| The economy showed continued resilience last week despite ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. U.S. business activity strengthened, with both the manufacturing and services sectors expanding, led by stronger consumer spending and a pickup in service-related activity. However, rising oil prices, renewed tariff announcements, and continued tensions in the Middle East kept inflation risks elevated, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week while maintaining a cautious outlook. Mortgage rates remained near recent highs, and investors continue to closely watch inflation, energy prices, and the Fed’s next move.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of July 23, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.58%, up slightly from 6.55% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.96%, up slightly from 5.93% last week. The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Stock markets – Major U.S. stock indexes traded near all-time highs last week, supported by strong corporate earnings and confidence that the economy continues to expand despite elevated interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 52,947.26, up 1.5% from 52,146.42 last week. It is up 10.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,411.98, down 0.6% from 7,457.69 last week. The S&P is up 8.3% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 25,975.82, up 1.8% from 25,520.24 last week. It is up 11.8% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025. U.S. Treasury Bonds – Treasury yields moved higher during the week as bond investors remained cautious about inflation and the Federal Reserve, keeping mortgage rates under upward pressure heading into next week’s CPI report. The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.69%, up from 4.56% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.16%, up from 5.06% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Home sales figures are released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. Here is a summary of the June existing home sales reports. U.S. existing-home sales – June 2026 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing-home sales totaled 4.09 units on an annualized basis in June, down 2.4% month-over-month from 4.17 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in May but up 2.8% from the number of homes sold last June. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in June was $440,600, up 1.8% from $423,700 one year ago. There was 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in June. First-time home buyers accounted for 33% of all homes sold, 28% of all sales were cash buyers, 14% of sales were investors or second home buyers, and 3% of sales were foreclosure or short sales. California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 279,880 on an adjusted annualized basis in June, up 6% from 264,110 annualized sales in June 2025. The statewide median pricepaid for a home was $904,640 in June, down 2.8% from $930,260 in May, but up 0.4% from $901,310 last June. Housing inventory tightened in June. The Unsold Inventory Index showed that there was 3.1-month supply of homes for sale in June, down from a 3.8-month supply last June.
I hope you are having a great week! |
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