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U.S. employers add 161,000 new jobs in October – Unemployment rate at 4.9% – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added a slightly less-than-expected 161,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate stood at 4.9 percent as investors got to digest the final payrolls report before Tuesday’s presidential election. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected payrolls to grow by 175,000, so this was slightly below expectations. Wages exceeded expectations with average hourly earnings climbing 10 cents, reflecting a 2.8 percent annualized increase, according to the report. A broader measure of unemployment, that includes those who have stopped looking for jobs and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 9.5 percent, the lowest level since April 2008.

Stocks down this week – Stocks have fallen every day this week as investors grow cautious on uncertainty over the upcoming election. Oil prices fell this week as a report showed oil inventories are surging. The jobs report was very positive, especially with respect to wages,  which have finally began to rise after years of stagnation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 17,888.28, down from 18,161.19 last Friday. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,085.18, down from 2,126.42 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,046.37, down from last week’s close of 5,190.10.

U.S. Treasury Bond yields drop – While stocks dropped, investors moved money to bonds looking for safety. That caused bond yields to drop after several weeks of slight increases. The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 1.79%, down from 1.86% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.56%, down from 2.62% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates slightly higher this week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on November 3, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.54%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.84%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.87%. I’d expect rates to be slightly lower in next week’s survey based on where we were at the end of the week. 

Have a great weekend!
Syd

Stocks up slightly this week – Third quarter earnings season began with mixed results. Several tech companies beat earnings expectations while several very large companies reported earnings that were below expectations. As more companies report the market may move depending on the profit levels. All in all it was a pretty lackluster week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,145.71, up from 18,138.38 last Friday. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,141.16, up from 2,132.98 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,257.40, up from last week’s close of 5,214.16.

U.S. Treasury Bond yields drop this week – The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 1.74%, down from 1.80% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.48%, down from 2.55% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates up just slightly this week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on October 20 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.52%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.79%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.85%. I’d expect to see rates just slightly lower next week based on where we were at the end of the week. 

California existing home sales up in September – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single family home sales totaled 425,680 in September on a seasonally annualized rate, up 1.8% from August’s rate and up 0.8% from last September. This marked the first year over year increase in 7 months as extremely low inventory has led to fewer sales. 

California’s median price paid for an existing home up 6.1% – Year over year the median price paid for a single family home increased 6.1% in September to $514,320 according to The California Association of Realtors. The median price in September 2015 was $494,670. 

Homes on the market remain near all time low levels – C.A.R. also reported that the unsold inventory index in September showed a 3.5 month supply of homes on the market. A “normal” market has a 6 1/2 month supply of homes. I’d expect prices to continue to rise until the inventory level gets closer to normal levels.  

U.S. existing home sales up in September – The National Association of Realtors reported that total existing home sales, which include single family detached homes, town-homes, condos, and co-ops, increased 3.2% in September from August levels. Sales year over year were up just 0.6% from last September, but The September figure represented a nice rebound after a disappointing July and August sales level. One key figure in the report was an increase in first time buyers who accounted for 34% of the total sales. That was a 4 year high. Distressed sales accounted for just 4% of sales which is a new low according to N.A.R. The median price for an existing home nationwide increased 5.6% from last September as low inventory pushed prices higher.

Hope you have a great weekend!

Syd

Stocks down this week as companies begin to report 3rd quarter profits – The week began with disappointing 3rd quarter profits from a few early reporting companies. Alcoa and others shocked investors with weak results which caused markets to sell off sharply. By the end of the week Citi and JP Morgan Chase reported higher than expected profits which caused stocks to make up some of the week’s loses, and gave hope to investors that, as more companies report, profits may be better than they felt at the beginning of the week. Other news this week was that: Oil hit a high for the year at over $51 a barrel. Minutes released from the September Fed meeting has investors feeling that The Federal Reserve will raise rates at the December meeting. A drop in Chinese manufacturing has caused renewed concerns on the strength of China’s economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,138.38% down from 18,240.49 last Friday. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,132.98%, down from 2,153.74 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,214.16, down from last week’s close of 5,291.40.

U.S. Treasury Bond yields higher this week – Fears of higher rates has pushed bonds up again this week. The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 1.80% up from 1.73% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.55% up from 2.46% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates edge up this week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on October 13 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.47%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.76%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.82%. I’d expect to see rates a little higher again next week based on where we were at the end of the week. 

China tops list of foreign buyers for fourth year – According to a survey from The National Association of Realtors, China ranked first among foreign nationals purchasing property in the U.S. for the fourth straight year. U.S. Home sales totaled $27.3 billion. That exceeded the total of the next 4 countries combined. 

September home sales figures will be released next week by The California Association of Realtors. Pending sales were up slightly in August. If those pull through to closing closed sales should remain strong. We shall see next week. 

Have a great weekend!

U.S. Employers add 156,000 jobs in September – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in September, a decent gain but slightly below market expectations. This year, job gains have averaged 178,000 per month, down from last year’s pace of 229,000. The nation’s unemployment rate was 5.0%, up from 4.9% in August, as more workers entered the job search. Average hourly earnings increased by 6 cents to $25.79, after just a two-cent increase in August. Year over year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6%.

Stocks down for the week – Stocks fell this week on fears of higher interest rates. Stronger than expected auto sales and manufacturing data caused investors, once again, to fear a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The jobs report showed 156,000 new jobs added in September which was a little below expectations, and a 2.6% rise in wages over last September, which was at expectations. This also has investors believing that a rate hike is coming soon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,240.49, down from 18,308.15 last Friday. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,153.74, down from 2,168.27 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,292.40, down from last week’s close of 5,312.00.

U.S. Treasury Bond yields higher this week – Fears of higher rates has pushed bonds up over the last month. The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 1.73%, up from 1.60% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.46%, up from 2.33% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates unchanged this week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on October 6 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.42%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.72%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.80%. I’d expect to see rates a little higher next week based on where we were at the end of the week. 

Stocks have huge swings, yet end the week up slightly, and end the month down slightly – Despite large daily swings, stocks were pretty stable this month. The last two days were indicative of what we have seen with stocks down sharply Thursday only to be up sharply Friday. Higher oil prices helped stocks this week, and falling health and banking stocks hurt markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,308.15 up from 18,261.45 last Friday. The Dow was down from 18,400.88 on August 31. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,168.27, up from 2,164.69 last week. It was unchanged from 2,170.95 on August 31. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,312.00, up from last week’s close of 5,305.75. The NASDAQ closed the month up from 5,213.22 on August 31. 

U.S. Treasury Bond yields flat this week and just slightly higher for the month – The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 1.60%, down from 1.62% last Friday. It was 1.58% on August 31. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.32%, down from 2.34% last week. It was 2.23% on August 31. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates unchanged this week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on September 29, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.43%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.72%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.81%. 

California Association of Realtors releases 2017 housing forecast – Key points in their report were: Prices would continue to increase, but at a more tempered rate. They feel prices will rise 4.3% in 2017, compared to a 6.2% increase in 2016. The median price will rise to $525,600 in 2017, up from $503,900 in 2016. The number of sales would be flat, up just 1.4% in 2017. That would equate to 413,000 units, up from 407,300 units forecasted in 2016. The 30 year fixed would rise slightly to 4% in 2017, up from an average of 3.6% in 2016. 

Stocks rally as The Fed forgoes rate hike, but retreat on Friday – Stocks rose this week after The Federal Reserve announced that they decided to leave rates unchanged at the conclusion of their Open Market Committee Meeting. They did state that they were open to a rate increase soon. Stocks had a volatile two weeks as speculation of whether or not a rate increase was coming moved the market. It looks like we will see more of the same before the next Fed meeting. Stocks dropped sharply Friday erasing most of the week’s gains. The largest drops were in energy, and mining as oil dropped over 4% to $44 a barrel. Stocks were up for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,261.45, up from 18,123.80 last Friday. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,164.69, up from 2,139.16 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,305.75, up from last week’s close of 5,244.57.

Bond yields down slightly this week after three weeks of slight increases – The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 1.62%, down from 1.70% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.34%, down from 2.44% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates unchanged this week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on September 22, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.48%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.76%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.80%. 

Southern California home sales hit 10 year high in August – Data firm, CoreLogic reported that 23,278 new and existing single family homes sold in August in their 6 county Southern California region. That number represents a 10 year high and almost a 10% increase in the number of homes sold last August. The median price was flat in August, but up 6.2% from one year ago, according to CoreLogic.

California pending home sales show increase in homes under contract – The California Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing home sales increased 6.4% in August from August 2015 levels. Year over year the number of pending sales increased in all regions of the state with the Southern California region posting the largest gain, up 9.7% from August 2015. Pending existing single family homes include all resale detached and attached homes. 

U.S. existing home sales ease up pace in August – The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing homes sold nationally declined 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.33 million homes in August from a rate of 5.38 million in July. Year over year the pace of existing homes sold, which include all resale single family, condominiums, town-homes and co-ops, increased just 0.8% from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million homes last August.

Have a great weekend!
Syd

Stocks up for the week despite volatile daily swings – Stocks had a volatile week. There were large daily losses and gains as Fed members, and other analysts spoke about the possibility of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting coming up this Wednesday and Thursday. As data rolled in, speculation of what the fed would do varied depending if the data was positive or negative. News that median family income rose last year at its fastest pace than any year in the last 30 years, last months inflation spike, and the low unemployment rate raised speculation that a hike was coming. Falling oil prices and lower import costs fueled speculation that the fed could hold off. Nobody knows for sure, until Thursday! The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,123.80, up from 18,085.46 last Friday. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,139.16, up from 2,127.81 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 5,244.57, up from last week’s close of 5,121.91.

Bond yields inch up again this week on Fed rate hike speculation – The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 1.70%, up from 1.67% last Friday. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.44%, up from 2.39% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bond yields closely.

Mortgage rates slightly higher this week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on September 15, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.50%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.77%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.82%. 

California employers add 63,100 new jobs in August – The Employment Development Department reported Friday that the state added 63,100 net new jobs. This was much higher than experts had forecasted. Considering that the nation added 151,000 new jobs in August this number would suggest that California accounted for 42% of all jobs added nationwide last month. The state’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.2%, as more workers entered the workforce. 

Consumer prices show signs of inflation as health care and housing prices spike in August – The Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 0.2% in August after being unchanged in July. The 12 month increase in The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August was 1.1%. That was well above July’s last 12 month increase of 0.8%. Experts had expected a 0.1% increase for the month. The Core CPI which does not include food or energy was up 0.3% in August. It’s up 2.3% for the 12 months ending August. It’s much higher than the CPI because of lower energy costs which are stripped out of the Core number. Healthcare costs, which are included in the Core number had the biggest monthly increase in 32 years. That’s something I’m sure we will hear a lot of talk about! Rents also pushed up housing costs as they maintained their steady increase. 

Median family income shows biggest one year gain in over 30 years – The Census Bureau issued its annual report on incomes and poverty in America. Analysts were shocked by the 5.2% gain in median household income after inflation. It was the largest one year gain in over 30 years. Incomes were up in every category measured. It also showed that more workers had been able to move from part time to full time as more jobs were available. It was not pointed out in the reporting, but income growth has been very stagnant since the recession, so averaged since 2007 it’s not as stellar as it looks. 

California’s number of existing homes sold up in August, but lower that last August – The California Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing homes sold totaled 420,360 on an annualized seasonally adjusted basis. That was up 1.1% from the number of homes sold in July, but down 2.2% from the number of homes sold last August on an adjusted basis. Existing single family homes include homes, condos, town-homes, and co-ops. 

Existing home prices continue to increase – The California Association of Realtors also reported that the median price of an existing detached home in California increased 1.7% to $526,580 in August from July’s $517,650. Year over year the median price was up 5.8% from $497,520 last August. 

Home inventory levels still near record lows – The California Association of Realtors also reported that their unsold inventory index dropped to a 3.4 month supply in August. It was at 3.6 months in July. A normal market would have a 6 to 7 month supply. Low inventory pushes prices higher. 

Have a great weekend!
Syd

Below is the Westside Market Report for August 2016 detailing local real estate market statistics and including year-over-year data:

Westside

Below is the Conejo Valley Market Report for August 2016 detailing local real estate market statistics and including year-over-year data:

Conejo Valley