Economic update for the week ending April 2, 2016

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U.S. economy gains 215,000 jobs in March – Employers added 215,000 net new jobs in March. This was considered a healthy number which beat economists’ expectations of 199,000 jobs. Almost all sectors saw healthy job gains with the exception of manufacturing which lost 29,000 jobs. This was a troubling part of the report as it was hoped that manufacturing which has been hurt by a strong dollar and sluggish economic conditions overseas was starting to improve. Nevertheless the report was met positively and stocks rose upon its release. Wages continued to show sluggish growth, rising just 2.3% from last March. It’s unusual to have such strong job growth with such weak wage growth. The unemployment rate ticked up, rising from 4.9% in February to 5% in March. This was actually seen as a positive as more workers entered the workforce who had previously given up on finding a job.

 
Stocks higher this week – Stocks gained midweek after Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen, commented that The Fed will raise rates at a slow pace. This followed comments last week by members of the Fed’s open market committee that the next rate rise could come this month. Those comments caused bond rates to rise and stocks to fall. Yellen’s comments this week made investors feel rates were not raising soon which caused rates to fall and stocks to rise. The next Fed meeting is April 26 – 27. It will be interesting to see what comes out of that meeting. A strong jobs report also rallied the markets on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 17,972.75, up from 17,515.33 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,072.78, up from 2,035.94 last week. The NASDAQ closed Friday at 4,914.54, up from 4,773.50 last week.
Bond yields lower for the week – The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 1.79%, down sharply from 1.91% last week. The 30 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 2.62%, down from 2.67% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bonds carefully.

 
Mortgage rates -The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on March 31, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular products were as follows: The 30 year fixed average rate was 3.71%. The 15 year fixed average rate was 2.98%. The 5/1 ARM average was was 2.90%.

 

Pending home sales rise – The National Association of Realtors announced that pending home sales rose 3.5% in February to the highest level in seven months. The California Association of Realtors released their February pending home sales report. In California pending home sales rose 26.4% from a disappointing January. Year over year pending existing home sales 0.4% below last February’s levels.

Economic update for the week ending March 4, 2016

U.S. Employers add 242,000 jobs in February – The Labor Department reported that U.S. Employers added 242,000 new jobs in February. This was far better than the 190,000 new jobs economists surveyed had predicted. It was also viewed as a very positive sign after a disappointing 172,000 jobs added in January. It was feared after the low January report that job growth could be stalling, but the February number of 242,0000 net new jobs put the 2016 average job gains numbers back to over 200,000 per month. The national unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, the lowest level since February 2008. Wage growth was disappointing showing hourly wages up just 2.2% from last February. Wages were looking like they were beginning to rise over the last few months, after being stagnant for years, so this was a disappointing number. The Federal Reserve has a wage growth target of 3.5%.

California Unemployment Rate drops to 5.7% in January – The Employment Development Department reported that California’s unemployment rate slipped in January to 5.7%, down from 5.9% in December. Year over year non farm payrolls increased by 444,900 from last January when the state’s unemployment rate was 6.8%.

Stock markets rise for third straight week – Stocks rose again this week as rising oil prices bolstered energy stocks, and the outlook of economics in oil producing regions. Oil prices have risen 30% from their February lows. A strong jobs report showed that U.S. Employers’s are still confident and expanding, which also helped stocks on Friday after the report was released. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 17,006.77 up from 16,391.99 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 1,999.99 up from 1,948.05 last week. The NASDAQ closed Friday at 4,717.02 up from 4,590.47 last week.

Bond yields – Bond yields have risen slightly since hitting historically low levels in mid February. It’s not unusual for bond yields to rise as stocks rise as investors sell bonds to buy stocks. The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed Friday at 1.88% from 1.76% last week. The 30 year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed Friday at 2.70% from 2.63% last week.

Mortgage rates -The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey showed that average rates on February 25, 2016 were as follows: The 30 year fixed average rate was 3.64%. The 15 year fixed average rate was 2.94%. The 5/1 ARM average was was 2.84%.

Have a great weekend!