Economic update for the week ending May 14, 2016

Stocks drop again this week – Stocks dropped again this week as a new round of first quarter corporate earnings reports showed consumers pulled back sharply on purchases. Retail sales were particularly weak, as companies revised their outlooks downward for the remainder of the year. Late Friday the Commerce Department released April retail sales figures which showed that sales rebounded. It will be interesting to see how this affects the opening of the market on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 17,535.32, down from 17,740.63 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,046.61, down from 2,057.41 last week. The NASDAQ closed Friday at 4,717.68, down from 4,736.16 last week. 

Bond yields lower again this week – The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 1.71%, down from 1.79% last week. The 30 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 2.55%, also lower than 2.62% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bonds carefully. 



Mortgage rates drop to 3 year low – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on May 12, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.57%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.81%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.78%.


Retail sales surge in April – The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales recorded their biggest increase in a year as consumers stepped up purchases of automobiles and other goods in April. This report suggested that the economy may be gaining momentum after a disappointing first quarter. Retail sales surged 1.3% in April. It’s largest gain since March 2015. Coming just days after Macy’s and Nordstrom’s reported poor first quarter sales, this report suggests that fear of consumer spending slowing sharply may have been over exaggerated. 


Homes more affordable in the first quarter – The California Association of Realtors reported that housing affordability in the state improved in the first quarter. Strong wage growth, lower interest rates and leveling home prices pushes housing affordability higher. According to C.A.R. 34% of California households could afford to purchase a $465,280 median priced home. The income required to purchase a median priced home was $92,571. This was up from the fourth quarter of 2015 when only 30% of households could afford to purchase a median priced home. Condos and town-homes were even more affordable with 41% of households able to afford a condo or town-home. The income needed to purchase the median priced condo or town-home was $77,575.

Have a great weekend!



Syd

Economic update for the week ending May 7, 2016

 U.S. job growth slows – The Labor Department reported that employers added 160,000 net new jobs in April. This fell short of the 200,000 net new jobs analysts had expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 5%, an 8-year low. Retail sales lost 3,000 net jobs. This was especially surprising after retailers’ adding 39,000 net new jobs in March, and 157,000 in the first quarter of 2016. Construction added just 1,000 net new jobs after adding 41,000 last month. Those two sectors alone account for April’s decline. The report showed that wage growth is finally beginning to show signs of improvement. Average hourly wages ticked up 8 cents an hour, after increasing 6 cents an hour last month. Wages are up 2.5% for the past 12 months ending April 30, after remaining fairly stagnant since the recession. 

Stocks lower this week – Stocks dropped for a third week in a row as renewed concerns of persistent weakness overseas made investors cautious. This followed a disappointing first quarter GDP report last week and some earnings reports that were not as robust as expected. Stocks also dropped Thursday when ADP, the nation’s largest payroll company suggested that Friday’s jobs report would be disappointing. It was, yet stocks actually recovered slightly, because investors hoped that it would give pause to the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged in June rather than raise them for only the second time since 2006. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 17,740.63, down from 17,763.64 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,057.41, down from 2,065.30 last week. The NASDAQ closed Friday at 4,736.16 down from 4,775.36 last week. 

Bond yields slightly lower again this week – The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 1.79%, slightly down from 1.83% last week. The 30 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 2.62%, also slightly lower than 2.66% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bonds carefully. 

Mortgage rates lower this week – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on May 5, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular mortgage products were as follows: The 30-year fixed rate average was 3.61%. The 15-year fixed average rate was 2.88%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.80%.

Economic update for the week ending April 23, 2016

Stocks at yearly high – DOW tops 18,000 – Stocks were up again this week. Solid corporate first quarter earnings and firming oil prices helped the markets this week. So far the first quarter earnings season is off to a solid start. 59% of firms beat revenue expectations and 82% of firms beat earns expectations. Energy stocks rebounded as well. U.S. crude oil rose from $39 a barrel last week to $43 this week. U.S. crude oil hit $27 a barrel in February, so it’s made a nice rebound which has energy companies, and people in areas with oil production feeling better about the economy. The Dow Jones industrial average has now gained 2,500 points since hitting its lows just two months ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 18,003.75 up from 17,897.46 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,091.58, up from 2,080.73 last week. The NASDAQ closed Friday at 4,906.23, down from 4,938.72 last week. 

Bond yields up this week – The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 1.89%, up from 1.76% last week. The 30 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 2.70%, up from 2.56% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bonds carefully. Mortgage rates will be higher next week. 

Mortgage rates remain near three year low -The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on April 21, 2016
showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular products were as follows: The 30 year fixed average rate was 3.59%. The 15 year fixed average rate was 2.85%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.81%. Rates rose at the end of the week. They will be a little higher on next week’s survey.

California existing home sales and prices post best pace in six months – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales totaled 415,220 in March on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 5.5% from February, and 5.7% higher than last March. The statewide median price was $483,280, up 8.9% from February and up 4% from March 2015. 

U.S home existing home sales show strong spring buying season has begun – The National Association of Realtors announced that existing home sales reported from member associations around the nation revealed that home sales in March were up 5.1% from February. 

California unemployment rate drops in March – The state’s unemployment rate dropped from 5.5% in February to 5.4% in March. It has dropped 6.8% since its peak of 12.2% in February 2010. 

Have a great weekend! 


Syd



Economic update for the week ending April 9, 2016

Stocks down for the week – This week several Fed members as well as Fed chairperson, Janet Yellen, made statements about interest rate policy. They stated that rates will rise much slower than previously expected due to more uncertainty in the economy. This helped to weaken the value of the dollar which is good for manufacturers who export goods. The weaker dollar caused oil prices to rise. Oil was up 7% for the week with U.S. Crude closing above $39 a barrel. U.S. Crude hit a low of $27 a barrel in February, so oil prices have been on a good path to recovery. Energy stocks ended the week higher. Unfortunately, retail stocks got hit hard when Gap and several other retailers announced that same store March sales were down considerably. This and The Fed comments caused investors to wonder where the economy is heading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 17,576, down from 17,972.75 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,047.60, down from 2,072.78 last week. The NASDAQ closed Friday at 4,850.69, down from 4,914.54 last week.

 
Bond yields lower for the week – The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 1.72%, down from 1.79% last week. The 30 year U.S. Treasury bond closed Friday yielding 2.55%, down from 2.62% last week. Mortgage rates follow bond yields so we watch bonds carefully.

 
Mortgage rates near three year low -The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on April 7, 2016 showed that average mortgage rates from lenders surveyed for the most popular products were as follows: The 30 year fixed average rate was 3.59%. The 15 year fixed average rate was 2.88%. The 5/1 ARM average rate was 2.82%.

This was a slow week for data. Next week we should start getting housing sale numbers and California March employment figures.

Have a great weekend!

Syd