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Investors pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time highs again this week. That marked six straight weeks of gains. When the Fed began raising rates in 2022 it was widely expected that they would push the country into a recession to tame inflation. Now inflation is closer to acceptable levels and the Fed has begun to lower rates. Many indicators show that the economy has remained strong. Adding to the strong jobs report at the beginning of the month, new unemployment claims were down this week. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.4% in September, exceeding expectations of a 0.3% monthly gain. Excluding auto sales, retail sales rose 0.5% in September. That far exceeded the 0.1% gain experts forecasted for a monthly increase in retail sales excluding autos. Third quarter profits are beginning to be reported. Early indications are that we will see another strong quarter. Stock markets – The Dow and the S&P 500 closed the week at record highs, while the Nasdaq closed just off its record high set in July as investors reacted to positive inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 43,275.91, up 1% from 42,863.86 last week. It is up 14.8% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,864.67, up 0.8% from 5,815.03 last week. The S&P is up 23% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,489.55, up 0.8% from 18,342.94 last week. It is up 23.2% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields jumped on Friday after the September jobs report was released – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.08%, unchanged from 4.08% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.38%, unchanged from 4.39% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 17, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.44%, up from 6.32% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.63%, up from 5.41% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. These are September’s home sales figures from the California Association of Realtors. The National Association of Realtors will release their September home sales report next week. September California existing-home sales report – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 253,010 on an annualized rate in September, down 3.4% from 262,050 homes on an annualized rate in August, yet up 5.1% from a revised 240,840 homes sold on an annualized basis last September. The statewide median price paid for a home in September was $868,150, down 2.3% from $888,740 in August, and up 2.9% from $843,500 one year ago. There was a 3.6-month supply of homes for sale in September, up from a 3.2-month supply in August, and up from a 2.8-month supply in September 2023. The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California. Have a great weekend!

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Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 17, 2024, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.44%, up from 6.32% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.63%, up from 5.41% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Economic news – This week the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) were released. The CPI, one of the broadest measures of inflation showed that consumer prices increased 2.4% from one year ago, down from a 2.5% annual increase in August. The 2.4% increase in September marked the smallest annual increase in inflation since February 2021. The PPI, a measure of wholesale prices, showed prices for goods and services that producers pay increased by 1.8% from last September. These reports were quite favorable to investors and stocks rallied to end the week higher. After last week’s jobs report that showed employers added 254,000 new jobs in September and that wages rose more than 4% year-over-year investors feared that inflation could reignite. More people working and higher wages lead to more consumer spending which can cause higher inflation. At least for September, inflation continued to cool. Bond yields and mortgage rates continued to increase. Investors and lenders will need to see more evidence that the jobs market is not heating back up again and that inflation is not about to pick back up before those long-term rates come back down. The graph below shows the history of the Consumer Price Index since 2021. Stock markets – The Dow and the S&P 500 closed the week at record highs, while the Nasdaq closed just off its record high set in July as investors reacted to positive inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,863.86, up 1.2% from 42,352.75 last week. It is up 13.7% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,815.03, up 1.1% from 5,751.07 last week. The S&P is up 21.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,342.94, up 1.1% from 18,137.85 last week. It is up 22.2% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields jumped on Friday after the September jobs report was released – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.08%, up from 3.89% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.39%, upfrom 4.26% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 10, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.32%, up from 6.12% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.41%, up from 5.25% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. Have a great weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 10, 2024, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.32%, up from 6.12% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.41%, up from 5.25% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Explore our website for the most up-to-date information on real estate data and local news!

RodeoRe.com

U.S. Hiring Surges – Employers added a quarter of a million jobs in September – The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that 254,000 new jobs were added in September, which exceeded the revised 159,000 new jobs that were added in August. It also blew away economists who were surveyed and forecasted 150,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in September from 4.2% in August. Average hourly wages increased 4% year-over-year in September, up from a 3.8% annual increase in August. More people working, lower unemployment, and higher wages are inflationary. Bond yields and mortgage rates rose after the jobs report was released. Stock markets – Stock markets were on track for their first weekly loss in five weeks, but surged again on Friday after the September jobs report was released to end the week higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,352.75, up 0.1% from 42,313.00 last week. It is up 12.4% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,751.07, up 0.2% from 5,738.18 last week. The S&P is up 20.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,137.85, up 0.1% from 18,119.59 last week. It is up 20.8% year-to-date. U.S. Treasury bond yields jumped on Friday after the September jobs report was released – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.98%, up from 3.75% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.26%, up from 4.10% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 3, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.12%, up from 6.08% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.25%, up from 5.16% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. Have a great weekend!

Explore our website for the most up-to-date information on real estate data and local news!

RodeoRe.com

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 3, 2024, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.12%, up from 6.08% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.25%, up from 5.16% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Federal Reserve declares that inflation is under control and makes its first rate cut in four years – The Fed dropped its key interest rates by a ½% in September. With inflation spiking in 2022, the Fed enacted one of its most aggressive rate hike campaigns in history. They increased rates steadily until they hit a 25-year high. Now that inflation has worked its way down the Fed has begun a campaign of dropping rates to a more “neutral rate” from their previous “restrictive rate.” Experts expect two more rate drops before the end of the year, likely .25% each. The inflation reports for August were as follows: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measured 2.5% in August. It peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has worked its way down slowly over the past twenty-eight months. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale rose just 1.7% from last August. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for August, a key gauge of inflation that the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy showed that the 12-month inflation rate was 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and its lowest reading since February 2021. On Friday we will get the September Jobs report. That report will have an impact on bond yields and mortgage rates, which did not drop after the Fed announced its rate drop. That drop was expected and was already “built into” long-term bond yields and mortgage rates. The government released its third revision of the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of the strength of the economy. It showed that the economy grew at a 3% annualized pace in the second quarter, a faster rate than Wall Street had expected. The Fed is pointing to a “soft landing” where they expect the economy to remain healthy while inflation continues to moderate. Many experts felt that the dramatic rise in rates would put the country into a recession but so far that has not happened. With the Fed now lowering rates the hope is that a recession will be avoided.

The graph below shows the movement of the Consumer Price Index from 2021 to the present.

Stock Markets – The Dow and S&P 500 closed September at record highs, and the NASDAQ closed just 2.5% off its record set in July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month at 42,330.15, up 1.8% from 41,563.08, on August 31, 2024. It is up 12.3% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the month at 5,762.58, up 2% from 5,648.40 last month. It is up 20.8% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the month at 18,189.17, up 2.7% from 17,713.63 last month. It is up 21.2% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the month yielding 3.81%, down from 3.91% last month. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the month at 4.14%, down from 4.20% last month. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 26th, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.08%, down from 6.35% at the end of August. The 15-year fixed was 5.16%, down from 5.51% last month.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Home sales data was released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. These are August’s home sales figures.

U.S. existing-home sales August 2024 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 3.86 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in August, down 4.2% from an annualized rate of 4.03 million last August. The median price for a home in the U.S. in August was $416,700, up 3.1% from $404,200 one year ago. There was a 4.2-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from a 3.3-month supply one year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 26% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 19% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 26% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 1% of all sales.

August California existing-home sales report – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 262,050 on an annualized rate in August, up 2.8% from a revised 254,820 homes sold on an annualized basis last August. The statewide median price paid for a home in July was $888,740, up 3.4% from $859,670. one year ago. There was a 3.2-month supply of homes for sale, up from a 2.4-month supply in August 2023.

The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California.