The longest government shutdown in history ended this week – Stock markets were almost unchanged this week following last week’s sell-off off which marked the worst week for stock markets in seven months. The week started off well. Stock markets rallied to near record highs when a deal to reopen the government was reached. As people were called back to work, there were a lot of questions as to how much the 43-day shutdown would impact the economy. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the disruption is expected to reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by about 1.5 percentage points. All in all, tens of thousands of federal workers missed paychecks, contractors lost business, consumer spending was curtailed during the six-week interruption, and key data like jobs and unemployment, inflation, retail sales, etc., were not released as planned because the workers who tabulate the data were furloughed. Investors are anxious about how consumers will behave after six weeks of disrupted pay and routines. Many of those wages are lost (or delayed) and won’t get recycled instantly into restaurant meals, travel, shopping, etc. That means some spending is permanently displaced this quarter. That, in turn, is one reason stocks faltered despite the end of the shutdown. Additionally, investors are worried about comments from Fed Chairman Powell and other Fed members that alluded to no Fed interest rate drop in December. Investors felt that another drop in December was almost certain until Powell and other Fed members’ comments.
Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 47,147.48, up 0.3% from 46,987.10 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 5.8% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,734.11, up 0.1% from 6,728.80 last week. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 11.5% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,900.59, down 0.5% from 23,004.54 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 16.7% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.
U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.14%, up from 4.11% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.74%, up from 4.70% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of November 13, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.24%, nearly unchanged from 6.22% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.49%, nearly unchanged from 5.5% last week.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Have a Great Weekend!