Economic Update | Week Ending August 22, 2026

The economy continues to send mixed signals as the conflict with Iran remains a major source of uncertainty. Oil prices moved sharply higher this week, with WTI crude closing at about $87 a barrel and Brent at $94, as tensions with Iran and continued disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global oil supplies. Higher oil prices are being felt by consumers at the pump, with the national average price of regular gasoline now about $4.11 a gallon, up from $4.07 last week and the highest ever recorded for this time of year. There are signs that consumers are becoming more cautious, with many households concentrating their spending on necessities and postponing larger purchases. The labor market has also weakened, although unemployment claims remain low. The combination of slower hiring, cautious consumer spending and higher energy costs bears watching closely, particularly if the war continues to keep oil and gasoline prices elevated. At the same time, stock markets remain near record highs and the real estate market has continued to be fairly active with prices remaining very stable.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of August 20, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.65%, nearly unchanged from 6.67% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.95%, nearly unchanged from 5.96% last week.

U.S. Treasury Bonds- The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.68%, up from 4.68% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 5.25% up from 5.25% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 53,732.41 down 0.6% from 53,732.41 last week. It is up 11.8% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,785.76, up 0.4% from 7,786.76 last week. The S&P is up 13.7% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 26,729.16, up 0.1% from26,729.16 last week. It is up 15% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. existing-home sales – July 2026 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing-home sales totaled 4.06 units on an annualized basis in June, down 1.7% month-over-month from 4.09 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in June but up 1.4% from the number of homes sold last July. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. in June was $434,100, up 2%from one year ago. There was 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in July, unchanged from June. First-time home buyers accounted for 29% of all homes sold, 26% of all sales were cash buyers, 14% of sales were investors or second home buyers, and 2% of sales were foreclosure or short sales.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 263,170 on an adjusted annualized basis in July, down 6.0% from 279,880 in June, but up 1.1% from 260,250 annualized sales in July 2025. The statewide median price paid for a home was $887,680 in July, down 1.9% from $904,640 in June, but up 0.3% from $885,180 last July. Housing inventory loosened slightly in July but remained tighter than one year ago. The Unsold Inventory Index showed that there was a 3.4-month supply of homes for sale in July, up from 3.1 months in June, but down from a 3.7-month supply in July 2025.