The Federal Reserve dropped its key interest rates by ¼% in October – Unfortunately, in the announcement of the rate drop, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed does not expect another drop this year at this time. The stock market, bond, and mortgage investors felt that there would be another drop this year. That expectation was built into stock prices and bond yields and mortgage rates. Those interest rates increased after Powell spoke, and stocks dropped a little off their all-time high levels set on Wednesday.
Stock Markets – Despite the government shutdown, stock markets closed the week at record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 47,562.87, up 0.8% from 47,207.12 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 6.8% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,840.20, up 0.7%from 6,791.69 last week. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 13.3% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 23,724.96, up 2.2% from 23,204.87 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 20.9% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.
U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.11%, up from 4.02% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.67% up from 4.59% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of October 30, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.17%, nearly unchanged from 6.19% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.41%, down slightly from 5.44% last week.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Have a Great Weekend!