| On Friday, a deal was announced to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Combined with the ceasefire two weeks ago, markets have responded quickly, with stocks rising more than 10% over that period and returning to near all-time highs. Oil prices, which were around $60 per barrel before the conflict and spiked to nearly $120, have since dropped back to about $80 as of Friday.
Interest rates, however, have not fully followed that same trajectory. While they have come down from their recent highs, they remain elevated compared to pre-conflict levels. The 30-year fixed rate had dipped below 6% in February-its lowest point since 2022-but surged to approximately 6.75% after the conflict began and has now eased to around 6.3%. Unfortunately, rates tend to fall more slowly than they rise. With interest rates closely tied to inflation, the key question over the coming months will be how the recent spike in energy prices impacts inflation moving forward. Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of April 16, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.3%, down from 6.37% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.65%, down from 5.74% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 49,447.43, up 3.2% from 47,915.57 last week. It is up 2.9% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,126.06, up 4.5% from 6,816.89 last week. The S&P is up 4.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 24,468.48, up 6.8% from 22,902.90 last week. It is up 5.3% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025. U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.26%, down from 4.31% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.88%, down slightly from 4.91% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Home sales are released about the third week of the month by the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. This week, the National Association of Realtors released its March home sale report. The California Association of Realtors should release its report next week. You can get the March sales numbers for your city or zip code from our website, RodeoRe.com. We tabulate and release using the same data on the 8th of each month. U.S. existing-home sales – March 2026 – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 3.98 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in March, down 3.6% from the number of homes sold in February. Year-over-year home sales were down 1% from the number of homes sold last March. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in March was $408,800, up 1.4% year-over-year from $403,100 last March. Have a Great Weekend! |
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