July marked a rare month where the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs – The Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported that 23,000 net jobs were lost in July. That was sharply lower than the 88,000 analysts expected. Additionally, the job gains for May and June were revised downward by a combination of 103,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%, in June as discouraged workers stopped looking for work. The labor force participation rate(The percentage of people age 16 or older working or looking for work) dropped to 61.4% in July from in 61.5% in June. It is at its lowest reading since the pandemic. Average hourly wages increased 3.2% from one year ago, marking the slowest rate if wage growth in five years and well below the inflation rate.
One benefit of the weak jobs report was that interest rates moved lower as investors became less concerned that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its September meeting. With persistent inflation some Fed members voted to raise rates at the last meeting. The loss of 23,000 jobs in July and the drastic revision to the May and June figures make a rate increase at the September meeting much less likely.
Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of August 6, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.69%, up slightly from 6.66% last week. The 15-year fixed was 6.01%, down slightly from 6.04% last week.
The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
U.S. Treasury Bonds – Treasury yields moved higher during the week as bond investors remained cautious about inflation and the Federal Reserve, keeping mortgage rates under upward pressure heading into next week’s CPI report. The 10-year Treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.65%, up from 4.75% last week. The 30-year Treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.19%, up from 5.27% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.
Stock markets – U.S. stocks posted a very strong week, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.6%, the Nasdaq surged 5.2%, and the Dow rose 3.0%. Investors were encouraged by strong corporate earnings, particularly in technology, along with declining oil prices as tensions with Iran showed signs of easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 54,063.93, up 3% from 52,485.03 last week. It is up 9.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,757.64, up 3.6% from 7,489.72 last week. The S&P is up 9.4% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,690.62, up 5.2% from 25,373.85 last week. It is up 9.2% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.