Economic Update | Week ending July 12, 2025

After several weeks of stock market gains and reductions in mortgage rates and bond yields, those trends reversed after President Trump announced a new round of tariffs. Stock markets are just slightly off their all-time highs so they really held pretty steady. Bond yields rose for the second straight week and mortgage rates increased from their 3-month lows last week. There was very little economic news this week besides tariff news. We did have President Trump criticizing Fed Chairman Powell for not lowering rates and Powell stating that inflation fears caused by tariffs were the reason the Fed was reluctant to lower rates. Next week we will get two major inflation reports. The CPI and PPI will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 44,371.51, down 1% from 44,828.53 last week. Year-to-date, it is down 0.4% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,259.75, down 0.3% from 6,279.35 last week. Year-to-date the S&P is up 3.62% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 20,585.53, down 0.5% from 20,691.10 last week. Year-to-date it is up 5.1% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.43% up from 4.38% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.96%, up from 4.86% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of July 10, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.72%, up from 6.67% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.86%, up from 5.8% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

June Home sale data won’t be released by the California Association of Real Estate and the National Association of Realtors until the third week of the month. We do have that June sales information now for your city or zip code on our website RodeoRe.com

Have a Great Weekend!