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Economic Update | Week Ending March 14, 2026

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Stock markets dropped, while mortgage rates and bond yields jumped this week – Disruptions in the global oil supply from the war in Iran pushed oil prices higher this week. A barrel of oil was around $70 two weeks ago, prior to the conflict, and closed the week just over $100 a barrel. At one point it hit $120 a barrel. Oil is used in so many products and is such an influence in gas, diesel, and energy costs that it is a major contributor to inflation, which has finally showed signs of coming under control. Over the last two weeks, major stock markets have dropped over 5% and bond yields and mortgage rates have gone from 4-year lows to their highest levels of the year. To be fair, it’s a tight range and they are still lower than they were over much of the past 4-years.

Key inflation index show that inflation remained under control in February – It should be noted that this was before the war or conflict in Iran. The consumer price index (CPI) was released on Wednesday it showed that consumer prices grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in February, unchanged from January. The core (CPI), which excludes food and energy was also unchanged at 2.5%, its lowest level since 2021.

Mortgage rates – Mortgage rates have gone from the lowest rates since 2022 to the highest rates in one year over the past two weeks! Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 12, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.11%, up from 6% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.5%, up from 5.43% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 46,558.47 down 2% from 47,501.55 last week. It is down 3.1% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,632.19, down 1.2% from 6,740.02 last week. The S&P is down 3.1% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,105.36, down 1.2% from 22,378.68 last week. It is down 4.9% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.28%, up from 4.15% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.90%, up from 4.77% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

February home sales report – The California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors release home sales data on the third week of the month for the previous month. We expect the California Association of Realtors to release the February home sales data next week and the National Association of Realtors to release the national figures either at the end of next week or the beginning of the following week. The data is derived from MLS systems throughout the state and country. We tabulate the data from the same MLS systems and similar reports are available now for your city or zip code at RodeoRe.com.

Have a Great Weekend!
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Mortgage Rate Update | March 12, 2026

Mortgage rates -– Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 12, 2026, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.11%, up from 6% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.5%, up from 5.43% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

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Economic update for the week ending March 7, 2026

Economic update for the week ending March 7, 2026

It was a tough week for stocks, bonds, and mortgage rates. War in the Middle East has led to a spike in energy prices. Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait.  A barrel of oil has risen from about $66 per barrel last week to near $90 per barrel on Friday. This quick rise has sparked inflation fears which caused stocks to sell off and bond yields and mortgage rates to rise.

Mortgage rates – What a difference a week makes. We have gone from the lowest mortgage rates since 2022, under 6% for a 30-year fixed mortgage back up to 6.25% in one week. Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of March 5, 2026, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6%, up slightly from 5.98% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.43%, almost unchanged from 5.44% last week. Unfortunately, the 30-year ended the week at about 6.25% as oil prices spiked raising inflation fears.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

U.S. labor market contracted in February – The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the February jobs report on Friday. It showed that 92,000 jobs were lost in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, from 4.3% in January. Average hourly wages increased 0.4% month-over-month from January and 3.8% from one year ago. Usually, a report like this would cause interest rates and bond yields to fall because less people working leads to less consumer spending. Almost 70% of the economy is fueled by consumer spending, so less spending lowers inflation pressure. Unfortunately, spiking energy prices offset this.

Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 47,501.55, down 3% from 48.977.92 last week. It is down 1.2% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,740.02, down 0.4% from 6,879.98 last week. The S&P is up 0.5% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025.   The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,387.68, down 1.8% from 22,668.21 last week. It is down 3.7% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

 

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.15%, up from 3.98% last week.  The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.77%, up from 4.64% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

 

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Mortgage Rate Update | February 26, 2026

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Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of February 26, 2026 were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.98%, down slightly from 6.01% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.44%, up from 5.35% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

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Economic Update | Week Ending February 21, 2026

Mortgage rates hit their lowest level since September 15, 2022 – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of February 19, 2026, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.01%, down from 6.09% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.35%, down from 5.44% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

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Stock markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 49,635.97, up 0.3% from 49,500.93 last week. It is up 3.3% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,909.51, down 0.4% from 6,936.76 last week. The S&P is up 0.8% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,886.07, up 1.5% from 22,546.67 last week. It is down 1.5% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

U.S. Treasury Bonds – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.04%, down from 4.04% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.69%, down slightly from 4.69% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 256,550 on an annualized basis in January, down 10.8% from 287,570 in December and down 1.3% from 260,040 last January. The statewide median price paid for a home in was $823,180 in January, down 3.2%from $850,680 in December, and down 1.9% from $839,130 one year ago. The $823,180 median price marked to lowest median price in 23-months according to the California Association of Realtors.

Have a Great Weekend!

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Mortgage Rate Update | February 19, 2026

MRU

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of February 19, 2026 were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.01%, down from 6.09% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.35%, down from 5.44% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

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Economic update for the week ending February 14, 2026

Inflation cooled in January – The consumer price index (CPI) was released on Friday it showed that consumer prices grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in January, down from a 2.7% annual increase in December. The core (CPI), which excludes food and energy increased 2.5% from one year ago, down from 2.6% in December.

Mortgage rates – Mortgage rates dropped on Friday after the CPI report showed inflation is cooling – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of February 5, 2026 were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.11%, nearly unchanged from 6.1% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.5 %, nearly unchanged from 5.49% last week.Rates dropped on Thursday and Friday and ended the week with the 30-year dropping below 6%. 

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Hiring picked up in January – The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the January jobs report on Wednesday. It showed that 130,000 new jobs were created in January. This was more than double the 55,000 new jobs that economists surveyed expected. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, from 4.4% in December. Additionally, data from 2025 was revised downward, showing total non-farm employment growth for the year was only 181,000, marking 2025 as the fewest new jobs created in a non-recession year.

Stock markets finished the week lower – After closing above 50,000 for the first time ever last week the Dow had a losing week and closed well below that 50,000 milestone. Much of the loss was attributed to profit taking. There was also some loses in the technology sector as fears that AI may make some programing and other non-hardware tech companies obsolete. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 49,500.93, down 1.2% from 50,115.67 last week. It is up 3% year-to-date from 48,063.29 on December 31, 2025. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,936.76, down 0.1% from 6,932.30 last week. The S&P is up 1.3% year-to-date from 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025.   The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,546.67, down 2.1% from 23,031.63 last week. It is down 3% year-to-date from 23,241.99 on December 31, 2025.

 The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.04%,  down from 4.22% last week.  The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.69%, down slightly from 4.85% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

January home sales and prices – Home sales data is released on the third week of the month for the previous month by the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. A summary of their home sales reports will be in next week’s update. We tabulate the same data from information derived from the local MLS systems on the 9th of each month for the previous month. You can get a report now for your city or zip code on our site RodeoRe.com.

 

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