Inflation cooled in November – On Thursday the government released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. It showed that consumer prices rose 2.7% from one year ago in November. While still far from the Fed’s 2% annual target it was much lower that the 3.1% that economists polled expected. The core CPI rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices rose 2.6% from one year ago, also below economists’ expectations. This gave hope to investors that inflation may be cooling enough for the Fed to continue to lower rates.
November jobs report shows some weakness in the labor market – The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the November jobs report on Wednesday. Usually, jobs reports are released on the first Friday of each month, but the October and November reports were delayed until Wednesday due to the government shutdown that ended in November. It showed that U.S. employers added just 64,000 jobs in November and that 105,000 jobs were lost in October. The unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September, its highest level in four years.
Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 48,134.89, down 0.7% from 48,458.05 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 8.1% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,834.50, up 0.1% from 6,827.41 last week. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 13.1% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 23,303.62, up 0.5% from 23,195.17 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 18.7% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.
U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.16%, down slightly from 4.19% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.82%, down slightly from 4.85% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of December 18, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.21%, nearly unchanged from 6.22% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.47%, down from 5.54% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
November home sales – The California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Real Estate release home sales data on the third week of each month for the previous month. Here is the November 2025 home sales recap. You can run a report on your city or zip code with the same data at RodeoRe.com
U.S. existing-home sales – November 2025 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.13 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in November, up 0.5% from the number of homes sold in October and down 1% from the number of homes sold last November. The median price paid for a home sold in the U.S. in November was $409,200, down from $415,200 in October, but up 1.2% from $404,400 one year ago. There was a 4.2-month supply of homes for sale in November, up from a 3.8-month supply last November. First-time buyers accounted for 30% of all sales, up from 30% last month. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 18%of all sales, down from 15% in August. All cash purchases accounted for 27% of all sales, up from 30% last month. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 2% of all sales
California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 287,940 on an annualized basis in November, up 1.9% from 285,590 in October. Year-over-year sales were up 2.6% from a revised 280,530 annualized home sales last November. The statewide median price paid for a home in was $852,680 in November, down 3.9% from 886,960 in October. Year-over-year the median price was almost unchanged from $852,880 last November. The unsold inventory index showed that there was a 3.1-month supply of homes for sale in October. These numbers ae a little deceiving. Prices have dropped more than the median price indicates. The median price is the mid-point of all homes sold. Basically, it’s the point where one half of the homes sold for more and one half of the homes sold for less. Usually, the median price is a good indicator of prices across the board. There are times when conditions impact that. This is one of those times. With stock market values at all-time highs, which they were in October, people invested in the stock market are flusher than people that are not. Additionally, many of the factors that impact people’s ability and desire to buy a home affect people more in the lower income range than they affect people in higher income ranges. That’s happening now. Sales are down in all price ranges compared to any time prior to interest rates rising in mid-2022, but sales in the lower price ranges as a percentage of all sales are fewer than we would normally see as those people are more impacted by inflation, don’t have stocks, etc.
The graph below shows CAR sales data by county for Southern California.
Have a Great Weekend!