Economic Update | Week Ending March 1, 2025

Reports released this week showed that jobless claims had picked up. This points to confirm other reports like a sudden drop in retail sales and consumer confidence that suggest the economy is slowing. On Friday, experts were surprised to learn that the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) in January showed just a 2.5% annual increase, down from a 2.6% annual increase in December. That marked the first inflation report in several months that did not show inflation increasing. Mortgage rates and bond yields have dropped in the last two weeks.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 43,840.91, up 1% from 43,428.02 last week. It is up 3% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,954.50, down 1% from 6,013.13 last week. The S&P is up 1.3% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 18,847.28, down 3.5% from 19,524.01 last week. It is down 2.4% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.24%, down from 4.42% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.51%, down from 4.67% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of February 27, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.76%, down from 6.85% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.94%, down from 6.04% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

Have a Great Weekend!