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Long-term Treasury yields surged this week, with the 10-year reaching its highest level in nearly three years and the 30-year hitting its highest level since 2007. The rise in bond yields pushed mortgage rates higher, creating another challenge for homebuyers and affordability. Despite the recent increase in rates, the economy continues to show resilience, employment remains solid, and underlying inflation has shown signs of gradually improving. Housing demand has also remained surprisingly resilient given the current interest-rate environment. The Core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, was 1% below the overall inflation rate, showing that much of the uptick in inflation since the Iran conflict began is due to high energy costs. Should energy costs moderate in the months ahead, Treasury and mortgage rates could begin to ease, which would improve affordability and provide a meaningful boost to housing activity.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August – The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August CPI report on Friday. It showed that the CPI rose 0.4% in August, following a 0.1% increase in July. Consumer prices were 3.4% higher than one year ago, unchanged from July’s annual rate. Much of the monthly increase was driven by energy costs, with gasoline prices jumping 3.9%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month but improved slightly on a year-over-year basis, falling to 2.4% from 2.5% in July. While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target, the continued moderation in core inflation is encouraging. The higher headline number, largely influenced by energy prices, could make the Federal Reserve more cautious as it considers the direction of interest rates in the months ahead.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 10, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.76%, up from 6.71% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.09%, up from 6.04% last week.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.95%, up from 4.78% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.37%, up from 5.24% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,573.29, down 1.6% from 53,414.25 last week. It is up 9.4% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,656.95, down 0.8% from 7,718.60 last week. The S&P is up 11.8% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,333.04, down 0.7% from 26,506.99 last week. It is up 13.3% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Stock markets – Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month at 53,185.90, up 1.3% from 52,485.03 last month. The Dow is up 10.7% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,686.14, up 2.6% from 7,489.72 last month. The S&P is up 12.3% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,370.89, up 3.9% from 25,373.85 at the end of July. The Nasdaq is up 13.5% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields — The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed the month at 4.75%, unchanged from 4.75% on July 30, 2026. The 30-year US treasury bond yield ended the month at 5.25%, almost unchanged from 5.27% on July 30, 2026. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

U.S. existing-home sales – July 2026 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.06 units on an annualized basis in June, down 1.7% month-over-month from 4.09 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in June but up 1.4% from the number of homes sold last July. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in June was $434,100, up 2% from one year ago. There was 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in July, unchanged from June. First-time home buyers accounted for 29% of all homes sold, 26% of all sales were cash buyers, 14% of sales were investors or second home buyers, and 2% of sales were foreclosure or short sales.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 263,170 on an adjusted annualized basis in July, down 6.0% from 279,880 in June, but up 1.1% from 260,250 annualized sales in July 2025. The statewide median price paid for a home was $887,680 in July, down 1.9% from $904,640 in June, but up 0.3% from $885,180 last July. Housing inventory loosened slightly in July but remained tighter than one year ago. The Unsold Inventory Index showed that there was a 3.4-month supply of homes for sale in July, up from 3.1 months in June, but down from a 3.7-month supply in July 2025.

The economy continues to send mixed signals. This week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index, showed inflation running at 3.7% year over year in July, up slightly from 3.6% in June, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained at 3.3%. The report shows that inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, making the path for interest rates less certain and reducing hopes for lower rates in the near term.

The real estate market remains very active. Single-family home prices have remained remarkably stable, with well-priced homes continuing to attract buyers. The condominium market, however, remains more challenging, with softer demand and downward pressure on prices in many areas.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of August 27, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.66%, nearly unchanged from 6.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.98%, up slightly from 5.95% last week.

U.S. Treasury Bonds- The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.73%, almost unchanged from 4.74% last week. The 30-year Treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.22%, down from 5.27% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 53,559.99, down 0.3% from 53,732.41 last week. It is up 11.4% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,611.76, down 0.8% from 7,674.37 last week. The S&P is up 11.2% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,402.42, up 0.9% from 26,170.46 last week. It is up 13.6% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

The economy continues to send mixed signals as the conflict with Iran remains a major source of uncertainty. Oil prices moved sharply higher this week, with WTI crude closing at about $87 a barrel and Brent at $94, as tensions with Iran and continued disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global oil supplies. Higher oil prices are being felt by consumers at the pump, with the national average price of regular gasoline now about $4.11 a gallon, up from $4.07 last week and the highest ever recorded for this time of year. There are signs that consumers are becoming more cautious, with many households concentrating their spending on necessities and postponing larger purchases. The labor market has also weakened, although unemployment claims remain low. The combination of slower hiring, cautious consumer spending and higher energy costs bears watching closely, particularly if the war continues to keep oil and gasoline prices elevated. At the same time, stock markets remain near record highs and the real estate market has continued to be fairly active with prices remaining very stable.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of August 20, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.65%, nearly unchanged from 6.67% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.95%, nearly unchanged from 5.96% last week.

U.S. Treasury Bonds- The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.68%, up from 4.68% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.25% up from 5.25% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 53,732.41 down 0.6% from 53,732.41 last week. It is up 11.8% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,785.76, up 0.4% from 7,786.76 last week. The S&P is up 13.7% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,729.16, up 0.1% from26,729.16 last week. It is up 15% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. existing-home sales – July 2026 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing-home sales totaled 4.06 units on an annualized basis in June, down 1.7% month-over-month from 4.09 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in June but up 1.4% from the number of homes sold last July. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in June was $434,100, up 2%from one year ago. There was 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in July, unchanged from June. First-time home buyers accounted for 29% of all homes sold, 26% of all sales were cash buyers, 14% of sales were investors or second home buyers, and 2% of sales were foreclosure or short sales.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 263,170 on an adjusted annualized basis in July, down 6.0% from 279,880 in June, but up 1.1% from 260,250 annualized sales in July 2025. The statewide median price paid for a home was $887,680 in July, down 1.9% from $904,640 in June, but up 0.3% from $885,180 last July. Housing inventory loosened slightly in July but remained tighter than one year ago. The Unsold Inventory Index showed that there was a 3.4-month supply of homes for sale in July, up from 3.1 months in June, but down from a 3.7-month supply in July 2025.