Economic Update | Week Ending June 21, 2025

Weekly Economic Update; WEU
Economic news this week – After last week’s favorable inflation data showing that inflation levels were at 3-year lows, the Federal Reserve elected to hold its key interest rates at the current level for the fourth consecutive meeting. Investors and economists were disappointed with that decision as inflation has tamed, and the U.S. rates are well below the rates in other major countries, and the economy has slowed. Usually, these factors would lead to the Fed dropping rates to more neutral levels from the current restrictive levels that have been in place to slow inflation. Unfortunately, the Fed felt that the risk of tariff induced future inflation and the risk of rising oil prices due to the war in the Middle East warranted leaving rates unchanged at this time.

Stock markets -The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,206.82, down 1.3% from 42,762.87 last week. Year-to-date, it is down 5.3% from $ 44,544.66 as of December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,967.84, down 0.2% from 5,976.97 last week. Year-to-date the S&P is down 1.2% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 19,447.41, up 0.2% from 19,406.83 last week. Year-to-date it is down 0.9% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.38%, down from 4.41% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.89%, almost unchanged from 4.90% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 19, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.81%, down slightly from 6.84% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.96%, nearly unchanged from 5.97% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. The California Association of Realtors released their figures on Wednesday the National Association of Realtors will release May’s figures next week. These are California’s May home sales figures.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 254,100 on an annualized basis in May, down 5.1% from 267,710 in April. Year-over-year sales were down 4% from a revised 264,840 annualized homes one year ago. The statewide median price paid for a home was $900,170 in May, down 1.1% from $910,160 in April. Year-over-year, the statewide median price was down 0.9% from $908,000 in May 2024. There was a 3.8-month supply of homes for sale in May, up from a 3.5-month supply of homes for sale in April, and up from a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale last May.

The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | June 19, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 19, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.81%, down slightly from 6.84% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.96%, nearly unchanged from 5.97% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Economic Update | Week Ending June 14, 2025

Weekly Economic Update; WEU
Inflation remained cooler in May – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up from an annual rate of 2.3%, its lowest reading since early 2021, to 2.4% in May. That year-over-year increase matched its lowest level this year and its lowest level in four years, with the exception of April’s reading. Core CPI, which excludes volatile costs like food and energy, was up 2.8% year-over-year, matching April’s 4-year low. Economists surveyed expected a 2.5% increase in Headline CPI and a 2.9% increase in Core CPI, so this report beat expectations. So far tariffs have not caused inflation to rise in April and May; however, economists still fear that tariffs will drive up future inflation.

The graph below shows CPI rates year over year.

Stock markets – Stock markets were up for the week on Thursday before Israel attacked Iran and Iran retaliated. Oil prices also spiked to their highest levels in 5 months. Major indexes dropped 1.1%-1.8% on Friday to finish the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped almost 800 points on Friday to close the week at 42,197.79, down 1.3% from 42,762.87 last week. Year-to-date, it is down 6.3% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,976.97, up 0.4% from 6,000.36 last week. Year-to-date the S&P is down 1.1% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 19,406.83, down 0.6% from 19,529.95 last week. Year-to-date it is down 1.1% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.41%, down from 4.51% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.90%, down from 4.97% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 5, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.84%, nearly unchanged from 6.85% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.97%, nearly unchangedfrom 5.99% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

The graph below shows mortgage rates over the past year.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | June 12, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 5, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.84%, nearly unchanged from 6.85% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.97%, nearly unchanged from 5.99% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Economic Update | Week Ending June 7, 2025

Weekly Economic Update; WEU
Strong job report lifts stocks but pushes mortgage rates and bond yields higher – The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that 139,000 new jobs were added in May, exceeding economists’ expectations of 120,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly wages increased 3.9% year-over-year, up from a 3.8% year-over-year increase in April. On Wednesday, ADP, the world’s largest payroll company, estimated that only 37,000 new jobs were added in May. With the job market appearing to slow, stocks, bond yields, and mortgage rates dropped. For example, on Tuesday the 10-year treasury bond yield was 4.46% and dropped to 4.36% on Wednesday after the ADP report was announced. Unfortunately, everyone realized that ADP was way off again when Friday’s jobs report from The Department of Labor and Statistics showed 139,000 new jobs created in May, not the 37,000 ADP estimated. The 10-year jumped to 4.51% to close the week. Since mortgage rates follow bond yields those rose as well. Stocks also rallied as more people working at higher wages is good for the economy.

Stock markets finished higher again this week – Stock markets were in correction territory in April. Major indexes were down 12% – 17% on April 11 from December 31, but now they have rebounded to where they were at the start of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,762.87, up 1.2% from 42,270.07 last week. It is down 4% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,000.36, up 1.5% from 5,911.51 last week. The S&P is down 0.7% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 19,529.95, up 2.2%from 19,113.77 last week. It is down 0.5% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – Bond yields jumped on Friday after investors learned that 139,000 new jobs were added in May and wages increased. The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.51%, up from 4.41% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.97%, up from 4.92% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 5, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.85%, down from 6.89% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.99%, down from 6.03% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | June 5, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of June 5, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.85%, down from 6.89% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.99%, down from 6.03% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Economic Update | Week Ending May 31, 2025

Weekly Economic Update; WEU
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation showed inflation continuing to ease – On Friday, the Commerce Department released the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). Headline PCE rose 2.1% from last April. Core PCE rose 2.5% from last April. Unfortunately, The Fed and treasury bond investors are still leery that tariffs will eventually cause inflation to heat up. Both short-term and long-term interest rates are much higher than they should be with the current inflation rate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,270.07, up 1.6% from 41,603.07 last week. It is down 5.1% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,911.51, up 1.8% from 5,802.82 last week. The S&P is down 2.1% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 19,113.77, up 2% from 18,737.21 last week. It is down 2.6% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.41%, down from 4.51% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.92%, down from 5.04% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 29, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.89%, up from 6.86% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.03%, slightly up from 6.01% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Have a Great Weekend!

Economic Update | Month Ending May 31, 2025

Annual inflation rates have reached a four-year low – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April was released in May. The annual inflation rate in April dropped to 2.3%, its lowest rate since February 2021. Core CPI, which excludes volatile components like food and energy rose 2.8% year-over-year. The Producer Price Index was also released. Producer prices (wholesale prices) dropped 0.5% month-over-month in April, their largest monthly decline since 2006. Year-over-year producer prices were up 2.4% in April. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), rose 2.1% from last April. Core PCE rose 2.5% from last April. Unfortunately, the Fed and treasury bond investors are still leery of tariffs causing inflation to heat up. Both short-term and long-term interest rates are much higher than they should be with the current inflation rate.

The graph below shows the CPI rate since 2021

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – Treasury bond yields jumped in May as investors worried that tariffs may ignite inflation. The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield closed the month at 4.41%, up from 4.17% on April 30, 2025. The 30-year treasury yield ended the month at 4.92% , up from 4.66% on April 30, 2025. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates rose with treasury bonds in May – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 29, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.89%, up from 6.81% last month. The 15-year fixed was 6.03%, up from 5.94% last month.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Stock markets rebounded in May. They have now made up almost all their losses from when the tariffs were announced at the beginning of April – The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year at 42,270.07, up 3.9% from 40,669.36 on April 30, 2025. The Dow is down 5.1% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the month at 5,911.69, up 6.1% from 5,569.06 on April 30, 2025. It is down 2.1% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed at 19,113.77, up 9.6% from 17,446.34 on April 30, 2025. It is down 2.6% year-to-date.

Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. These are April’s home sales figures.

U.S. existing-home sales April 2025 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.00-million units on a seasonal annualized rate in April, down 2% from an annualized rate of 4.08 million units last April. The median price paid for a home sold in the U.S. in March was $414,000, up 1.8% from $406,600 one year ago. There was a 4.4-month supply of homes for sale in April, up from a 3.5-month supply in April 2024. First-time buyers accounted for 34% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 15% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 25% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 2% of all sales.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 267,710 on an annualized basis in April, down 3.4% from 277.0300 in March. Year-over-year sales were down 0.2% from a revised 268,170 annualized homes one year ago. The statewide median price paid for a home was $910,160 in April, up 0.2% from $904,010 last April. There was a 3.5-month supply of homes for sale in April, up from a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale last April.

The graph below lists home sales data by county in Southern California.

 

Mortgage Rate Update | May 29, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 29, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.89%, up from 6.86% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.03%, slightly up from 6.01% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Mortgage Rate Update | May 22, 2025

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 22, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.86%, up from 6.81% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.01%, up from 5.92% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.