Economic Update | Month Ending May 31, 2026

Geopolitical tensions and the growing conflict in the Middle East pushed oil and gas prices higher in May, which also contributed to an increase in Treasury bond yields and mortgage rates as investors worried about inflationary pressures and the potential impact on the global economy. The 10-year Treasury yield moved higher, and mortgage rates followed, creating additional affordability challenges for homebuyers and putting some pressure on the housing market.

Despite higher rates and global uncertainty, the stock market rebounded as investors focused on resilient corporate earnings, continued consumer spending, and hopes that inflation may remain contained enough for the Federal Reserve to eventually ease monetary policy later this year. Technology and AI-related stocks continued to lead much of the market’s recovery, helping offset concerns about higher energy prices and slowing economic growth.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 28, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.53%, up from 6.30% last month. The 15-year fixed was 5.87%, up from 5.64% last month. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

May inflation release shows that the Consumer Price Index jumped to a 3-year high inflation rate in April – The Consumer Price Index was released this week. It showed that consumer prices for all goods increased 3.8% year-over-year, the highest annual inflation rate in three years. Just a few months ago, in February 2026, before the war began, inflation had fallen to 2.4%, its lowest annual rate in three years. After the war started, the CPI rate jumped from 2.4% in January and February to 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April. Fortunately, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.8%. That indicates that, at least for now, much of the recent increase in inflation is being driven by higher gas and energy prices rather than broad-based inflation throughout the economy. Analysts remain hopeful that overall inflation could begin to moderate again once tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz are fully reopened to unrestricted oil shipments. One-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through that region. Any disruption can quickly impact energy prices worldwide and, in turn, inflation here in the United States.

Stock markets – Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month at 51,032.36, up 2.8% from 49,652.14 on last month. The Dow is up 6.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,589.06, up 5.3% from 7,209.01 last month. The S&P is up 10.9% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,792.62, up 7.6% from 24,892.31 at the end of April. The Nasdaq is up 16.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed the month at 4.45%, up from 4.32% on April 31, 2026. The 30-year US treasury bond yield ended the month at 4.99%, up from 4.91% on April 31, 2026. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Home sales figures are released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. Here is a summary of the April existing home sales reports.

U.S. existing-home sales – April 2026 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in April, up from 3.98 million in March, and unchanged from the number of homes sold last April. Year-over-year home sales were down 1% from the number of homes sold last March. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in March was $417,700, up 0.9% year-over-year from $414,000 last April.

California existing-home sales – The median price soared 7.1% in April as inventory tightened – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 275,580 on an adjusted annualized basis in April, up 4.1% from 264,810 annualized sales last April. The statewide median price paid for a home was $914,810 in April, up 7.1% from $889,190 in March. Year-over-year, April’s median price was up 0.4% from $911,400 one year ago. The increase in the median price was attributed to more homes selling in a higher price range than the lower range, as higher price range buyers have been less impacted by gas prices, inflation, etc. They also have more money in the stock markets, which are at or near record highs.

Below is the housing data for Southern California by County.

May 30, 2026May 30, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending May 30, 2026

Stocks moved higher this week while Treasury yields and mortgage rates edged slightly lower. Investors were encouraged by signs of easing geopolitical tensions and improving trade discussions, which helped boost confidence on Wall Street. At the same time, bond markets stabilized as investors anticipated that lower energy prices and moderating economic growth could help reduce future inflation pressures. As a result, mortgage rates declined modestly, although they remain elevated compared to earlier this year.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, was released this week and showed that inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The PCE Index rose 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.5% the previous month, while Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.3%. Because the Federal Reserve closely watches the PCE Index when making interest rate decisions, the report suggests the Fed may remain cautious about cutting interest rates too quickly despite signs that economic growth is beginning to moderate.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 28, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.53%, up slightly from 6.51% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.87%, up slightly from 5.85% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,032.36, up 0.9% from 50,579.70 last week. It is up 6.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,589.06, up 2% from 7,437.47 last week. The S&P is up 10.9% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,972.62, up 2.4% from 26,343.97 last week. It is up 16.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.45%, down from 4.56% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.99%, down from 5.07% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Have a great weekend!

May 28, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | May 28, 2026

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 28, 2026, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.53%, up slightly from 6.51% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.87%, up slightly from 5.85% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

May 26, 2026May 26, 2026

The Zip Code Premium: Why Families Will Pay Anything to Be in BHUSD Borders

For parents, the Beverly Hills Unified School District (BHUSD) is tied to one of the most sought-after zip codes in the country. Offering nationally ranked academics, specialized career pathways, and a diverse array of extracurricular activities, it is no surprise Southern California parents want their kids to have the premier BHUSD educactional experience.

However, securing a home within this prestigious school district requires navigating a complex and highly competitive real estate landscape. On the Westside of Los Angeles, a single street can mean the difference between a multi-million dollar property zoned for a top-tier municipal school system or one that falls into a completely different district. Understanding the geographical boundaries and financial implications of the “zip code premium” is essential for families looking to make a calculated investment in both their children’s future and their property’s equity.

Navigating the Map: BHUSD vs LAUSD Real Estate Boundaries

When searching for homes for sale in Beverly Hills Unified School District, many buyers fall into the “BHPO Trap”.

Beverly Hills Post Office (BHPO) refers to the hillsides located directly north of the city limits. Properties in this enclave enjoy the prestigious “Beverly Hills, CA 90210” mailing address, but they sit outside the actual municipal boundaries of the City of Beverly Hills. Because school district boundaries follow municipal borders rather than postal zip codes, homes in BHPO are zoned for the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) rather than BHUSD.

To illustrate just how stark this boundary line is, consider the map below:

This boundary line creates a massive real estate discrepancy. Two identical luxury estates can sit just doors apart on the same street, yet the home located inside the official city line will command a significantly higher premium solely due to its guaranteed access to Beverly Hills schools.

The Financial ROI of Dedicated Municipal Infrastructure

The value premium associated with BHUSD is driven by an independent, hyper-localized funding model. Unlike larger, stretched school districts that rely heavily on fluctuating state education budgets, BHUSD benefits directly from Beverly Hills’ independent municipal tax base and the robust support of the Beverly Hills Education Foundation (BHEF).

This consistent financial backing allows the district to maintain state-of-the-art facilities, keep class sizes small, and attract top-tier educators. For luxury real estate buyers, paying the property premium to live within BHUSD borders often represents a highly analytical financial play rather than just an emotional lifestyle choice.

Southern California Residents will use money that would have otherwise gone to private school tuitions toward a home in the BHUSD. And this makes sense considering private school tuition can cost upwards of 30K – 50K per year, per child. So this is something for parents to take into calculation.

Giving Kids an Educational Advantage

Some educational experts extoll the value of schooling as the ultimate decider of a child’s success – or, at least, as a very heavy indicator. Others point more to the family environment. However, we’d all agree that schooling has at least SOME impact on the lives of our kids. And so parents do what they can. Some pay steep private school tuitions, while others compete for a seat at the best public schools. The question, though, is whether or not it’s really worth it? What’s the real difference between an “elite” vs “average” school district?

From Kindergarten to College Prep: Inside the BHUSD Ecosystem

The educational framework of Beverly Hills is meticulously structured to guide students seamlessly from early childhood through high school graduation. The district’s unique neighborhood-centric model includes highly acclaimed K-8 schools – such as Beverly Vista, Horace Mann, and Hawthorne – before students graduate into the historic Beverly Hills High School.

BHUSD is widely recognized for offering programs that rival elite private institutions, including:

Advanced Robotics & STEM Labs: Dedicated spaces equipped for early engineering and competitive robotics.
Proprietary TV Studios (KBEV): The longest-running student-run television station in the country, offering unmatched career technical education in media and broadcasting.
Elite Athletic Infrastructure: State-of-the-art sports facilities, swimming centers, and training grounds funded through dedicated municipal bonds.
Culinary Arts & Specialized Pathways: Professional-grade vocational pathways designed for early career exposure.

Living within the city limits ensures that children can walk or take short commutes to these neighborhood hubs, fostering a tightly-knit, secure community environment that defines the Beverly Hills lifestyle.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the difference between Beverly Hills city limits and BHPO (Beverly Hills Post Office) school districts?

A: Homes located within the official Beverly Hills city limits are legally zoned for the Beverly Hills Unified School District (BHUSD). Homes in the BHPO area carry a Beverly Hills mailing address but fall geographically under the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) jurisdiction.

Q: Can residents of BHPO send their children to BHUSD schools?

A: Generally, no. BHUSD admission requires verified proof of primary residency within the official municipal boundaries of the City of Beverly Hills. While inter-district permit applications exist, they are subjected to highly specific municipal criteria and are rarely granted for general enrollment.

Q: How does being inside the BHUSD boundary affect property resale value?

A: Properties located within the official school district lines consistently command a premium of 15% to 25% compared to similar properties located just across the border in neighboring districts. Furthermore, these homes historically show stronger equity preservation and price stability during real estate market shifts.

May 22, 2026May 22, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending May 23, 2026

Stocks moved higher this week despite continued volatility in interest rates and oil prices. Strong corporate earnings, particularly from technology and AI-related companies, helped boost investor confidence, while easing concerns over tensions in the Middle East also supported the markets. Unfortunately, inflation fears have caused Treasury yields to rise, which has increased mortgage rates. They are at their highest levels in nearly two years.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 21, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.51%, up from 6.36% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.85%, up from 5.71% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 50,579.70, up 2.1% from 49,526.17 last week. It is up 5.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,437.47, up 0.1% from 7,408.50 last week. The S&P is up 8.2% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,343.97, down 0.1% from 26,225.15 last week. It is up 12.8% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.56% down slightly from 4.59% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.07%, down slightly from 5.12% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

California existing-home sales – The median price soared 7.1% in April as inventory tightened – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 275,580 on an adjusted annualized basis in April, up 4.1% from 264,810 annualized sales last April. The statewide median price paid for a home was $914,810 in April, up 7.1% from $889,190 in March. Year-over-year, April’s median price was up 0.4% from $911,400 one year ago. The increase in the median price was attributed to more homes selling in the higher range than the lower range, as higher price range buyers have been less impacted by gas prices, inflation, etc. They also have more money in the stock markets, which are at or near record highs.

Below is the housing data for Southern California by County.

Have a great weekend!

May 21, 2026May 21, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | May 21, 2026

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.51%, up from 6.36% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.85%, up from 5.71% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

May 15, 2026May 16, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending May 16, 2026

The U.S. Treasury Bond market sold off this week, which in turn caused interest rates and mortgage rates to move higher. Investors became concerned that rising energy costs and the recent uptick in inflation could delay future Federal Reserve rate cuts. When inflation fears increase, bond prices typically fall, pushing bond yields and mortgage rates upward as lenders demand higher returns to offset the risk of inflation by reducing the future value of those fixed payments. It’s been up and down with bond yields and mortgage rates based on events in the Middle East.

Should tensions calm bond yields and mortgage rates could drop back to where they were in recent weeks. It’s unlikely that they will quickly drop back to their 3-year low just before the conflict started in the near term, but they will moderate.

Home sale data for April will be released next week by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. We tabulate the data from the same sources around the 8th of each month so you can get that data now from our website RodeoRe.com for your city or zip code.

Mortgage rates jumped at the end of the week – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week.

The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 14, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.36%, nearly unchanged from 6.37% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.71%, nearly unchanged from 5.72% last week. Unfortunately, rates jumped at the end of the week. The 30-year was closer to 6.65% on Friday.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

The Consumer Price Index jumped to a 3-year high inflation rate in April – The Consumer Price Index released this week. It showed that consumer prices for all goods increased 3.8% year-over-year, the highest annual inflation rate in three years. Just a few months ago, in February 2026 before the war began, inflation had fallen to 2.4%, its lowest annual rate in three years.

After the war started, the CPI rate jumped from 2.4% in January and February to 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April. Fortunately, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.8%. That indicates that, at least for now, much of the recent increase in inflation is being driven by higher gas and energy prices rather than broad-based inflation throughout the economy. Analysts remain hopeful that overall inflation could begin to moderate again once tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to unrestricted oil shipments. One fifth of the of the world’s oil supply passes through that region. Any disruption can quickly impact energy prices worldwide and, in turn, inflation here in the United States.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 49,526.17, down 0.2% from 49,609.16 last week. It is up 3% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,408.50, up 0.1% from 7,398.93 last week. The S&P is up 8.2% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,225.15, down 0.1% from 26,247.08 last week. It is up 12.8% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.59% up from 4.38% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.12%, up from 4.99% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Have a great weekend!

May 14, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | May 14, 2026

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.36%, nearly unchanged from 6.37% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.71%, nearly unchanged from 5.72% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

May 8, 2026May 8, 2026

Economic Update | Week Ending May 8, 2026

Stocks moved higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continuing their climb as investors reacted positively to stronger-than-expected economic data, solid corporate earnings, and ongoing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and technology spending. The April jobs report came in above expectations, reinforcing confidence that the labor market and overall economy remain more resilient than many analysts anticipated. Investors also appeared encouraged that tensions involving Iran, while still closely watched due to potential impacts on oil prices and inflation, have not yet significantly disrupted global markets

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 7, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.37%, up from 6.3% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.72%, up from 5.64% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 115,000 new jobs were created in April, far surpassing analysts’ expectations of 65,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, unchanged from March. Average hourly wages increased 3.6% from one year ago, a slight increase from 3.5% in March, which was the lowest year-over-year increase since 2021.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 49,609.16, up 0.8% from 49,499.27 last week. It is up 3.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,398.93, up 2.3% from 7,230.12 last week. The S&P is up 8.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,247.08, up 4.5% from 25,114.44 last week. It is up 12.9% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.38%, almost unchanged from 4.39% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.99%, almost unchanged from 4.97% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Have a great weekend!

May 7, 2026

Mortgage Rate Update | May 7, 2026

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.37%, up from 6.3% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.72%, up from 5.64% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.