Economic Update | Week Ending October 23, 2026

The U.S. economy continued to show resilience this week despite persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next move. Business activity remained strong in October, with manufacturing and services continuing to expand, while unemployment claims remained low, indicating that employers are generally retaining workers. Consumer spending continued to support economic growth, although consumer confidence remained weak as households struggled with higher prices. Inflation continued to be a concern, particularly as rising energy and production costs put additional pressure on businesses and consumers. Treasury bond yields remained volatile but declined from their recent highs, providing some relief to mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve will meet next week, and investors will be watching closely for indications of its future interest rate policy. While the economy has performed better than many economists expected, persistent inflation and high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the housing market and could slow economic growth in the months ahead. While the economy has performed better than many economists expected, persistent inflation and high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the housing market. However, buyer demand remains, and even a modest decline in mortgage rates could bring more buyers into the market and help stimulate sales activity in the months ahead.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 22, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32%, down from 7.4% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.68%, down slightly from 6.71% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week , yielding 5% ,down from 5.09% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.33%, down from 5.43% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,215.16, up 0.4% from 52,002.41 last week. It is up 8.6% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,623.68, down 0.5% from7,659.44 last week. The S&P is up 11.4% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 25,955.34, down 0.7% from 26,140.03 last week. It is up 11.7% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Existing home sales are released by the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. Below are summaries of their September existing-home sales reports.

September U.S. Existing-Home Sales increase despite higher rates – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops , increased 1.5% month-over-month in September, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million homes. Year-over-year, sales were down 2.2% compared to September 2025. The median price paid for an existing home was $417,500, down 2.7% from $429,100 in August, but up 1.3% from $412,300 one year ago, marking the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Housing inventory increased to 1.60 million homes for sale at the end of September, up 1.9% from August and up 4.6% from one year ago. At the current sales pace, unsold inventory represented a 4.8-month supply, unchanged from August but up from 4.5 months in September 2025. First-time buyersaccounted for 31% of all existing-home sales in September, up from 30% in August and one year ago. All-cash transactions represented 27% of sales, unchanged from August but down from 30% last September. Individual investors and second-homebuyers accounted for 20% of purchases, a significant increase from 15% in both August and September 2025. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, remained historically low at just 2% of all transactions, unchanged from both the previous month and one year ago.

California Existing-Home Sales – September 2026 – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single-family home sales totaled 260,410 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down 3.4% from 269,620 in August and down 6.5% from 278,540 in September 2025. The statewide median home price was $899,720, down 0.2% from $901,420 in August but up 1.7% from $884,390 one year ago. The Unsold Inventory Index stood at 3.7 months, unchanged from August but up slightly from 3.6 months in September 2025.

Have a great weekend!

October 22, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 22, 2026

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

October 16, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending October 17, 2026

Economic Outlook – Despite higher-than-expected inflation, Treasury bond yields fell sharply this week as investors shifted their focus from inflation concerns to growing uncertainty about the economy and the stock market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had climbed above 5.3% last week, dropped to approximately 5.1%, its largest weekly decline since February. Much of the decline was driven by a selloff in technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks, as investors questioned whether the enormous investments being made in AI infrastructure would generate sufficient returns, particularly with borrowing costs remaining elevated. Investors moved money out of stocks and into the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing bond prices higher and yields lower. Comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting that additional interest rate increases may not be necessary immediately also helped bring yields down. For the housing market, declining Treasury yields are encouraging because mortgage rates generally follow the direction of the 10-year Treasury. If yields continue to decline, lower mortgage rates could help improve affordability, bring more buyers into the market, and strengthen home sales in the months ahead.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 15, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4%, unchanged from 7.4% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.71%, nearly unchanged from 6.73% last week. Rates dropped on Thursday and Friday. If the rates at the end of the week hold, the 30-year should be closer to 7.25% on next Thursday’s report.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Inflation Rises in September as Energy Prices Surge – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6%month-over-month in September, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.7% in September. That is up from an annual inflation rate of 3.4% in August. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month. It was up 2.6% year over year, up from a 2.4% year-over-year increase in August. Analysts commented that much of the increase was driven by higher energy costs, particularly gasoline prices, which jumped 9.1% in September. The report highlights renewed inflationary pressures that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and keep borrowing costs, including mortgage rates, elevated.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.09%, down sharply from 5.24% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.43% , down sharply from 5.60% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,002.41, up 0.7% from 51,654.95 last week. It is up 8.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,659.44, down 1.9% from 7,811.54 last week. The S&P is up 11.9% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,140.03 , down 4.5% from 27,366.17 last week. It is up 12.5% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Existing home sales are released by the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. The National Association of Realtors has released its report. The California Association of Realtors has not. We will include that report in next week’s update.

September U.S. Existing-Home Sales increase despite higher rates – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops , increased 1.5% month-over-month in September, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million homes. Year-over-year, sales were down 2.2% compared to September 2025. The median price paid for an existing home was $417,500, down 2.7% from $429,100 in August, but up 1.3% from $412,300 one year ago, marking the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Housing inventory increased to 1.60 million homes for sale at the end of September, up 1.9% from August and up 4.6% from one year ago. At the current sales pace, unsold inventory represented a 4.8-month supply, unchanged from August but up from 4.5 months in September 2025. First-time buyers accounted for 31% of all existing-home sales in September, up from 30% in August and one year ago. All-cash transactions represented 27% of sales, unchanged from August but down from 30% last September. Individual investors and second-home buyers accounted for 20% of purchases, a significant increase from 15% in both August and September 2025. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, remained historically low at just 2% of all transactions, unchanged from both the previous month and one year ago.

Have a great weekend!

October 15, 2026October 15, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 15, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 15, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4%, unchanged from 7.4% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.71%, nearly unchanged from 6.73% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

October 12, 2026October 12, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending October 10, 2026

The economy continues to send mixed signals as investors, businesses, and consumers look for clearer indications of where inflation and interest rates are headed. Recent employment data has suggested that the labor market is cooling, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may have room to lower interest rates further. However, inflation remains a concern, particularly with elevated energy costs and continued uncertainty surrounding global economic conditions. Next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be closely watched, as it will provide an important update on inflation and could influence the direction of mortgage rates, Treasury yields, and future Federal Reserve policy. For the housing market, lower borrowing costs would be a welcome development, particularly as home prices in many Southern California communities have remained remarkably resilient despite higher mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 8, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4%, upfrom 7.28% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.73%, up from 6.6% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.24%, down slightly from 5.28% last week. The 30-year Treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.60% down slightly from 5.63% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,654.95, up 0.1% from 51,176.96 last week. It is up 7.47% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,811.54, up 1.2% from 7,722.72 last week. The S&P is up 14.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 27,366.17, up 0.6% from 27,190.86 last week. It is up 17.74% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Home sales – Next week the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors will release their September home sales reports. We use the same data and you can get a report now for your city or zip code on our website at RodeoRealty.com.

Have a great weekend!

October 8, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 8, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 8, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.4%, up from 7.28% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.73%, up from 6.6% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

October 6, 2026

Economic Update | Month Ending September 30, 2026

September ended with an economy that continues to show resilience, but inflation and borrowing costs remain challenges. The conflict involving Iran and uncertainty surrounding oil supplies pushed energy prices higher during the month, adding pressure to inflation. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by one-quarter point in September, citing elevated inflation despite solid economic growth. Consumer spending increased in the latest report, while annual inflation measured by the Fed’s preferred index stood at 3.4%. These conditions suggest that buyers and sellers should plan around current financing costs rather than assume that lower rates are just around the corner.

For real estate, affordability remains a central issue, with Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching 7.28% on October 1. Our local Southern California real estate market has remained very resilient despite higher mortgage rates, with single-family home prices holding remarkably steady. The condominium market, however, has been more challenging, and prices have not shown the same stability. Higher insurance costs, increased reserve funding needs, and required balcony inspections and repairs have contributed to rising HOA fees and, in some buildings, special assessments. These additional ownership costs weigh on buyers’ purchasing power and make condominium sales more difficult. Our view is that this environment makes realistic pricing, strong marketing, and careful negotiation especially important. Southern California is a collection of distinct local markets, and neighborhood sales and competing inventory provide a more useful guide than national headlines alone. As we enter the final quarter, buyers and sellers should focus on their individual needs and the opportunities available today.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 1, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28%, up from 6.66% at the end of August. The 15-year fixed was 6.6%, up from 5.98% last month.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Stock markets – Investor confidence in AI-related companies continued in September, even as concerns about the technology’s risks received greater public attention. Expectations of an AI revolution sustained interest in chipmakers, data center developers, and companies providing the technology and infrastructure behind AI. That enthusiasm helped keep the broader stock market largely resilient despite higher borrowing costs and economic uncertainty that weighed on some traditional businesses. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month at 50,906.05, down 4.3% from 53,185.90 last month. The Dow is up 5.9% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,651.54, down 0.5% from 7,686.14 last month. The S&P is up 11.8% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,861.06, up 1.9% from 26,370.89 at the end of August. The Nasdaq up 15.6% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields — Yields climbed in September as investors weighed persistent inflation and concerns about growing government debt and budget deficits. Higher yields added upward pressure to borrowing costs, including mortgage rates. The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield closed the month at 5.29%, up sharply from 4.75% on August 31, 2026. The 30-year US treasury bond yield ended the month at 5.64%, up sharply from 5.25% on August 31, 2026.

The California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors release their home sales report for the previous month around the third week of the month for the previous month. Below is a summary of their August numbers. You can also get more local figures from the same data for your zip code or city at RodeoRe.com.

U.S. existing-home sales – August 2026 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 3.98 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in August, down 2.0% from 4.06 million units in July and down 1.2% from one year ago. The median price paid for an existing home in the U.S. was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from $422,400 one year ago. There was a 4.9-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from a 4.6-month supply in July and August 2025. First-time home buyers accounted for 30% of all homes sold, 27% of transactions were cash sales, 15% were individual investors or second-home buyers, and 2% of sales were distressed sales, which include foreclosures and short sales.

August California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 269,620 on an adjusted annualized basis in August, up 2.4% from 263,320 in July and up 1.4% from 265,780 annualized sales in August 2025. The statewide median price paid for a home was $901,420 in August, up 1.6% from $887,210 in July and up 0.1% from $900,620 last August. Housing inventory loosened in August but remained tighter than one year ago. The Unsold Inventory Index showed that there was a 3.7-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from 3.4 months in July, but down from a 3.9-month supply in August 2025.

The graph below shows home sales figures for Southern California.

October 2, 2026October 2, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending October 3rd, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 1, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28%, up sharply from 7.03% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.6%, up from 6.42% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Employers added fewer jobs than expected in September – The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September jobs report on Friday. It showed that the U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 economists surveyed expected. Hiring also slowed sharply from August’s revised gain of 133,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% the previous month. The disappointing figures suggest employers remain cautious about expanding their workforces and could give the Federal Reserve reason to pause further interest rate increases. However, part of the rise in unemployment reflected more people entering the workforce, rather than a broad increase in layoffs.

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in below expectations -This week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report offered some encouraging news, with prices rising 0.3% in August, below economists’ expectations of 0.4%. Annual inflation stood at 3.4%, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 3.0%. Consumer spending also rose a strong 0.9%, suggesting the economy continued to hold up despite higher borrowing costs. The milder inflation reading could give the Federal Reserve room to hold interest rates steady, although inflation remains above its 2% target.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.28%, up sharply from 5.17% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.63% up sharply from 5.49% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,176.96, up 0.1% from 51,828.62 last week. It is up 7.8% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,722.72, up 1.2% from 7,743.41 last week. The S&P is up 13.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 27,190.86, up 1.9% from 27,068.72 last week. It is up 16.5% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

October 2, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 1, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 1, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28%, up sharply from 7.03% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.6%, up from 6.42% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

September 26, 2026September 26, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending September 26, 2026

Bond yields surged this week, pushing mortgage rates sharply higher as investors reacted to mounting evidence that the economy remains stronger than expected and inflation pressures may be difficult to contain. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, while mortgage rates moved back above 7%. Economic reports reinforced the view that the economy remains surprisingly resilient. U.S. business activity expanded in September at its fastest pace in more than five years, weekly unemployment claims fell to just 197,000, and August retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 1.2% from July and 6.0% from one year ago. The housing market also showed some resilience, with new-home sales increasing 6.4% in August, although the median price of a new home was 5.8% lower than one year ago.

Despite the sharp increase in bond yields and borrowing costs, stocks moved higher this week. Investors appear to be viewing much of the rise in interest rates as a reflection of stronger economic growth rather than simply higher inflation. A stronger economy supports corporate revenues and earnings, while continued investment and enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence have provided additional support for technology stocks. The downside is that stronger economic data and persistent inflation concerns reduce expectations for lower interest rates and could keep mortgage rates elevated, creating an ongoing headwind for the housing market. There was no major CPI or PCE inflation report released this week, making next Wednesday’s PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, particularly important for determining the direction of interest rates in the weeks ahead.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 24, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.03%, up from 6.95% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.42%, up from 6.26% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.17%, up sharply from 5.01% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.49%, up sharply from 5.34% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,828.62, up 0.1% from 51,782.64 last week. It is up 7.8% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,743.41, up 1.2% from 7,650.50 last week. The S&P is up 13.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 27,068.72, up 1.9% from 26,552.55 last week. It is up 16.5% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.