Author: Rodeo Realty Media Team

DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ all ended the week at record highs – Markets are up 4-6% since the election. Investors have been bullish on prospects of higher corporate profits in the future based on hopes that Trump will deliver on promises of tax cuts, loosening of regulation, and higher infrastructure spending. The DOW Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 19,152.14, up from 18,867.93 last Friday. The DOW is up 9.9% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,213.35, up from 2,181.90 last week. The S&P is up 8.3% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,398.92, up from last week’s close of 5,321.51. The NASDAQ is up 7.8% year to date. 

U.S. Treasury Bond yields unchanged this week after rising about 1/2% in two weeks – Bond yields which shot up after the election on expectations of higher U.S. deficits held steady this week. Hopefully, mortgage rates, which move closely with treasury rates, will flatten out as well. The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 2.36%, up from 2.34% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 3.01%, unchanged from 3.01% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates continued to rise last week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey, which was released on November 23, 2016, showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 4.03%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 3.25%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 3.12%. Rates have increased further since the survey so next week’s rates will be higher. Currently, the 30-year fixed rate is around 4.25%.

U.S. existing home sales hit the highest level since February 2007 – The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes increased 2% in October to an annual rate of 5.6 million homes, the highest level since February 2007. Existing home sales are closed re-sales of single family detached homes, town homes, condominiums, and co-ops. Year over year the number of sales are up 5.9% from last October’s levels. Prices were also up nationwide as the median price this October was 6% higher than October 2015. 

California pending home sales increase in October – The number of new home contracts on re-sale homes in California increased 1.5% in October from last October’s numbers, according to data released by The California Association of Realtors. On a monthly basis, pending contracts were down 6.7% from September. The Southern California region fared even better with October sales up 6.8% from last October and up 2.4% from September. The association uses year over year rather then month over comparisons to account for seasonal changes in sales numbers. Typically sales begin to slow heading into the holidays which makes comparing same month figures more accurate. Pending home sales figures are useful because they give an indication of what closed sales figures will be in 30 to 60 days when those sales close escrow. 

I hope you had a great Thanksgiving and are enjoying a nice holiday weekend! 

Several Rodeo Realty agents spent their Sunday morning walking/running for a great cause! 

Rodeo Realty President Syd Leibovitch and agents participated in the annual Walk of Ages that was held at the Woodley Park in Van Nuys.

The family-oriented 5K Walk/Run raised much-needed funds for the Los Angeles Jewish Home.

This year, Rodeo Realty not only participating in the walk/run, but also sponsored the event. The company donated $8,000 and was an Angel Sponsor for the Walk of Ages XVII.

Rodeo Realty also set up a fundraising page through the event’s website where several agents in the company donated and raised money for the non-profit organization.

Thanks to Rodeo Realty’s support, seniors of the Los Angeles Jewish Home will be cared for in a warm, nurturing environment for generations to come. 

Stocks up again – Markets increased marginally this week, adding to the record breaking gains and levels reached last week. The DOW Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,867.93 up from 18,847.66 last Friday. It is up more than 5.5% in the week and a half since the election. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,181.90 up from 2,164.45 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,321.51 up from last week’s close of 5,237.11.

Inflation while tame increases – U.S. Consumer prices recorded their largest increase in six months in October suggesting a pickup in inflation. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% last month after rising 0.3% in September. In the last 12 months ending October, the CPI has increased 1.6%, its biggest increase since October 2014. They also measure Core CPI which excludes food and energy costs. Core CPI increased 2.1% from last October. The Fed has their own measurement of inflation. It was 1.7% in October. Their target is 2%, but most experts expect them to increase their key interest rates in December, as inflation has finally shown signs of ticking up. 
 

U.S. Treasury Bond yields jump – The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 2.34%, up from 2.15% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 3.01%, up from 2.94% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates continued to rise last week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey which was released on November 17, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.94%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 3.14%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 3.07%. Rates increased further throughout the week so next week’s rates will be higher. Currently, the 30-year fixed rate is around 4.25%. 

Home sales and prices increase in October – The California Association of Realtors released its October home sales report. The number of existing homes sold in October totaled 442,970 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That represented an increase of 4.1% from September and a year over year increase of 8% from last October’s figures. The statewide median price was $513,520, up 1.2% from September and up 7.3% from last October when the median price was $478,780. Inventory continues to be near record lows as the unsold inventory index slipped to a 3.4 month supply of homes listed in October from a 3.5 month supply in September. 

Stocks surge following election results – It was a bazar week for both stocks and bonds. If you recall, stocks fell sharply after The FBI director reopened the email investigation as investors began to fear uncertainty as Hillary Clinton’s lead tightened. That week stocks dropped every day, as investors stated they were unsure of what a Trump presidency would mean for the economy. On Sunday when the FBI again revealed it found no new evidence that would change their earlier decision stock futures rebounded and stocks improved Monday and Tuesday, as all polling pointed to a win by Clinton. Polling organizations had her at a 82% favorite. As election results came in and it became clear that Trump was about to pull off a surprise victory stock futures dropped significantly. At one point Tuesday evening DOW futures were down 800 points. There was some speculation that the DOW could drop 2,000 points and then recover, mirroring what happened following the Brexit vote. That speculation was wrong and stocks opened just slightly down and ended the day Wednesday up sharply, followed by rallies Thursday and Friday. By week’s end the DOW gained about 1,000 points, closing at an all time high with the largest weekly gain since December 2011. The S&P recorded its largest weekly gain in two years. As markets surged, analysts, looking for reasons, attributed investor excitement to expectations of lower tax rates, less regulation ( especially a trim down of the Dodd Frank financial regulation), more government spending as Trump was proposing an infrastructure build up. That said, many analysts felt that the rally may be a little exaggerated, as most are. The DOW Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,847.66, up from 17,888.28 last Friday. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,164.45, up from 2,058.18 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,237.11, up from last week’s close of 5,046.37.

U.S. Treasury Bond yields jump – As stocks surged investors sold off bonds. It’s common for money to move from the safety of low returns of bonds to more speculative higher returns of stocks when it’s felt stocks will rise. It’s also common for money to move back to the safety of bonds when it’s felt that stocks may fall. This week, as stocks had their best week in several years, bonds had their worst week as bond yields climbed to their highest rates in 3 years. Bond investors also felt that lower taxes may spur economic growth, but lead to higher deficits. They also expect higher government spending based on what has been proposed, may also improve the economy. Analysts feeling is that, while an improved economy is good it leads to higher inflation rates and would change The Fed’s plan and lead to more dramatic rate hikes. Some experts feel that all this speculation in both stocks and bonds are exaggerated. Other experts feel that rates will continue to move up, even if stocks settle down. We will have to wait and see over the coming weeks. The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 2.15%, up from 1.79% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.94%, down from 2.56% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates rise to highest levels in 3 years – Rates surged as bond yields and stocks rose sharply following the election results. Rates on just about every mortgage product increased over 1/4%. By Friday the 30 year fixed rate was close to 4%. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey which was released on November 10, 2016, showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.57%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.88%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.88%. Unfortunately, this survey was last Wednesday, November 2 to Tuesday, November 8. Rates surged after the survey period, so rates will be about 1/4% higher in next week’s survey based on where we were at the end of the week.

California housing affordability unchanged in 3rd quarter – The California Association of Realtors reported that 31% of California households could afford to purchase a median priced home ($515,940). That was unchanged from the second quarter, but up from 29% in the 3rd quarter in 2015. Although prices were higher this year, wages were higher and interest rates were lower than last year in the 3rd quarter, which increased affordability. Rates look like they will be higher in the 4th quarter so it will be interesting to see where affordability goes. The affordability for a median priced condo of $418,230 was 40%.

Next week we will have California sales figures and prices for October. It will be interesting to see what the data says. We have felt a little slowing, but, that said, we are pretty spoiled by several great years! I’d expect that sluggishness we have felt to be just temporary based on inventory, affordability levels and what experts are saying.

Have a great weekend!

Syd