U.S. Hiring Stalled in October – The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that only 12,000 new jobs were added in October, down from a revised 223,000 new jobs added in September, and well below what economists expected. The two hurricanes and the Boeing and other related strikes were cited as the reason for the drastic drop. It is not possible to put a number on what hiring would have occurred in southern states that are still assessing damage from two devastating hurricanes in October, or how many strike-related job losses there were. Normally a drop in hiring like this would cause the stock market to drop sharply and bond yields and mortgage rates to drop as well, but it was exactly the opposite on Friday after the report was digested, as investors accepted the hurricane and strike excuse for the low jobs number. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, unchanged from September and down from 4.2% in August. Average hourly wages increased 4% year-over-year in October, down from a 4.2% annual increase in September, but still higher than the 3.8% annual increase in July and August.
Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 42,052.19, down 1.15% from 42,114.40 last week. It is up 11.6% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,718.80, down 1.5% from 5,808.12 last week. The S&P is up 19.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,239.92, down 1.5% from 18,518.61 last week. It is up 21.5% year-to-date.
U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.37%, up from 4.25% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.57%, up from 4.51% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 31, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.72%, up from 6.54% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.99%, up from 5.71% last week.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
