Next week, all eyes will be on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which should provide a clearer picture of the direction of inflation. One of the key factors we’ll be watching is whether the recent decline in gasoline prices helped ease overall inflation during June. Lower energy costs can have a meaningful impact on the headline CPI, although core inflation, which excludes food and energy, will remain the Federal Reserve’s primary focus. A softer-than-expected inflation report could improve the outlook for interest rates and mortgage rates, while a higher reading may reinforce the Fed’s cautious approach. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of July 9, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.49%, up from 6.43% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.82%, up from 5.79% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. Stock markets – Stocks finished the week mixed but generally resilient, with the S&P 500 posting another weekly gain as investors looked ahead to next week’s June CPI report and the start of second-quarter earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,637.01, down 0.5% from 52,900.07 last week. It is up 9.5% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,575.39, up 1.2% from 7,483.24 last week. The S&P is up 10.7% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,281.61, up 1.7% from 25,832.67 last week. It is up 13.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025. U.S. Treasury Bonds – Treasury yields moved higher during the week as bond investors remained cautious about inflation and the Federal Reserve, keeping mortgage rates under upward pressure heading into next week’s CPI report. The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.56%, up from 4.49% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.06%, up from 4.98% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. I hope you are having a great weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of July 9, 2026, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.49%, up from 6.43% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.82%, up from 5.79% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

This week’s economic news showed a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing. Inflation remains sticky, with PCE up 4.1% year-over-year and core PCE at 3.4%, which helps explain why bond yields and mortgage rates have increased. The good news for real estate is that oil has dropped back to about $69-$72 a barrel, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased slightly to 6.43%.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of July 2, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.43%, down from 6.49% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.79%, down from 5.84% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Job creation slowed in June – The Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported that 57,000 new jobs were created in June, down from 172,000 new jobs in May. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%, in March, April, and May. The labor force participation rate (The percentage of people age 16 or older working or looking for work) dropped to 61.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021. Average hourly wages increased 3.5% from one year ago, which remains below the most recent inflation reading of 4.2%.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,900.07, up 2% from 51,876.11 last week. It is up 10.1% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,483.24, up 1.8% from 7,354.02 last week. The S&P is up 9.3% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 25,832.67, up 2.1% from 25,297.62 last week. It is up 11.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.49%, up from 4.38% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.98%, up from 4.87% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Wishing you a happy Independence Day as we celebrate our nation’s 250th birthday!

Have a great weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of July 2, 2026, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.43%, down from 6.49% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.79%, down from 5.84% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

June wrap-up – As we close out June, the economy continues to send mixed signals. Inflation remains the primary concern, with the latest CPI reading increasing to 4.2%, driven largely by higher energy prices during the Middle East conflict. While inflation has moved higher, much of the increase appears concentrated in energy rather than broad-based throughout the economy, leading many economists to believe inflation pressures could ease in the months ahead as oil prices continue to decline.

The biggest economic story of the month may be the potential end of the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting memorandum of understanding between the parties involved. During the height of the crisis, oil briefly surged to approximately $120 per barrel amid concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Today, oil prices have retreated to approximately $70 per barrel, removing a major inflationary pressure from the economy.

Despite the decline in oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions, bond yields and mortgage rates have been slower to respond than many had expected. The bond market remains cautious, waiting for additional evidence that inflation is moving sustainably lower before pricing in meaningful interest rate reductions. For the housing market, this means mortgage rates remain elevated even as some of the factors that pushed them higher begin to fade. The coming months will likely be defined by one question: Does lower energy inflation finally translate into lower bond yields and lower mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 28, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.49%, down slightly from 6.53% last month. The 15-year fixed was 5.84%, down slightly from 5.87% last month.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May – The Consumer Price Index released this week. It showed that consumer prices for all goods increased 4.2% year-over-year in May. That marked the highest annual inflation rate in three years. In February 2026, before the war began, inflation had fallen to 2.4%, its lowest annual rate in three years. After the war started, the CPI rate jumped form 2.4% in January and February to 3.3% in March, 3.8% in April and now 4.2% in May. Most of the increase was due to a 3.9% month-over-month increase in energy prices.

Stock markets – Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month at 52,319.20, up 2.5% from 51,032.36 on last month. The Dow is up 8.9% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,499.36, down 1.2% from 7,589.06 last month. The S&P is up 9.6% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,213.72, down 2.2% from 26,792.62 at the end of May. The Nasdaq is up 12.8% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed the month at 4.44%, almost unchanged from 4.45% on May 30, 2026. The 30-year US treasury bond yield ended the month at 4.91%, down slightly from 4.99% on May 30, 2026. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Home sales figures are released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. Here is a summary of the May existing home sales reports.

U.S. existing-home sales – April 2026 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing home sales totaled 4.17 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in May, up 3.2% from the number of homes sold last May. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in May was $429,300, up 1.3% year-over-year from $423,700 one year ago.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 268,810 on an adjusted annualized basis in May, down 3.1% from 277,360 in April. The statewide median price paid for a home was $930,260 in May, up 3.1% from $909,410 last May. The increase in the median price was attributed to more homes selling in the higher price range than the lower range, as higher price range buyers have been less impacted by gas prices, inflation, etc. They also have more money in the stock markets, which are at or near record highs.

Below is the housing data for Southern California by County.

This week’s biggest economic news was the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Headline PCE inflation rose to 4.1% year-over-year, while core PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, came in at 3.4%. The difference between headline and core inflation suggests that much of the recent inflation pressure continues to be driven by energy costs related to the Middle East conflict rather than broad-based price increases throughout the economy. The encouraging news is that energy prices have moved sharply lower over the past two weeks. During the height of the conflict and fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude briefly traded above $120 per barrel and peaked near $126. Today, Brent crude has fallen back to approximately $72 per barrel, its lowest level since before the conflict began. If these lower oil prices hold, gasoline and other energy costs should begin flowing through to future inflation reports and help reduce headline inflation readings in the months ahead. Despite the sharp drop in oil prices, Treasury yields have remained stubbornly elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield still hovering around 4.4%. As a result, mortgage rates have seen little improvement this week. Bond investors continue to focus on persistent inflation pressures, strong economic growth, and the possibility that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer despite easing energy prices. Other economic news this week was mixed. First quarter GDP growth was revised higher to 2.1%, weekly jobless claims remained relatively low, and consumer spending continued to show resilience. While these are positive signs for the broader economy, they also reinforce the bond market’s belief that the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to lower rates. The next major report for markets will be next week’s employment numbers, which could provide additional clues about the direction of inflation, Treasury yields, and mortgage rates during the second half of the year. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 25, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.49%, almost unchanged from 6.47% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.84%, almost unchangedfrom 5.81% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,876.11, up 0.6% from 51,564.70 last week. It is up 7.9% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,354.02, down 2% from 7,500.58 last week. The S&P is up 7.4% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 25,297.62, down 0.9% from 25,517.93 last week. It is up 8.8% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025. U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.38%from 4.46% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.87%, down slightly from 4.90% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Have a great weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 25, 2026, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.49%, up slightly from 6.47% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.84%, up slightly from 5.81% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Markets moved higher this week as tensions in the Middle East eased following a memorandum of understanding that is expected to end the recent conflict. Oil prices, which had surged on fears of supply disruptions, retreated sharply as concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz diminished. The decline in oil prices helped lift investor confidence and pushed stock markets higher as fears of a broader energy shock subsided.

Despite the positive news, interest rates provided little relief. The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged this week and signaled that inflation remains a concern. As a result, Treasury yields and mortgage rates changed very little, with 30-year mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range. Overall, the economy continues to show resilience with steady employment, moderating inflation, and solid consumer spending, but higher borrowing costs remain a challenge for homebuyers and businesses alike.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 18, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.47%, down from 6.52% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.81%, down slightly from 5.84% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. 

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,564.70, up 0.7% from 51,202.26 last week. It is up 7.3% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,500.58, up 0.9% from 7,431.36 last week. The S&P is up 9.6% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,517.93, up 2.4% from 25,888.84 last week. It is up 14.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.46%, almost unchanged from 4.47% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.90%, down from 4.97% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Home sales figures are released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. Here is a summary of the May existing home sales reports.

U.S. existing-home sales – April 2026 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.17 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in May, up 3.2% from the number of homes sold last May. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in May was $429,300, up 1.3% year-over-year from $423,700 one year ago.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 268,810 on an adjusted annualized basis in May, down 3.1% from 277,360 in April. The statewide median price paid for a home was $930,260 in May, up 3.1% from $909,410 last May. The increase in the median price was attributed to more homes selling in the higher range than the lower range, as higher price range buyers have been less impacted by gas prices, inflation, etc. They also have more money in the stock markets, which are at or near record highs.

Have a great weekend!

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 18, 2026, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.47%, down from 6.52% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.81%, down slightly from 5.84% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 11, 2026, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.52%, up from 6.48% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.84%, up from 5.79% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.