Economic Update | Week Ending October 3rd, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 1, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28%, up sharply from 7.03% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.6%, up from 6.42% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Employers added fewer jobs than expected in September – The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September jobs report on Friday. It showed that the U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 economists surveyed expected. Hiring also slowed sharply from August’s revised gain of 133,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% the previous month. The disappointing figures suggest employers remain cautious about expanding their workforces and could give the Federal Reserve reason to pause further interest rate increases. However, part of the rise in unemployment reflected more people entering the workforce, rather than a broad increase in layoffs.

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in below expectations -This week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report offered some encouraging news, with prices rising 0.3% in August, below economists’ expectations of 0.4%. Annual inflation stood at 3.4%, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 3.0%. Consumer spending also rose a strong 0.9%, suggesting the economy continued to hold up despite higher borrowing costs. The milder inflation reading could give the Federal Reserve room to hold interest rates steady, although inflation remains above its 2% target.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.28%, up sharply from 5.17% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.63% up sharply from 5.49% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,176.96, up 0.1% from 51,828.62 last week. It is up 7.8% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,722.72, up 1.2% from 7,743.41 last week. The S&P is up 13.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 27,190.86, up 1.9% from 27,068.72 last week. It is up 16.5% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

October 2, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | October 1, 2026

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

September 26, 2026September 26, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending September 26, 2026

Bond yields surged this week, pushing mortgage rates sharply higher as investors reacted to mounting evidence that the economy remains stronger than expected and inflation pressures may be difficult to contain. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, while mortgage rates moved back above 7%. Economic reports reinforced the view that the economy remains surprisingly resilient. U.S. business activity expanded in September at its fastest pace in more than five years, weekly unemployment claims fell to just 197,000, and August retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 1.2% from July and 6.0% from one year ago. The housing market also showed some resilience, with new-home sales increasing 6.4% in August, although the median price of a new home was 5.8% lower than one year ago.

Despite the sharp increase in bond yields and borrowing costs, stocks moved higher this week. Investors appear to be viewing much of the rise in interest rates as a reflection of stronger economic growth rather than simply higher inflation. A stronger economy supports corporate revenues and earnings, while continued investment and enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence have provided additional support for technology stocks. The downside is that stronger economic data and persistent inflation concerns reduce expectations for lower interest rates and could keep mortgage rates elevated, creating an ongoing headwind for the housing market. There was no major CPI or PCE inflation report released this week, making next Wednesday’s PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, particularly important for determining the direction of interest rates in the weeks ahead.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 24, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.03%, up from 6.95% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.42%, up from 6.26% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.17%, up sharply from 5.01% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.49%, up sharply from 5.34% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,828.62, up 0.1% from 51,782.64 last week. It is up 7.8% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,743.41, up 1.2% from 7,650.50 last week. The S&P is up 13.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 27,068.72, up 1.9% from 26,552.55 last week. It is up 16.5% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Have a great weekend!

September 24, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | September 24, 2026

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.03%, up from 6.95% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.42%, up from 6.26% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

September 19, 2026September 19, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending September 19, 2026

Reports released this week showed that the economy continued to send mixed signals in August. Consumer spending remained surprisingly strong, with U.S. retail and food-service sales jumping 1.2% from July and 6.0% from one year ago, suggesting that consumers remain resilient despite higher prices and borrowing costs. Inflation, however, remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, prompting the Fed at its September meeting to raise the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The increase in rates continues to create a headwind for housing, where U.S. existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August to a 3.98-million annualized pace. At the same time, inventory increased to a 4.9-month supply, its highest level in more than 10 years, giving buyers more choices and negotiating power. Home prices, however, remained resilient, with the national median existing-home price rising 1.6% from a year ago to $429,100.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 17, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.95%, up from 6.76% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.26%, up from 6.09% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 5.01%, up from 4.95% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.34% down slightly from 5.37% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,782.64, down 1.5% from 52,576.29 last week. It is up 7.7% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,650.50, down 0.1% from 7,656.94 last week. The S&P is up 11.8% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,522.55, up 0.7% from 26,333.04 last week. It is up 14.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

The California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors release their home sales report for the previous month around the third week of the month for the previous month. They released the August numbers this week. You can also get more local figures from the same data for your zip code or city at RodeoRe.com.

U.S. existing-home sales – August 2026 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 3.98 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in August, down 2.0% from 4.06 million units in July and down 1.2% from one year ago. The median price paid for an existing home in the U.S. was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from $422,400 one year ago. There was a 4.9-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from a 4.6-month supply in July and August 2025. First-time home buyers accounted for 30% of all homes sold, 27% of transactions were cash sales, 15% were individual investors or second-home buyers, and 2% of sales were distressed sales, which include foreclosures and short sales.

August California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 269,620 on an adjusted annualized basis in August, up 2.4% from 263,320 in July and up 1.4% from 265,780 annualized sales in August 2025. The statewide median price paid for a home was $901,420 in August, up 1.6% from $887,210 in July and up 0.1% from $900,620 last August. Housing inventory loosened in August but remained tighter than one year ago. The Unsold Inventory Index showed that there was a 3.7-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from 3.4 months in July, but down from a 3.9-month supply in August 2025.

The graph below shows sales data for Southern California. This is from the California Association of Realtors report.

Have a great weekend!

September 17, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | September 17, 2026

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.95%, up from 6.76% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.26%, up from 6.09% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

September 11, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending September 12, 2026

Long-term Treasury yields surged this week, with the 10-year reaching its highest level in nearly three years and the 30-year hitting its highest level since 2007. The rise in bond yields pushed mortgage rates higher, creating another challenge for homebuyers and affordability. Despite the recent increase in rates, the economy continues to show resilience, employment remains solid, and underlying inflation has shown signs of gradually improving. Housing demand has also remained surprisingly resilient given the current interest-rate environment. The Core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, was 1% below the overall inflation rate, showing that much of the uptick in inflation since the Iran conflict began is due to high energy costs. Should energy costs moderate in the months ahead, Treasury and mortgage rates could begin to ease, which would improve affordability and provide a meaningful boost to housing activity.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August – The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August CPI report on Friday. It showed that the CPI rose 0.4% in August, following a 0.1% increase in July. Consumer prices were 3.4% higher than one year ago, unchanged from July’s annual rate. Much of the monthly increase was driven by energy costs, with gasoline prices jumping 3.9%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month but improved slightly on a year-over-year basis, falling to 2.4% from 2.5% in July. While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target, the continued moderation in core inflation is encouraging. The higher headline number, largely influenced by energy prices, could make the Federal Reserve more cautious as it considers the direction of interest rates in the months ahead.

The graph below shows the trajectory of the CPI rate over time.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 10, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.76%, up from 6.71% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.09%, up from 6.04% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.95%, up from 4.78% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.37%, up from 5.24% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,573.29, down 1.6% from 53,414.25 last week. It is up 9.4% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,656.95, down 0.8% from 7,718.60 last week. The S&P is up 11.8% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,333.04, down 0.7% from 26,506.99 last week. It is up 13.3% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Have a great weekend!

September 10, 2026September 10, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | September 10, 2026

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.76%, up from 6.71% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.09%, up from 6.04% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

September 4, 2026

Economic Update | Month Ending September 5, 2026

Economic data released this week continued to show that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher costs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The service sector, which represents the largest part of the economy, strengthened considerably in August, with business activity and new orders posting some of their strongest readings in several years. Manufacturing also remained in expansion territory for the eighth consecutive month. Consumer and business demand remain solid, although higher energy prices and other input costs continue to create inflation concerns. Stocks were volatile during the holiday-shortened week and finished lower Friday as investors weighed stronger economic data against the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Overall, the economy continues to perform better than many had expected, with solid economic activity providing a favorable backdrop as we head into the fall, although inflation remains the biggest uncertainty.

The jobs market showed a significant improvement in August – The August jobs report provided some encouraging news about the strength of the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs, the strongest monthly gain in five months and far above economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at a relatively low 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 3.1% from one year ago, slightly higher than the 3.0% annual increase recorded the previous month. There was also some good news in revisions to earlier reports: June and July employment gains were revised upward by a combined 55,000 jobs, with July revised from a previously reported loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000. The labor force also grew by 683,000 people in August, while the number of people working part-time because they could not find full-time work declined by 414,000. Overall, the report suggests that the labor market, which had appeared to be slowing considerably, remains more resilient than previously thought. The stronger employment numbers are positive for the overall economy, although they could make the Federal Reserve more cautious about lowering interest rates as it continues to monitor inflation.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 3, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.71%, up from 6.66% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.04%, up from 5.98% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. Treasury Bonds- The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.78%, up from 4.73% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.24%, up slightly from 5.22% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 53,414.25, down 0.3% from 53,559.99 last week. It is up 11.1% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,718.60, up 1.4% from 7,611.76 last week. The S&P is up 12.8% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,506.99, up 0.4% from 26,402.42 last week. It is up 13% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

September 3, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | September 3, 2026

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.71%, up from 6.66% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.04%, up from 5.98% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.