| What a month we’ve had. Mortgage rates moved from their lowest levels since 2022 to the highest point in about a year, driven largely by escalating tensions in Iran. Oil prices surged from around $70 per barrel to nearly $120, ending the month near $110. This has put pressure across the entire economy, as higher oil prices translate directly into increased costs for gasoline, diesel, and transportation of goods-raising the risk of renewed inflation. At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to leave interest rates unchanged, citing concerns that rising energy prices, fertilizer costs, and supply disruptions-particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows-could push inflation higher. While February’s Consumer Price Index came in at a relatively low 2.4%, that data preceded the recent conflict. Meanwhile, the stock market reacted negatively to the uncertainty, declining roughly 3%-5% for the month.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. T he Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 26, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.38%, up from 5.98% last month. The 15-year fixed was 5.75%, up from 5.44% last month. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year. Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month at 46,286.01, down 5.5% from 48,977.92 on February 28, 2026. The Dow is down 3.7% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,527,27, down 5.1% from 6,879.98 on February 28, 2026. The S&P is down 4.7% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 21,592.47, down 4.6% from 22,688.21 at the end of February. The Nasdaq is down 7.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025. U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed the month at 4.22%, up from 3.97% On January 31, 2026. The 30-year US treasury bond yield ended the month at 4.85%, up from 4.64% on January 31, 2026. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields. Home sales figures are released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. Here is a summary of the February existing home sales reports. U.S. existing-home sales – February 2026 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.09 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in February, up 1.7% from the number of homes sold in January. Year-over-year home sales were down 1.4% from the number of homes sold last February. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in February was $398,000, up 0.3% year-over-year from $396,800 last February. California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 274,820 on an adjusted annualized basis in February, up 7% from 256,550 annualized sales in January and down 0.3% from 275,600 last February. The statewide median price paid for a home in February was $830,370, up 0.9% from $823.180 in January. That marked the first month-over-month increase since last May and a relief from January when the median price reached a 23-month low. Year-over-year, February’s median price was down 1.9% from $839,130 one year ago. There were fewer listings in February. The unsold inventory index dropped to a 4.0-month supply of homes for sale in February, down from 4.4-months in January. Below is the housing data for Southern California by County.
|
News & Media
