Economic Update | Week Ending July 11, 2026

Next week, all eyes will be on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which should provide a clearer picture of the direction of inflation. One of the key factors we’ll be watching is whether the recent decline in gasoline prices helped ease overall inflation during June. Lower energy costs can have a meaningful impact on the headline CPI, although core inflation, which excludes food and energy, will remain the Federal Reserve’s primary focus. A softer-than-expected inflation report could improve the outlook for interest rates and mortgage rates, while a higher reading may reinforce the Fed’s cautious approach.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of July 9, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.49%, up from 6.43% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.82%, up from 5.79% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Stock markets – Stocks finished the week mixed but generally resilient, with the S&P 500 posting another weekly gain as investors looked ahead to next week’s June CPI report and the start of second-quarter earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,637.01, down 0.5% from 52,900.07 last week. It is up 9.5% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,575.39, up 1.2% from 7,483.24 last week. The S&P is up 10.7% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,281.61, up 1.7% from 25,832.67 last week. It is up 13.1% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – Treasury yields moved higher during the week as bond investors remained cautious about inflation and the Federal Reserve, keeping mortgage rates under upward pressure heading into next week’s CPI report. The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.56%, up from 4.49% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.06%, up from 4.98% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

I hope you are having a great weekend!