Economic Update | Week Ending May 30, 2026

Stocks moved higher this week while Treasury yields and mortgage rates edged slightly lower. Investors were encouraged by signs of easing geopolitical tensions and improving trade discussions, which helped boost confidence on Wall Street. At the same time, bond markets stabilized as investors anticipated that lower energy prices and moderating economic growth could help reduce future inflation pressures. As a result, mortgage rates declined modestly, although they remain elevated compared to earlier this year.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, was released this week and showed that inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The PCE Index rose 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.5% the previous month, while Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.3%. Because the Federal Reserve closely watches the PCE Index when making interest rate decisions, the report suggests the Fed may remain cautious about cutting interest rates too quickly despite signs that economic growth is beginning to moderate.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of May 28, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.53%, up slightly from 6.51% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.87%, up slightly from 5.85% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 51,032.36, up 0.9% from 50,579.70 last week. It is up 6.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,589.06, up 2% from 7,437.47 last week. The S&P is up 10.9% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,972.62, up 2.4% from 26,343.97 last week. It is up 16.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.45%, down from 4.56% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.99%, down from 5.07% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Have a great weekend!