Syd Leibovitch: September Wrap-up, Looking Forward
The month of September brought unexpected financial data showing more strength in the economy than was forecasted in early August. If you recall we were told in August that the economy was slowing and the recovery, which was slow, was losing steam.
September brought better results than were expected and the double dip talk has stopped. September marked the largest September gain in the Dow in 71 years! The Dow rose 773.33 points, or 7.72 percent, the best September result since 1939. At the beginning of October, retail sales and consumer spending were also reported up more than expected.
What does this mean for us? I think this means a more optimistic consumer. We have already seen sales (open escrows) rise after dropping unexpectedly in July. Going forward I would predict:
1. Slightly higher interest rates in the coming days and much higher over the next year.
2. Banks have drastically improved their balance sheets to where they are very well capitalized. (The opposite of a year ago). This will enable them to get rid of non performing loans at a higher rate which will mean more REOs.
3. Inventory levels have doubled since January and it appears will continue to increase. This increase has been due to an increase of non-distressed sellers who are buying up, and the increase in distressed properties I am predicting.
Certainly, in my mind this could keep prices from rising, and even put a little downward pressure on prices, although I think a more optimistic public will cause more sales and keep this minimal, if at all.
The extension of the $729,750 loan limits will also be a huge help. If your clients are waiting for higher prices to sell, I don’t see that happening in 2011. For buyers I just don’t see it ever being more affordable than now as higher rates will more than offset drops in price as far as low payments, in my mind.
To sum all this up. Uncertainty is a “deal killer”. I see less uncertainty going forward than any time since the end of 2007 when the mortgage credit markets collapsed. It looks like we are nearing the end of what was one of the toughest real estate markets ever.
I am quite optimistic and very grateful to all of you. Thanks to your hard work the last few years have been pretty good for Rodeo. I think economists are going to look back at September as the turning point in our economy. Let’s see if that ends up right.
Have a great weekend and GO SELL SOME HOMES!
Syd
Derrick Vallance knows the value of working floor time. That’s because a young woman recently walked into the Sherman Oaks office at about 6 p.m. and asked if she could speak with somebody about listing a home. Vallance took the meeting.
The woman, who works with an investment group, was blunt: She needed an agent who could get two houses on the market the next day, host open houses by the weekend, and somebody who was not going to make a bunch of empty promises. She said she had just fired an agent from another firm who lied about hosting open houses.
“If I weren’t at Rodeo and working late, this would have never happened,” said Vallance, adding he recently moved back to L.A. and has been working hard to re-establish his real estate businesss.
He took the listings. In two day’s time, and with the help of the Rodeo team, Vallance had ads running in the newspaper, professional quality signs in place, photos taken of the properties, color brochures, lock boxes, and flags and balloons for the open houses. The events were a success, he said.
The client came back the next week and asked him to list and host open houses for three additional homes. He accepted, though he plans to spread the open houses out to give his full attention to each one. If all goes well, the client plans on listing seven or eight more properties with Vallance.
The Winnetka Palace
Beverly Hills Estate With Long List of Celebrity Owners
Gospel Music Visionary Places Calabasas Home on the Market
ANNUAL WAG N’ WALK FUNDRAISER IN SIMI VALLEY
Heidi Montag's Lease Listed For Sale
Brian Stevens’ Malibu listing made L.A. Times Hot Properties this week. Here’s some of what reporter Lauren Beale had to say:
Reality TV star and singer Heidi Montag has been hiding out by the beach this summer at a Malibu place she rented for $25,000 a month, according to the Multiple Listing Service. But she moved on in late August, and the gated contemporary is back on the market at $5.5 million.
Yes, that’s Heidi of “The Hills,” as in Heidi and Spencer, as in soon-to-be divorced Heidi. Lost? Backing up, Montag began dating fellow cast member Spencer Pratt while working on “The Hills” (2006-10). The pair eloped to Mexico in 2008 and, just for good measure, got married again stateside last year. In July she filed for divorce.
Home Once Owned by Elton John, Joan Collins and Christine McVie
This gated and private East Coast traditional view estate is located in the star-studded Crest Streets of Beverly Hills. Not surprisingly, the home has a long list of former celebrity owners including: Christine McVie of the rock band Fleetwood Mac, Joan Collins, and Elton John.
The estate is on more than ¾ acres of lush, park-like grounds. A large motor court entry leads to a majestic home that features flagstone exterior and slate roof.
Ben Salem and Cash for Keys Transactions
Ben Salem of Rodeo Realty’s Sherman Oaks office just returned from the 2010 CoreLogic® Vendor/Broker Conference in Orlando (formerly First American) called “Insights for Success,” where he was asked to lead an educational panel on REO evictions and best practices. Here’s what Salem had to say about the experience and another upcoming speaking engagement:
“This was an amazingly insightful conference, packed with three days of educational tracks covering a wide range of vital issues involving BPOs, REO servicing, and field services. I know attendees, myself included, took away some valuable ideas and advice on what to expect from our clients and how to employ best practices in evictions. Of course it also gave us all an opportunity to network with our industry colleagues.
My panel, titled “Evictions—Avoid Costly Delays and Penalties,” allowed me the opportunity to share my experience and ideas on how to negotiate a successful cash for keys with compassion, while avoiding delays and other costly issues that can impact a servicers’ bottom line. We had a fantastic turnout.
Through a comprehensive overview of the evictions process my goal was to offer REO agents a unique perspective on how to handle this most delicate aspect of any foreclosure and effectively complete cash for keys transactions. We focused on borrowers rights; the difference between personal property and debris; techniques for occupancy determination; and how to break the ice with occupants.
Next month I’ll be speaking at the Five Star Default Servicing Conference and Expo (Sept. 21) in Dallas. I will be presenting another educational session on the do’s and don’ts when negotiating cash for keys transactions and dealing with not-so-welcome occupants. Former first lady Laura Bush will serve as one of several distinguished keynote speakers, and I can’t tell you how excited I am about this upcoming industry event!
Ben Salem Properties and the Elite REO Team continue to think outside the box when it comes to innovative ways to help our clients manage and move their properties in the most efficient amount of time with the least amount of complications and for the best price possible.
Educating other REO agents on how to provide compassionate relocation assistance to struggling homeowners as we serve our clients goals is part of our commitment to excellence and to our community.”