262,050 homes on an annualized rate in August, yet up 5.1% from a revised 240,840 homes sold on an annualized basis last September. The statewide median price paid for a home in September was $868,150, down 2.3% from $888,740 in August, and up 2.9% from $843,500 one year ago. There was a 3.6-month supply of homes for sale in September, up from a 3.2-month supply in August, and up from a 2.8-month supply in September 2023. The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California.
Have a great weekend! |
Rodeo Realty Welcomes!
Explore our website for the most up-to-date information on real estate data and local news!
Mortgage Rate Update | October 17, 2024
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 17, 2024, were as follows:
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.44%, up from 6.32% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.63%, up from 5.41% last week.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.
Economic update | Week Ending October 12, 2024
| Economic news – This week the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) were released. The CPI, one of the broadest measures of inflation showed that consumer prices increased 2.4% from one year ago, down from a 2.5% annual increase in August. The 2.4% increase in September marked the smallest annual increase in inflation since February 2021. The PPI, a measure of wholesale prices, showed prices for goods and services that producers pay increased by 1.8% from last September. These reports were quite favorable to investors and stocks rallied to end the week higher. After last week’s jobs report that showed employers added 254,000 new jobs in September and that wages rose more than 4% year-over-year investors feared that inflation could reignite. More people working and higher wages lead to more consumer spending which can cause higher inflation. At least for September, inflation continued to cool. Bond yields and mortgage rates continued to increase. Investors and lenders will need to see more evidence that the jobs market is not heating back up again and that inflation is not about to pick back up before those long-term rates come back down.
The graph below shows the history of the Consumer Price Index since 2021.
Stock markets – The Dow and the S&P 500 closed the week at record highs, while the Nasdaq closed just off its record high set in July as investors reacted to positive inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,863.86, up 1.2% from 42,352.75 last week. It is up 13.7% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,815.03, up 1.1% from 5,751.07 last week. The S&P is up 21.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,342.94, up 1.1% from 18,137.85 last week. It is up 22.2% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields jumped on Friday after the September jobs report was released – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.08%, up from 3.89% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.39%, upfrom 4.26% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 10, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.32%, up from 6.12% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.41%, up from 5.25% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. Have a great weekend! |
