Mortgage Rate Update | January 18, 2024

Mortgage Rate Update

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes a interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of January 18, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.60%, down slightly from 6.66% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.76%, down slightly from 5.87% last week. Mortgage rates were higher at the end of the week. Next week’s rates will be higher.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S

Economic Update | Week Ending January 13, 2024

! Weekly Economic Update

Stock markets – With all eyes on the Fed and what they will do with interest rate policy, investors waited for two key inflation reports that were released this week. On Thursday, the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. It shows that inflation heated up in December. Consumer prices increased 3.4% year-over-year, up from a 3.1% year-over-year increase in November. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs rose 3.9% from one year ago. On Friday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was released. This is an index that measures wholesale prices. Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in December, up just 1% from one year ago. Consumer prices typically trail behind and mirror changes in producer prices. When producers secure goods at lower costs, the benefits are often passed on to consumers. Consumer prices generally lag behind and follow producer prices. If producers can purchase goods at a lower price that gets passed on to consumers. Bond yields and mortgage rates, which have increased in the first ten days of the year following a strong jobs report and the uptick in CPI inflation dropped on Friday following the PPI report on hopes that inflation will keep moderating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 37,592.98, up 0.3% from 37,466.11 last week. It is down 0.2% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,783.83, up 1.8% from 4,697.24 last week. The S&P is up 0.3% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 14,927.76, up 2.8% from 14,524.07 last week. It is down 0.6% year-to-date.

Bond yields and mortgage rates, which have increased in the first ten days of the year following a strong jobs report and the uptick in CPI inflation, dropped on Friday following the PPI report on hopes that inflation will keep moderating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 37,592.98, up 0.3% from 37,466.11 last week. It is down 0.2% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,783.83, up 1.8% from 4,697.24 last week. The S&P is up 0.3% year-to-date. The Nasdaq closed the week at 14,927.76, up 2.8% from 14,524.07 last week. It is down 0.6% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.96%, down from 4.05% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.20%, unchanged from 4.21% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of January 11, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.66%, up slightly from 6.62% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.87%, down slightly from 5.89% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S

December home sales data for California and the U.S. will be released next week by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. You can get December data now for your city or zip code on our website, RodeoRe.com.

Have a great weekend!

 

Mortgage Rate Update | January 12, 2024

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of January 11, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.66%, up slightly from 6.62% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.87%, down slightly from 5.89% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S

Rodeo Realty’s Los Angeles Magazine 2024 Real Estate All-Stars

We are delighted to announce that 33 agents from Rodeo Realty have been recognized as Los Angeles Magazine’s 2024 Real Estate All-Stars. This distinguished recognition is awarded to real estate professionals who have exhibited exceptional sales acumen, securing the highest regional sales volumes for the year. Rodeo Realty takes immense pride in announcing that a total of 29 individual agents and two agent teams have achieved coveted positions on this esteemed list. Congratulations to you all.

This comprehensive roster is featured in Los Angeles Magazine, who commissioned the regional residential sales survey that produced this list. Rodeo Realty extends its sincere compliments to each individual agent and team who earned this distinction, showcasing exemplary dedication, poise, and proficiency within the real estate domain. Your collective achievements have set a new standard for our business.

Carol Wolfe
Adi Livyatan
Jordana Leigh
Jimmy Heckenberg
Roger Perry
Ben Salem
Brandon Haft
Carmen Mormino
Casey Gordon
Dan Drantch
Dana Frank
David Salmanson
Desiree Zuckerman
James Respondek
Jenna Kaye
Jessica Felix
Loni Wiener
Lonnie Mintz
Marly Tempel
Matthew Paul
Oren Ovadia
Poupee Komenkul
Ron Maman
Scott Goshorn
Shane Nichols
Todd Jones
Zizi Pak
Team Marc Tahler / Ken Zietz
Team Peter Maurice / Tregg Rustad

 

Economic Update | Week Ending January 6, 2024

! Weekly Economic Update
Stock markets dropped in the first week of 2024 – After weeks of stock market gains and lower mortgage and bond yields, the year began with a reversal of those trends. This was because hiring picked up in December and wage gains, which have moderated in recent months, increased more than expected. On Thursday, ADP, the world’s largest payroll company, estimated that new jobs in December would be more robust than experts had hoped for. The December jobs report on Friday confirmed that. Lower unemployment and higher wages encourage consumer spending. The more consumers spend, the greater the risk of inflation picking back up. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December will be released next week. That will be the first measure of inflation to be released this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 37,466.11, down 1.4% from 37,689.40 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,697.24, down 1.5% from 4,769.89 last week. The Nasdaq closed the week at 14,524.07, down 3.2% from 15,011.35 last week.

The December jobs report shows an increase in hiring; The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that 216,000 new full-time jobs were added in December, up from 173,000 in November and exceeding analysts’ expectations of 175,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in December, unchanged from November. Analysts expected the unemployment rate to increase to 3.8%. The Fed is looking to get the unemployment rate to the low to mid 4% range to combat the labor shortage and get wage increases down in order to combat inflation. Average hourly wages increased 4.1% year-over-year, up from a year-over-year increase of 4% in November. Economists expected a 3.9% increase.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.05%, up from 3.88% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.21%, up from 4.03% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes mortgage interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of January 4, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.62%, unchanged from 6.61% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.89%, down from 5.93% last week. Rates rose on Thursday and Friday after news of the robust hiring in December. The 30-year jumped to near 7% on Friday.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. housing market.

Have a great weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | January 4, 2024

Mortgage Rate Update

Mortgage rates were unchanged this week – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes a interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of January 4, 2024, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.62%, unchanged from 6.61% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.89%, down from 5.93% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S. housing market.

LA’s Most Iconic Eateries | LA Eats

Los Angeles, a city renowned for its diverse, iconic, and vibrant culinary scene, offers a myriad of dining experiences. Likewise, each restaurant tells its own unique story. This curated selection of eateries takes you on a gastronomic journey through LA.

Brent’s Deli Northridge

Location: 19565 Parthenia St, Northridge

Nestled in the heart of Northridge in the San Fernando Valley, Brent’s Delicatessen and Restaurant. This cornerstone of the community offers an authentic deli experience. With a history spanning over 55 years, this family-owned deli has become famous for its hearty pastrami sandwiches, massive breakfast platters, and delicately crafted blintzes. The menu is a rich tapestry of flavors, all prepared with traditional methods passed down through generations.

Smoke House Restaurant

Location: 4420 Lakeside Dr, Burbank

A stone’s throw from some of LA’s biggest studios in Burbank is the Smoke House Restaurant. This historical gem dates back to 1946. This establishment is more than just a restaurant; it’s a cultural landmark where Hollywood’s creatives convene. The menu pays homage to classic American cuisine, featuring charred steaks and robust flavors. The dining room, echoing a bygone era, provides a rustic and lively ambiance.

Newport Seafood Restaurant

Location: 518 W Las Tunas Dr, San Gabriel

Newport Seafood Restaurant has been a culinary beacon in the San Gabriel Valley since 1996. Blending Vietnamese and Chinese culinary traditions, the result creates an unforgettable dining experience. Under the capable guidance of Sophia Lau, daughter of founders Wendy Lam and Ly Hua, this bustling restaurant has become a favorite for its unique offerings. The menu is a celebration of seafood. Likewise, expect dishes like scallion, ginger, and garlic-flavored lobster, and the richly seasoned beef luc lac.

Musso & Frank Grill

Location: 6667 Hollywood Blvd, Hollywood

As Hollywood’s oldest restaurant, Musso & Frank Grill has been a culinary icon for over a century. This legendary establishment is renowned for its mastery of Continental classics, including a superb French onion soup. The dining room, steeped in history, creates an ambiance that is quintessentially LA and utterly timeless.

Jitlada Restaurant

Location: 5233 Sunset Blvd, Los Angeles

A cornerstone of Thai Town since the 1970s, Jitlada experienced a renaissance in 2006.  Enjoy an extensive menu with rare Southern Thai specialties. The restaurant’s ambiance, with its packed tables and dim lighting, provides a cozy backdrop. Indulge in dishes like the crispy morning glory salad, mussels in a fragrant lemongrass broth, and the fiery turmeric-fried catfish. The expansive menu encourages communal dining. Likewise, this allows guests to explore the rich tapestry of Southern Thai cuisine in a setting that’s as classic as it gets.

The Tower Bar

Location: 8358 Sunset Blvd

The Tower Bar on the Sunset Strip in West Hollywood is nothing short of iconic. Owned by Jeff Klein, this staple hotel bar has been the epicenter of countless Hollywood deals and clandestine meetings over the years. Its reputation as a discreet and upscale haven for the socially mobile of Los Angeles adds to its allure. The bar’s understated elegance and shadowy corners make it an ideal spot for both industry insiders and a new generation of patrons drawn to the mystique of Old Hollywood. The atmosphere is electric, filled with the excitement of great fun and unparalleled people-watching opportunities.

Tail O’ the Pup

Location: 8512 Santa Monica Blvd

Tail O’ the Pup, opened in 1946, is a beloved part of LA’s history, known for its iconic hot dog-shaped building in West Hollywood. Recently revitalized, the establishment continues to serve its classic American fare mere blocks from its original location on La Cienega Boulevard. Patrons can enjoy split-grilled hot dogs, crispy fries, and hearty cups of beef chili, all while appreciating the nostalgic charm of one of LA’s most historic programmatic theme buildings. The updated Tail O’ the Pup offers a unique blend of tradition and modernity, making it a must-visit for both history enthusiasts and foodies alike.

Dan Tana’s

Location: 9071 Santa Monica Blvd, West Hollywood

Since its opening in 1964, Dan Tana’s has been the iconic quintessential Hollywood hangout. This Italian American restaurant buzzes with energy late into the night, every night of the week. The menu features beloved classics like chicken parmesan and grilled steaks, while the bar is a legendary spot for rubbing shoulders with celebrities. The vibrant and intimate atmosphere of Dan Tana’s captures the essence of Hollywood’s golden era, making it a timeless favorite among locals and visitors alike.

Polo Lounge

Location: 9641 Sunset Blvd, Beverly Hills

The Polo Lounge, a storied establishment nestled in Beverly Hills, is renowned for its idyllic patio setting and illustrious history. This lunchtime haven boasts a lush garden ambiance and impeccable service, creating an oasis in the heart of the city. While the menu offers straightforward, albeit pricey, fare, the experience of dining here is about more than just the food. Guests come for the classic McCarthy salad and other mid-century dishes, but the real draw is the chance to be part of the Hollywood elite, potentially mingling with stars in a setting that exudes luxury and exclusivity.

Dan Sung Sa

Location: 3317 W 6th St, Los Angeles, CA 90020 Phone: (213) 487-9100

Established in 1997 by owner Caroline Cho, Dan Sung Sa is an iconic cornerstone of Koreatown, bringing the essence of Korean street-style pubs, known as pojangmacha or pocha, to Los Angeles. This popular spot serves an array of comfort foods perfect for late-night cravings, including grilled skewers, cheesy corn, and hearty stews. These dishes are designed to complement the extensive selection of beer and soju, making Dan Sung Sa a go-to destination for those looking to experience a slice of Korean nightlife. The pub’s vibrant atmosphere and commitment to authentic Korean flavors have made it a beloved institution, remaining open daily until 2 a.m. for night owls and food enthusiasts alike.

Luxury Decor Trends for 2024 | Home Tips

As the calendar turns to the New Year, it presents an ideal opportunity to rejuvenate the aesthetic of your luxury home. For 2024, the trend in high-end decor is a harmonious blend of sophistication and modernity, offering ample opportunities to refine and enhance your living spaces.

The Resurgence of Opulent Textures

This year, luxurious textures take center stage. Velvet and silk, long associated with regal elegance, are making a strong comeback. Consider reupholstering your furniture with these rich fabrics, not just for their luscious appearance but for the unique tactile experience they offer. A velvet sofa or silk draperies can instantly uplift your space, adding depth and warmth.

Bold Color Palettes: A Statement of Luxury

Gone are the days of playing it safe with neutrals. 2024’s palette is bold and daring, embracing deep blues, emerald greens, and even metallic hues. These colors can transform a room, imparting a vibrant, contemporary energy. However, the key is balance. Use these colors as accents – in pillows, art, or a feature wall – to ensure they enhance rather than overpower your space.

Sustainability Meets Luxury

Sustainability is no longer a mere trend but a necessity, and the luxury home sector is leading the way. This year, we’re seeing a surge in the use of sustainable materials that don’t compromise on style. Consider reclaimed wood for flooring or furniture, recycled glass for backsplashes or countertops, and eco-friendly, non-toxic paints. These choices not only look good but also demonstrate a commitment to environmental responsibility.

Customization: The Ultimate Luxury

Personalization is the pinnacle of luxury. Bespoke furniture pieces, custom art, and one-of-a-kind decor items allow homeowners to express their unique tastes and stories. Investing in artisanal or custom-made pieces ensures that your home stands out and reflects your personality.

Integrating Technology with Decor

In 2024, luxury home decor is not just about aesthetics but also about integrating technology seamlessly. Smart lighting systems that can change the ambiance of a room with a voice command, hidden speakers that blend into your decor, and automated window treatments are just a few examples of how technology is enhancing the luxury home experience.

The Revival of Traditional Design Elements

While contemporary trends are prevalent, there’s a renewed interest in traditional design elements. Classic patterns, vintage pieces, and antique furniture are being reimagined in modern contexts. The juxtaposition of old and new creates a dynamic and interesting space that respects the past while embracing the future.

Outdoor Spaces as Extensions of Indoor Luxury

Lastly, luxury living in 2024 extends beyond the interior. Outdoor spaces are being transformed into luxurious extensions of the home. Think elegantly furnished patios, outdoor kitchens, and even exterior art installations. These spaces offer a seamless transition from indoors to outdoors, perfect for entertaining or relaxation.

In conclusion, luxury home decor in 2024 is about creating a space that is both stylish and personal. It’s a blend of bold choices, sustainable practices, technological integration, and a nod to traditional elegance. By embracing these trends, you can ensure your home is not only contemporary and chic but also uniquely yours.

Economic Update | Year Ending December 31, 2023

Inflation led the markets in 2023 – We began the year with the inflation rate at 6.5%, down from its peak of 9.1% in June of 2022. The inflation rate was 3.2% in November and many experts feel that December will be lower. That figure will be released in January. After nearly two years of rising interest rates, the Fed shifted course in December. They announced that their efforts to tame inflation were working and that they felt that the trajectory of inflation is expected to continue to drop. Their guidance for 2024 is that they expect to drop rates three times. With the Fed Fund Rate at a 23-year high that was welcome news to investors.

Stock markets soared in 2023 – Stock markets had a banner year. The Dow and S&P approached their record highs set in 2021, while the NASDAQ gained over 43%, yet is still well off its highs of 2021. It has been a strange two years. In 2022 when inflation began to rise to 40-year highs, the Fed began raising interest rates to slow the economy. Most experts felt that these steep interest rate increases would throw the country into a recession and stocks had one of their worst years in 2022, with steep losses. As the Fed kept increasing rates, employers kept hiring, and the unemployment rate remained at or near 60-year lows. With a shortage of employees’ wages increased above the rate of inflation. With the job market so strong consumers kept sending at record levels. Consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of the U.S. economy. Not only did a recession not materialize, but the economy grew at a high rate.  The GDP, the broadest gage of economic output, was up 2.0% in Q1, 2.1% in Q2 and 4% in the fourth quarter. That’s above the long-term average of 3.19%. The fourth quarter GDP figure will be released in January. The outlook for 2024 is strong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year at 37,689.40, up 13.7% from 33,147.25 on December 31, 2021.  The S&P 500 closed the year at 4,769.89, up 24.2% from 3,839.50 on December 31, 2022.  The NASDAQ closed at 15,011.35, up 43.4% from 10,466.48 at the end of 2022.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields rise 2022 – The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield closed the year at 3.88%, up from 3.88% On December 31, 2022. It went over 5% in October, but fell in November and December. It was 1.52% on December 31, 2021. The 30-year treasury yield ended the year at 3.97%, up from 3.97% on Dec. 31, 2022. It hit 5% in October, before falling in the last two months. It was 1.90% on December 31, 2021. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage Rates – It was a turbulent year for mortgage rates. The year began with rates in the mid 6% range, but they rose sharply in September and October, before ending the year back to where they began. Fortunately, with inflation taming it appears that rates will continue to drop in 2024. The December 28, 2023 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average was 6.61%, up from 6.42% on December 29, 2022. The 30-year peaked at 8% in October, before dropping sharply in November and December.  It was 3.11% on December 28, 2021. The 15-year fixed was 5.93%, up from 5.68% last December. The graph below shows the trend of mortgage rates over the last year.

U.S. existing-home sales – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 3.82 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in November, down 7.3% from an annualized rate of 4.12 million in November 2022.  The median price for a home in the U.S. in November was $387,600, up 4% from $372,700 last November. There was a 3.5-month supply of homes for sale in November, up from a 3.3-month supply last November. First-time buyers accounted for 31% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 14% of all sales. All-cash purchases accounted for 29% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 1% of all sales.

Home sales hit an all-time low in 2023 – California Association of Realtors November existing-home sales reportThe California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 223,940 units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in November, down 7.4% from October. November marked the third straight month of the annualized sales rate dropping under 250,000, a level that was thought could never happen, and the 29th straight month of year-over-year declines in sales. Year-to-date, the number of homes sold was down 25.9% in November. Prior to 2022 home sales have rarely dropped below 400,000 in decades. They will end the year somewhere around 250,000. While historically interest rates are not that high, compared to the lowest rates in 50-years during COVID the shock of going from the lowest rates in decades to the highest rates in 23-years has caused many potential home sellers to put off their move. In a normal year about 50% of sales are what we call move-up buyers. Those are people selling a home to purchase another. When your mortgage is at a 3% rate, it’s difficult to sell it and purchase another with a mortgage at a 7% rate. For example, if you own a $2 million dollar home with a $1 million mortgage at 3%, your payment with taxes and insurance is about $4,500. If you put your $1 million in equity down on your new $4 million dollar home and obtained a $3 million loan at 6.5% (down from almost 8% two months ago) your payment with tax and insurance would be around $24,000 a month. That’s a big jump and has caused many people to stay in their current home that would normally move to a new home. When people put off their move it reduces the number of homes for sale. This is exactly what is happening now. The statewide median price paid for a home in November was $822,200, up 6.2% from a revised $774,150 a year ago. There was a 3-month supply of homes on the market, up from a 2.7-month supply of homes for sale in October, and down from a 3.2-month supply one year ago.

The graph below shows sales data by county in Southern California.

Economic Update | Month Ending December 31, 2023

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Stock markets ended the month sharply higher – Investors pushed stocks higher this month following news from the Fed that they are shifting their monetary policy. For the first time in two years the Fed has come out and acknowledged that their tightening campaign has tamed inflation and that they feel that there could be as many as three rate cuts next year. With their key interest rates at their highest levels in 23 years, rate cuts are something that investors are looking forward to. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month at 37,689.40, up 4.8% from 35,950.89 on November 30. It gained 13.7% in 2023. The S&P 500 closed the month at 4,769.89, up 4.4% from 4,567.90 last month. It gained 24.2% in 2023. The NASDAQ closed the month at 15,011.35, up 5.3% from 14,262.22 last month. It is up 43.4% from its close in 2022.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the month yielding 3.88%, down from 4.38% last month. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the month at 4.03%, down from 4.54% last month. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates as of December 28, 2023, for the most popular loan products were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.61%, down from 7.22% at the end of November. The 15-year fixed was 5.93%, down from 6.56% at the end of November.

Home sales figures are released by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors on the third week of the month for the previous month. These are November’s results.

U.S. existing-home sales – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 3.82 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in November, down 7.3% from an annualized rate of 4.12 million in November 2022. The median price for a home in the U.S. in November was $387,600, up 4% from $372,700 last November. There was a 3.5-month supply of homes for sale in November, up from a 3.3-month supply last November. First-time buyers accounted for 31% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 14% of all sales. All-cash purchases accounted for 29% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 1% of all sales.

California Association of Realtors November existing-home sales report – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 223,940 units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in November, down 7.4% from October. November marked the third straight month of the annualized sales rate dropping under 250,000, a level that was thought could never happen, and the 29th straight month of year-over-year declines in sales. Year-to-date, the number of homes sold was down 25.9% in November. Prior to 2022 home sales have rarely dropped below 400,000 in decades. They will end the year somewhere around 250,000. While historically interest rates are not that high, compared to the lowest rates in 50-years during COVID the shock of going from the lowest rates in decades to the highest rates in 23-years has caused many potential home sellers to put off their move. In a normal year about 50% of sales are what we call move-up buyers. Those are people selling a home to purchase another. When your mortgage is at a 3% rate, it’s difficult to sell it and purchase another with a mortgage at a 7% rate. For example, if you own a $2 million dollar home with a $1 million mortgage at 3%, your payment with taxes and insurance is about $4,500. If you put your $1 million in equity down on your new $4 million dollar home and obtained a $3 million loan at 6.5% (down from almost 8% two months ago) your payment with tax and insurance would be around $24,000 a month. That’s a big jump and has caused many people to stay in their current home that would normally move to a new home. When people put off their move it reduces the number of homes for sale. This is exactly what is happening now. The statewide median price paid for a home in November was $822,200, up 6.2% from a revised $774,150 a year ago. There was a 3-month supply of homes on the market, up from 2.7-month supply of homes for sale in October, and down from a 3.2-month supply one year ago.

The graph below shows sales data by county in Southern California.