Economic Update for the Week Ending May 2, 2020

Stock Markets Posted Their Largest Monthly Gains in 30 Years in April

Stocks recovered in April after a devastating March. Despite a disappointing 4.8% decline in first quarter GDP, the worst quality decline since 2008, stocks ended the month much higher. Approximately $3 Trillion in government stimulus to businesses and individuals, unprecedented action by the Federal Reserve adding Trillions in liquidity, and states beginning to allow businesses to reopen fueled the rebound. The Dow had dropped from 29,000 in February to 18,000 by the third week of March before stead recovering. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 23,723.69, down 0.2%, from 23,775.27 last week. It’s down 16.9% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,830.71, down 0.2% from 2,836.74 last week. It’s down 12.4% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,604.95, down 0.3% from 8,634.52 last week. It’s down 4.1% year to date.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields

The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 0.64%, up slightly from 0.60 last wee. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 1.27%, up from 1.17% last week.

Mortgage Rates are at Record Lows

The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on April 30, 2020, reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed Mortgage rate average was 3.23% down from 3.33% last week. The 15-year fixed was 2.77%, down from 2.86% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.14%, down from 3.28% last week.

Unemployment Claims Jump for the Fifth Straight Week

Another 3.85 million American workers filed first-time unemployment claims last week. That brings a total of over 30 million workers laid off in the last six weeks. The unemployment rate has gone from a 50 year low of 3.6% in February to over 20%, the highest rate since the Great Depression, in just 6 weeks. Fortunately, these job losses are mostly temporary as employers will gradually rehire their workers once they are permitted to re-open.