| Stock markets dropped, while mortgage rates and bond yields jumped this week – Disruptions in the global oil supply from the war in Iran pushed oil prices higher this week. A barrel of oil was around $70 two weeks ago, prior to the conflict, and closed the week just over $100 a barrel. At one point it hit $120 a barrel. Oil is used in so many products and is such an influence in gas, diesel, and energy costs that it is a major contributor to inflation, which has finally showed signs of coming under control. Over the last two weeks, major stock markets have dropped over 5% and bond yields and mortgage rates have gone from 4-year lows to their highest levels of the year. To be fair, it’s a tight range and they are still lower than they were over much of the past 4-years.
Key inflation index show that inflation remained under control in February – It should be noted that this was before the war or conflict in Iran. The consumer price index (CPI) was released on Wednesday it showed that consumer prices grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in February, unchanged from January. The core (CPI), which excludes food and energy was also unchanged at 2.5%, its lowest level since 2021.
Mortgage rates – Mortgage rates have gone from the lowest rates since 2022 to the highest rates in one year over the past two weeks! Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 12, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.11%, up from 6% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.5%, up from 5.43% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 46,558.47 down 2% from 47,501.55 last week. It is down 3.1% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,632.19, down 1.2% from 6,740.02 last week. The S&P is down 3.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,105.36, down 1.2% from 22,378.68 last week. It is down 4.9% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025. U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.28%, up from 4.15% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.90%, up from 4.77% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. February home sales report – The California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors release home sales data on the third week of the month for the previous month. We expect the California Association of Realtors to release the February home sales data next week and the National Association of Realtors to release the national figures either at the end of next week or the beginning of the following week. The data is derived from MLS systems throughout the state and country. We tabulate the data from the same MLS systems and similar reports are available now for your city or zip code at RodeoRe.com. Have a Great Weekend! |
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