Economic Update | Week Ending November 14, 2026

Economic Update for the Week – Stocks rebounded this week despite a sharp increase in Treasury bond yields, which typically puts downward pressure on stock prices and pushes mortgage rates higher. Investors appeared to focus on continued economic growth and strong corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector, despite concerns about persistent inflation. Bond investors, however, reacted to higher inflation readings and growing uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates. Higher inflation expectations generally cause investors to demand higher yields on Treasury bonds. The result was an unusual week in which stock prices rose sharply while bond yields also increased, reflecting optimism about corporate profits but continued concern about inflation and interest rates.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of November 12, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.11%, down from 7.18% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.45%, down from 6.57% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Inflation – Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer reported that prices rose 0.4% in October, following a 0.6% increase in September. The increase was higher than economists had expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%. Food prices increased 0.5%, energy prices rose 0.7%, and shelter costs increased 0.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to report a year-over-year inflation rate for October because the federal government shutdown in October 2025 prevented the collection of most consumer price data that month. Without October 2025 figures, there is no comparable data to calculate the annual inflation rate for October 2026. Producer Price Index (PPI) – Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in October, following a revised 1.4% increase in September. The annual PPI inflation rate increased to 6.5%, its highest level since November 2022. Core producer prices, excluding food, energy, and trade services , increased 0.5% for the month and 4.9% year-over-year. Although the monthly increase was less than economists expected, the elevated annual rate indicates that inflationary pressures remain significant. These figures raise concerns that businesses will pass higher costs on to consumers, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.15% up from 4.86% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.47%, up from 5.26% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,347.55 up 2.1% from 51,285.73 last week. It is up 8.9% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,561.67, up 2.5% from 7,376.86 last week. The S&P is up 10.5% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 25,136.27, up 2.3% from 25,579.92 last week. It is up 8.2% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Home sales – The National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors tabulate home sales data in the second and third week of the month for the previous month. The National Association of Realtors has released its October report, and the California Association of Realtors will release its October existing-sales report next week.

U.S. October Existing-Home Sales – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales fell 5.5% in October from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million homes, down 8.8% from October 2025. Sales fell to their lowest level since August 2010. The median existing-home price was $416,700, up 0.4% from one year ago. Inventory increased to 1.59 million homes, representing a 5.1-month supply, up from 4.4 months one year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of sales, down from 32% a year ago. All-cash buyers accounted for 29% of transactions, unchanged from one year ago. Individual investors and second-home buyers combined accounted for 20% of sales, up from 16% a year ago. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, represented just 2% of transactions, unchanged from last year.

Have a great weekend!

November 12, 2026November 12, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | November 12, 2026

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

November 5, 2026November 5, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | November 5, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of November 5, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18%, down from 7.24% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.57%, down slightly from 6.6% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 29, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 29, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24%, down from 7.32% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.6%, down slightly from 6.68% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

October 23, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending October 23, 2026

The U.S. economy continued to show resilience this week despite persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next move. Business activity remained strong in October, with manufacturing and services continuing to expand, while unemployment claims remained low, indicating that employers are generally retaining workers. Consumer spending continued to support economic growth, although consumer confidence remained weak as households struggled with higher prices. Inflation continued to be a concern, particularly as rising energy and production costs put additional pressure on businesses and consumers. Treasury bond yields remained volatile but declined from their recent highs, providing some relief to mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve will meet next week, and investors will be watching closely for indications of its future interest rate policy. While the economy has performed better than many economists expected, persistent inflation and high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the housing market and could slow economic growth in the months ahead. While the economy has performed better than many economists expected, persistent inflation and high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the housing market. However, buyer demand remains, and even a modest decline in mortgage rates could bring more buyers into the market and help stimulate sales activity in the months ahead.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 22, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32%, down from 7.4% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.68%, down slightly from 6.71% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week , yielding 5% ,down from 5.09% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.33%, down from 5.43% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,215.16, up 0.4% from 52,002.41 last week. It is up 8.6% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,623.68, down 0.5% from7,659.44 last week. The S&P is up 11.4% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 25,955.34, down 0.7% from 26,140.03 last week. It is up 11.7% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Existing home sales are released by the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. Below are summaries of their September existing-home sales reports.

September U.S. Existing-Home Sales increase despite higher rates – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops , increased 1.5% month-over-month in September, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million homes. Year-over-year, sales were down 2.2% compared to September 2025. The median price paid for an existing home was $417,500, down 2.7% from $429,100 in August, but up 1.3% from $412,300 one year ago, marking the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Housing inventory increased to 1.60 million homes for sale at the end of September, up 1.9% from August and up 4.6% from one year ago. At the current sales pace, unsold inventory represented a 4.8-month supply, unchanged from August but up from 4.5 months in September 2025. First-time buyersaccounted for 31% of all existing-home sales in September, up from 30% in August and one year ago. All-cash transactions represented 27% of sales, unchanged from August but down from 30% last September. Individual investors and second-homebuyers accounted for 20% of purchases, a significant increase from 15% in both August and September 2025. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, remained historically low at just 2% of all transactions, unchanged from both the previous month and one year ago.

California Existing-Home Sales – September 2026 – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single-family home sales totaled 260,410 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down 3.4% from 269,620 in August and down 6.5% from 278,540 in September 2025. The statewide median home price was $899,720, down 0.2% from $901,420 in August but up 1.7% from $884,390 one year ago. The Unsold Inventory Index stood at 3.7 months, unchanged from August but up slightly from 3.6 months in September 2025.

Have a great weekend!

October 22, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 22, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 22, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32%, down from 7.4% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.68%, down slightly from 6.71% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

October 16, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending October 17, 2026

Economic Outlook – Despite higher-than-expected inflation, Treasury bond yields fell sharply this week as investors shifted their focus from inflation concerns to growing uncertainty about the economy and the stock market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had climbed above 5.3% last week, dropped to approximately 5.1%, its largest weekly decline since February. Much of the decline was driven by a selloff in technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks, as investors questioned whether the enormous investments being made in AI infrastructure would generate sufficient returns, particularly with borrowing costs remaining elevated. Investors moved money out of stocks and into the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing bond prices higher and yields lower. Comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting that additional interest rate increases may not be necessary immediately also helped bring yields down. For the housing market, declining Treasury yields are encouraging because mortgage rates generally follow the direction of the 10-year Treasury. If yields continue to decline, lower mortgage rates could help improve affordability, bring more buyers into the market, and strengthen home sales in the months ahead.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 15, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4%, unchanged from 7.4% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.71%, nearly unchanged from 6.73% last week. Rates dropped on Thursday and Friday. If the rates at the end of the week hold, the 30-year should be closer to 7.25% on next Thursday’s report.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Inflation Rises in September as Energy Prices Surge – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6%month-over-month in September, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.7% in September. That is up from an annual inflation rate of 3.4% in August. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month. It was up 2.6% year over year, up from a 2.4% year-over-year increase in August. Analysts commented that much of the increase was driven by higher energy costs, particularly gasoline prices, which jumped 9.1% in September. The report highlights renewed inflationary pressures that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and keep borrowing costs, including mortgage rates, elevated.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.09%, down sharply from 5.24% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.43% , down sharply from 5.60% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,002.41, up 0.7% from 51,654.95 last week. It is up 8.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,659.44, down 1.9% from 7,811.54 last week. The S&P is up 11.9% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,140.03 , down 4.5% from 27,366.17 last week. It is up 12.5% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Existing home sales are released by the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. The National Association of Realtors has released its report. The California Association of Realtors has not. We will include that report in next week’s update.

September U.S. Existing-Home Sales increase despite higher rates – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops , increased 1.5% month-over-month in September, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million homes. Year-over-year, sales were down 2.2% compared to September 2025. The median price paid for an existing home was $417,500, down 2.7% from $429,100 in August, but up 1.3% from $412,300 one year ago, marking the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Housing inventory increased to 1.60 million homes for sale at the end of September, up 1.9% from August and up 4.6% from one year ago. At the current sales pace, unsold inventory represented a 4.8-month supply, unchanged from August but up from 4.5 months in September 2025. First-time buyers accounted for 31% of all existing-home sales in September, up from 30% in August and one year ago. All-cash transactions represented 27% of sales, unchanged from August but down from 30% last September. Individual investors and second-home buyers accounted for 20% of purchases, a significant increase from 15% in both August and September 2025. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, remained historically low at just 2% of all transactions, unchanged from both the previous month and one year ago.

Have a great weekend!

October 15, 2026October 15, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 15, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 15, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4%, unchanged from 7.4% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.71%, nearly unchanged from 6.73% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

October 12, 2026October 12, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending October 10, 2026

The economy continues to send mixed signals as investors, businesses, and consumers look for clearer indications of where inflation and interest rates are headed. Recent employment data has suggested that the labor market is cooling, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may have room to lower interest rates further. However, inflation remains a concern, particularly with elevated energy costs and continued uncertainty surrounding global economic conditions. Next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be closely watched, as it will provide an important update on inflation and could influence the direction of mortgage rates, Treasury yields, and future Federal Reserve policy. For the housing market, lower borrowing costs would be a welcome development, particularly as home prices in many Southern California communities have remained remarkably resilient despite higher mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 8, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4%, upfrom 7.28% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.73%, up from 6.6% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.24%, down slightly from 5.28% last week. The 30-year Treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.60% down slightly from 5.63% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,654.95, up 0.1% from 51,176.96 last week. It is up 7.47% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,811.54, up 1.2% from 7,722.72 last week. The S&P is up 14.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 27,366.17, up 0.6% from 27,190.86 last week. It is up 17.74% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Home sales – Next week the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors will release their September home sales reports. We use the same data and you can get a report now for your city or zip code on our website at RodeoRealty.com.

Have a great weekend!

October 8, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 8, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 8, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4%, up from 7.28% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.73%, up from 6.6% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.