Things To Do This Fall

LA FOOD FEST
MUSIC TASTES GOOD
JOSHUA TREE MUSIC FESTIVAL
VEUVE CLICQUOT
OFF THE HOOK SEAFOOD FESTIVAL
CAMP FLOG GNAW

Every Winery You Need To Visit In Paso Robles

Every Winery You Need To Visit In Paso Robles

DAOU VINEYARDS
ALTA COLINA
JUSTIN VINEYARDS AND WINERY
HALTER RANCH VINEYARDS
ALLEGRETTO WINES
THACHER WINERY

Every Winery You Need To Visit In Paso Robles

DAOU VINEYARDS
ALTA COLINA
JUSTIN VINEYARDS AND WINERY
HALTER RANCH VINEYARDS
ALLEGRETTO WINES
THACHER WINERY

Economic update for the week ending June 30, 2018

Stocks decline for third straight week – Global markets declined again this week as fears of a global trade war weighed on investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 24,271.41, down from 24,580.49 last week. It is down 1.8% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,718.37, down from 2,764.88. It’s up 1.7% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,510.30, down from 7,692.82 last week. It’s up 8.8% year-to-date.

Treasury Bond Yields lower this week – The 10 year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.85%, down from 2.90% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.89%, down from 3.04% last week. We watch bond rates because mortgage rates follow bond rates.

Mortgage Rates stable this week –  The June 28, 2018 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.55%, down from 4.57% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.04%, unchanged from 4.04% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.87%, up from 3.83% last week.

Nationwide home sales fall 0.4% in May as prices continue to increase – Extremely low inventories of homes for sale were blamed by The National Association of Realtors for a 0.4% month-over-month decrease in the number of existing homes sold in May. The number of existing home sales in 2018 up to the end of May are 3% below the first five months of 2017. Prices have continued to rise. The median price paid for a home in May increased 4.9% from May 2017. Its 75th consecutively month of year-over-year increases.

Have a great weekend!

Syd

Economic update for the week ending June 30, 2018

Stocks decline for third straight week – Global markets declined again this week as fears of a global trade war weighed on investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 24,271.41, down from 24,580.49 last week. It is down 1.8% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,718.37, down from 2,764.88. It’s up 1.7% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,510.30, down from 7,692.82 last week. It’s up 8.8% year-to-date.

Treasury Bond Yields lower this week – The 10 year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.85%, down from 2.90% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.89%, down from 3.04% last week. We watch bond rates because mortgage rates follow bond rates.

Mortgage Rates stable this week –  The June 28, 2018 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.55%, down from 4.57% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.04%, unchanged from 4.04% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.87%, up from 3.83% last week.

Nationwide home sales fall 0.4% in May as prices continue to increase – Extremely low inventories of homes for sale were blamed by The National Association of Realtors for a 0.4% month-over-month decrease in the number of existing homes sold in May. The number of existing home sales in 2018 up to the end of May are 3% below the first five months of 2017. Prices have continued to rise. The median price paid for a home in May increased 4.9% from May 2017. Its 75th consecutively month of year-over-year increases.

Have a great weekend!

Syd

The Best Places For A Big Trip in 2018

Economic update for the month ending November 30, 2017

Since the month end was Thursday this is a month end report. Stocks and bonds have Friday December 1 closings following monthly results. 

This morning the Senate passed their tax reform bill. Now it gets reconciled with the House bill. There will be a reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%, and it appears that the estate tax will phase out and be eliminated. To make up for the loss in tax revenue, many deductions will be cut back.  At this point it seems that it is very likely that state income taxes will no longer be deductible on your federal return. This has been a deduction since the individual income tax was approved by Congress in 1909. The property tax deduction will be capped at a $10,000 per year. There is no current cap now. The House has a mortgage interest deduction cap of the interest on a $500,000 loan, while the Senate was shooting for a $1,000,000 loan cap. The current cap is interest on a loan of $1,100,000. We will wait and see what this ends up at. I will keep you informed primarily with regards to cuts  in deductions for mortgage interest, property tax, and state taxes. 

Economic update for the month ending November 30,  2017  

Stock markets skyrocket in November – Tax reform, a new CFPB Director, and new Fed Chairman were considered to be a trifecta for investors.  The Dow broke 24,000 just 33 days after breaking 23,000. As tax reform crossed several hurdles in November, stocks rallied at each step. First, it passed in the House, then reached a crucial vote to move to a full vote in the Senate. As the month ended it appeared that the Senate had the votes to pass. Key to the massive rise in stock prices, this year is a reduction in corporate income tax from 35% to 20%. This is the same rate passed by the House. Investors are feeling that this substantial reduction in the corporate tax rate is a done deal. Other news that ignited the markets was the appointment by President Trump of Mick Mulvaney as director of The Consumer Financial Protection Board. The CFPB was set up after the 2008 financial collapse. While the acting director has refused to leave and has filed suit to keep her position, a judge preliminarily approved Mulvaney’s appointment. Mulvaney is considered much more friendly to financial institutions and less consumer friendly. It is widely felt that many regulations will be rolled back. Financial institutions, who feel they are over regulated, were ecstatic about the appointment. Lastly, Jerome Powell was appointed by President Trump as Chairman of the Federal Reserve to replace Janet Yellen, whose term ends next February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month at 24,272.35, up from its October 31 close of 23,348.74.  The Dow is up over 22.6% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the month at 2,647.58, up from its October close of 2,572.84. The S&P is up over 18% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the month at 6,873.97, up from last month’s close of 6,701.26. It’s up 27.2% year-to-date. 

Stock markets closed slightly lower Friday, December 1 after Mike Flynn pleaded guilty and agreed to provide information to the special council in a plea deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week at 24,231.59, up from 23,557.99 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,642.22, up from its close last week of 2,602.42. The NASDAQ closed the week at 6,847.59, down from its last week’s close of 6,889.16.

Treasury Bond yields mixed in November –The 10-year Treasury bond closed on November 30, 2017 at 2.42%, up from 2.38% at the end of October. The 30-year treasury yield ended the month at 2.83%, down from 2.88% last month.

Bond yields dropped Friday, December 1. The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week at 2.37, up from 2.34% last week. The 30-year treasury yield ended the week at 2.76%, unchanged from 2.76% last week.

Mortgage Rates stable in November – Rates remain at historically low levels. The November 30, 2017 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.90%, down slightly from 3.94%  on November 2, 2017. The 15-year fixed was 3.30%,  up  slightly from last month’s close of 3.27%. The 5-year ARM was 3.32%, up from 3.23% on November 2.

Third quarter GDP upgraded – The Commerce Department reported that the second estimate of the Gross Domestic Product, the broadest measure of the healthy of the economy rose 3.3% from an initial estimate of 3% in the third quarter. 

California jobless rate falls to 4.9% – California posted strong job gains in October adding 31,700 net new non-farm jobs. That brought the state’s unemployment rate down from 5.1% in September to 4.9% in October. Wage growth slowed as hourly wages were 3.2% higher in October from one year earlier, down from September’s wage growth of 3.8%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. California is outpacing the U.S. as the national rate of wage growth was 2.4% in October.

California existing home sales and prices – An extremely low supply of housing for sale resulted in a downtick in year over year sales in October, and continues to drive prices up. The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single family home sales totaled 431,020 in October on a seasonally annualized rate. That represents a 0.8% increase from September, but a 3.4% decrease from last October’s sales pace. The statewide median price was $546.430, up 6.1% from October 2016. The unsold inventory index dropped to a 3 month supplyof homes for sale in October from 3.2 month supply in September. There was a 3.4 month supply of homes for sale in October 2016. Year over year there are 11.5% fewer homes for sale this October than last October. Pending home sales (homes that went under contract) also dropped 2.6% from last October. 

New home sales pace at highest rate in a decade – U.S. New home sales increased 6.2% in October, the Commerce Department reported. It was the the third straight monthly gain, and the highest new home monthly sales pace since October 2007. 

New housing starts rebounds in October – The Commerce Department reported that new housing starts jumped 13.7% in October. That was the highest level since October 2016. September’s new home starts pace was down considerably because of a very steep drop in new construction  in hurricane damaged areas. Because September’s figures were depressed a 13.7% month over month increase is not as exciting as it sounds. Yet it was the highest number of permits pulled for new home construction since October 2016.

The November jobs report will be released next Friday. The  final monthly economic e-blast won’t be in the system  and postcard won’t be done until we have those numbers.

Have a great weekend,

Syd

Economic update for the week ending November 18, 2017

Stocks end week lower on tax reform uncertainty and falling oil prices –  Stocks fell for the second straight week. There was unusual volatility this week. The Dow dropped 168 points in the first three days of the week as it looked like tax reform was losing some support in Congress. On Thursday, the House passed their version and the Dow gained almost 200 points. On Friday, a few Republican Senators said they may not support the Senate version and The Dow dropped 100 points to end the week down for the second straight week.  Meanwhile, both the Senate and the House removed changes to how they would be taxing stock options for tech firms, after industry leaders argued that higher taxes on options would limit their ability to attract talent. This helped the tech heavy NASDAQ, which closed up for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week at 23,358.24, down from 23,422.22 last week. It’s up 18.2% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,578.85, down slightly from its close last week of 2,582.30. The S&P is up 15.2% YTD. The NASDAQ closed the week at 6,782.79, up from its last week’s close of 6,750.94.  It’s up 26% year-to-date.

Bond yields drop this week – The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week at 2.35%, down from 2.40% last week. The 30-year treasury yield ended the week at 2.78%, down from 2.88% last week. Mortgage rates follow treasury bond yields so we watch bond yields carefully.

Mortgage Rates up slightly this week – The November 16, 2017 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.95%, up from 3.90% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.31%, up from 3.24% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.21%, almost unchanged from 3.22% last week.

California jobless rate falls to 4.9% – California posted strong job gains in October, adding 31,700 net new non-farm jobs. That brought the state’s unemployment rate down from 5.1% in September to 4.9% in October. Wage growth slowed as hourly wages were 3.2% higher in October from one year earlier, down from September’s wage growth of 3.8%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. California is outpacing the U.S. as the national rate of wage growth was 2.4% in October.

New housing starts rebounds in October – The Commerce Department reported that new housing starts jumped 13.7% in October. That was the highest level since October 2016. September’s new home starts pace was down considerably because of a very steep drop in new construction in hurricane damaged areas. Because September’s figures were depressed, a 13.7% month-over-month increase is not as exciting as it sounds. Yet it was the highest number of permits pulled for new home construction since October 2016.

The housing sales and price report should be released next week by The California Association of Realtors.

Have a great weekend,
Syd

Here's What's Coming To All Streaming Platforms In November

It’s officially fall, which means you have a seasonal excuse to cancel plans, get cozy and watch your way through everything on every streaming platform you can finagle a login for. 

Stream the entire first season of Gilmore Girls creator Amy Sherman-Palladino’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel on Amazon this month, or catch up on the first 5 seasons of Prison Break on Hulu. The LEGO Batman Movie will grace HBO Now this November, and comedian Maria Bamford’s Lady Dynamite will hit Netflix (as will Season 2 of the criminally underrated French series Call My Agent!)

Coming to AMAZON in November

Available November 1

A Knight’s Tale

A View to Kill

Airplane II: The Sequel

Airplane!

Altar Egos

Bad Boys

Beauty Factory

Bram Stoker’s Dracula

Chasing the Star

Crocodile Dundee

Crocodile Dundee II

Dances with Wolves

Diamonds Are Forever

Die Another Day

Dirty Work

Dr. No

For Your Eyes Only

From Russia with Love

GoldenEye

Goldfinger

Kiss Kiss Bang Bang

Legally Blondes

License to Kill

Live and Let Die

Moonraker

Never Say Never Again

Nowhere to Run

No Way to Live

Octopussy

On Her Majesty’s Secret Service

Redeemer

Speed Racer

St. Elmo’s Fire

The Beautiful Ones

The Cell

The Departed

The Little Tin Man

The Living Daylights

The Man with the Golden Gun

The Peacemaker

The Pursuit of Happyness

The Spy Who Loved Me

The World is Not Enough

Thunderball

Tomorrow Never Dies

Unforgettable

Up in the Air

You Only Live Twice

Available November 3

Falling Water: Season 1

The Only Living Boy in New York, Amazon original

Available November 4

Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween

Available November 5

Life on the Line

The Lovers

Available November 6

Among Us

Pearly Gates

Available November 7

Fifty Shades of Black

Home Fires: Season 2

If You Give a Mouse a Cookie, Amazon original, Season 1

Available November 9

Armed Response

Available November 10

Allied

Available November 13

Baby Steps

Broken Mile

Orion

The Patent Scam

Available November 16

Shot Caller

Available November 17

Landline, Amazon original

Available November 19

Man Down

Available November 20

Before the Sun Explodes

Blood Ransom

Available November 21

Dark Angel: Season 1

Available November 23

Home Remedy: Season 1

The Stinky and Dirty Show, Amazon original, Season 2

Available November 24

Fences

The Big Sick, Amazon original


Available November 27

London’s Finest

Panic

The Incomparable Rose Hartman

Available November 28

Click Clack Moo Holiday Special

Available November 29

The Circle

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Amazon original, Season 1

Available November 30

Ogar: Will of Steel

Coming to HBO Now in November


Available November 1

2 Fast 2 Furious

Along Came a Spider

A Prueba (aka On Trial)

Bachelor Party

Bird on a Wire

Bride of Chucky

Broken Lizard’s Club Dread (Extended Version Available)

The Day the Earth Stood Still

Fast & Furious

The Fast and the Furious

Good Morning, Vietnam

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

Pale Rider

The Sum of All Fears

Sweet November

Terminator Salvation (Director’s Cut Available)

Volunteers

W.

Zoolander

Available November 3

El peso de la ley (aka The Weight of the Law)

Available November 4

Get Out

Available November 6

Rolling Stone: Stories from the Edge, Part 1

Available November 7

Rolling Stone: Stories from the Edge, Part 2

Available November 10

El Hipnotizador, Season 2 Premiere

Inseparables

Available November 11

The Lego Batman Movie

The Magical Wand Chase: A Sesame Street Special

War Dog: A Soldier’s Best Friend

Available November 12

Vice Principals, season 2 finale

Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, season 4 finale

Available November 13

A United Kingdom

Available November 17

Cuentas Por Cobrar (aka Achilles’ Redemption)

Available November 18

The Great Wall

Night of Too Many Stars: America Unites for Autism Program

Real Time with Bill Maher, season 15 finale

Sesame Street: A Sesame Street Thanksgiving, season 48 premiere

Available November 19

Mechanic: Resurrection

Available November 20

Baltimore Rising

Available November 24

Tracey Ullman’s Show, season 2 finale

Available November 25

Kong: Skull Island

Available November 26

Warcraft

Available November 27

Meth Storm

November 28th

HBO First Look: The Shape of Water
Coming to HULU in November

Available November 1

13 Going on 30 

25th Hour 

5th Kind

The 13th Warrior 

The Air up There

A View to Kill 

Air Bud 2: Golden Receiver 

Airplane! 

Airplane II: The Sequel 

Alfie

The Aristocats

Arizona Bushwhackers

Ashby

The Associate

Bad Boys 

Bad Santa 

Barbarella 

Barbershop 

Barbershop 2: Back in Business 

Beowulf 

Blown Away

Bound

Bram Stoker’s Dracula

Brother Bear 

Celtic Pride 

Christmas Classics: Jingle Bells 

Christmas Classics: O’Christmas Tree 

Christmas Classics: Santa’s Christmas Crash 

Christmas Classics: Santa’s Christmas Snooze 

Christmas Classics: We Wish You a Merry Christmas

Christmas with the Kranks 

Chuck Jones Collection: A Very Merry Cricket 

Corky Romano 

Cougars, Inc. 

Crocodile Dundee 

Crocodile Dundee II 

D3: the Mighty Ducks 

Dances with Wolves 

Dead Hands Dig Deep

Dead Man on Campus 

Delta Farce 

Diamonds Are Forever 

Die Another Day 

Dirty Work 

Double Take 

Doug’s First Movie

Dr. No

Ella Enchanted

Flesh + Blood

For Your Eyes Only

From Russia with Love

Goldeneye 

Goldfinger 

Grumpy Old Men 

Grumpier Old Men 

Home for the Holidays

How to Build a Time Machine

The Hunchback of Notre Dame II 

Jacob’s Ladder 

Journey to Space 

The Joy Luck Club 

Jungle to Jungle 

Jungle Book – Live Action

K-19: The Widowmaker

Kazaam 

Kung Fu Hustle 

Larger than Life

Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector

Legally Blondes 

License to Kill 

Little Man

Live and Let Die 

The Living Daylights 

Maid in Manhattan

Man of the House

The Man with the Golden Gun 

The Marrying Man 

Mean Creek 

Men in Black 

The Mighty Quinn

Moonlight Mile

Moonraker 

The Mothman Prophecies

Mr. Holland’s Opus

Never Say Never Again 

Nixon 

Ocean’s Eleven

Octopussy 

On Her Majesty’s Secret Service

Open Range

Out Cold 

Outside Providence 

The Peacemaker

Permanent Midnight 

Pinocchio 

Proof 

Pumpkin

Pumpkinhead II: Blood Wings

The Purple Rose of Cairo 

The Quiet American 

The Rescuers

Rabbit-Proof Fence

The Saint 

Saved! 

Scream

Shaolin Soccer 

She’s All That

Shopgirl 

Shriek If You Know What I Did Last Friday the 13th 

Six Days, Seven Nights 

Split Decisions 

The Spy who Loved Me 

Summer’s Moon 

The Swan Princess: The Mystery of the Enchanted Treasure 

The Swan Princess Christmas 

The Sweetest Thing 

The Sword in the Stone 

Teen Wolf 

Terminator 2: Judgement Day 

Thunderball 

Tomorrow Never Dies 

Treasure Planet 

Unforgettable 

Up in the Air

The Usual Suspects 

What’s the Worst that Could Happen? 

Winnie the Pooh: A Very Merry Pooh Year 

Winter’s Bone

The World is not Enough

You Only Live Twice

Available November 2

Total Divas: Season 7 Premiere (E!)

The Penguin King

Available November 3

Player vs. Player: Season 1 Premiere (ESL)

Available November 4

It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia: Complete Season 12

Man Seeking Woman: Complete Season 3

Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween

Available November 5

ESL Replay: Season 1 Premiere (ESL)

Hannah Montana the Movie

Life on the Line 

Zero Days 

Available November 7

Vanderpump Rules: Complete Season 5 (Bravo)

Available November 8

Gadgetgang in Outerspace

Much Ado About Nothing

Oddball 

White Haired Witch 

Available November 10

Bootcamp: Immortals: Season 1 Premiere (ESL)

Taboo: Complete Season 1

Allied 

Austin Found 

The Song

Available November 11

Citizen Jane

Obey Giant: Hulu Original Documentary 

Their Finest

Available November 14

Future Man: Series Premiere (Hulu Original)

Guidance: Complete Season 2 

Available November 15

Uncontrollably Fond: Complete Season 1 

Extract

Iron Sky 

Parkland

Still Breathing 

Available November 16

Gameface: Complete Season 1

There’s…Johnny!: Complete Season 1 

Whose Streets?

Available November 19

Baskets: Complete Season 2

Man Down

Available November 20

Whitey

Available November 21

Blossom: Complete Series 

Marvel’s Runaways: Series Premiere (Hulu Original)

Available November 22

Chicago Med: Season 3 Premiere

The Assassin Next Door 

Stander

Available November 23

Prison Break: Complete Seasons 1-5

Happy Christmas

Available November 24

Fences 

Available November 30
Monkey Business

Person to Person

Economic update for the week ending August 19, 2017

Stocks drop for second week – Political drama and a terrorist attack in Barcelona weighed on investors and were attributed by analysts as the cause of stocks falling this week. Stocks are now off about 2% from their all time highs just two weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week at 21,674.51, down from 21,858.33 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,425.55, down from its close last week of 2,441.33. The NASDAQ closed the week at 6,216.53, down from last week’s close of 6,256.56. 

Bond yields stable this week – The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week at 2.19%, unchanged from 2.19% last week. The 30-year treasury yield ended the week at 2.78%, almost unchanged from 2.79% last week. Mortgage rates follow treasury bond yields so we watch bond yields carefully.

Mortgage Rates down slightly this week – The August 17, 2017 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.89%, down slightly from 3.90% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.16%, down slightly from 3.18% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.16% up slightly from 3.14% last week. 

Existing home sales and prices higher in July than last July – Sales of existing homes in California totaled a seasonally annualized rate of 421,460 units in July, according to the California Association of Realtors. The number of sales of existing homes was down 4.9% from June’s sales pace. July’s sales pace was still 0.9% higher than last July. The statewide median price was $549,460, up 7.4% from July 2016. There was a 3.2 month supply of homes for sale, up from 2.7 months in June, but down from 3.6 months in July 2016. 

Have a great weekend!
Syd