Economic Update | Week Ending September 27, 2025

Weekly Economic Update; WEU
The economy was stronger than reported in the second quarter of 2025 – This week, the government released its final revision of the nation’s second quarter GDP. It showed that the economy grew 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, up from its previous reported 3.2% increase.

Fed’s Preferred index showed that inflation increased for a fourth straight month in August – The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 2.7% in August from one year ago. Excluding food and energy, the Core PCE rose 2.9% from one year ago. Those numbers were in line with analysts’ expectations. They expect the inflation rate to rise further this year and begin to decline next year as the full effect of tariffs sets in.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 46,247.29, down 0.2% from 46,315.27 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 3.8% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,643.70, down 0.3% from 6,664.36 last week. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 10% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed the week at 22,484.07, down 0.7% from 22,631.46 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 14.6% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury bond yields and mortgage rates increased this week after the final GDP revision showed that the economy was hotter than previously reported and that inflation was continuing to tick higher. – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.20%, up from 4.14% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.77, up from 4.75% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 25, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.3%, up from 6.26% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.49%, up from 5.41% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.
Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

August home sales – This week, the California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors released their August 2025 home sales report. You can run a report on your city or zip code with the same data at RodeoRe.com.

U.S. existing-home sales – August 2025 – The National Association of Realtorsreported that existing-home sales totaled 4.0 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in August, up 1.8% from the number of homes sold last August. The median price paid for a home sold in the U.S. in August was $422,600, down from $435,300 in July, and up 0.2% from $414,200 one year ago. There was a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from a 4.2-month supply last August. First-time buyers accounted for 28% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchasesaccounted for 21% of all sales. All cash purchases accounted for 28% of all sales. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 2% of all sales.

California existing-home sales – The California Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 264,240 on an annualized basis in August, up 0.9% from 261,820 in July. Year-over-year sales were down 0.2% from a revised 264,640 annualized home sales last August. The statewide median price paid for a home in was $899,140 in August, up 1.2% from $888,740 in August 2024. The unsold inventory index showed that there was a 3.9-month supply of homes for sale in August, down from a 3.2-month supply of homes for sale one year ago.

The graph below shows CAR sales data by county for Southern California.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | September 25, 2025

MRU

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 25, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.3%, up from 6.26% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.49%, up from 5.41% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.

From LG’s New TVs to Waymo Travel and More! | Tech News

Stay connected with the world of tech from LG’s new TVs to Waymo Travel and more! We’ve got you covered with the top tech news of the week. Read on and never miss a beat on the leading tech and media news from around the world!

LG’s “Easy TV” makes smart TVs friendlier for seniors
Image Courtesy of LG

LG revealed the Easy TV, a version of its QNED lineup redesigned with older users in mind: a simplified home screen, larger text, enhanced audio, and medication-reminder pop-ups help reduce friction. The remote was rethought, too, with bigger labels, a Help button that contacts family or returns users to the last thing they watched, and an AI voice shortcut for easier search. The set includes a built-in camera for effortless video calls and generous picture/voice adjustments tuned for aging eyes and ears. It launches first in South Korea with plans to expand to other markets over time. This is a practical reminder that inclusive hardware design can make mainstream devices genuinely more usable for more people. 

DeepMind links Gemini to web search to help real-world robots
Image Courtesy of Google

Google DeepMind announced new Gemini-powered models that can search the web and use retrieved information to help robots plan and complete tasks, narrowing the gap between online knowledge and physical action. By combining web retrieval with embodied reasoning, robots can query for how-to guides, component specs, or environment constraints in real time and adapt plans accordingly. The work focuses on safety and grounding so models don’t hallucinate instructions that are unsafe to execute in the physical world. Early demos show promising task completion improvements, though researchers stress continued evaluation before broad deployment. This effort pushes AI toward useful, situated assistance for logistics, maintenance, and research robots. 

Meta opens pop-up Lab shops to demo smart glasses with on-lens displays
Image Courtesy of Meta

Meta launched temporary Lab pop-up shops where customers can try smart glasses that include on-lens displays and basic AR experiences, a hands-on step toward mainstreaming wearable displays. The demos show how compact displays and simple heads-up info can work for directions, notifications, and quick camera captures without a heavy headset. Meta positions these pop-ups as both marketing and user-research labs to collect feedback on comfort, privacy, and everyday utility. While the hardware remains experimental, the retail trials help Meta iterate on lenses, optics, and real-world interaction patterns. Expect more public demos as companies refine both hardware and content for “glasses you might actually wear.” 

Waymo rolls out “Waymo for Business” for corporate travel programs
Image Courtesy of Waymo

Waymo introduced Waymo for Business to let employers provide safe, chauffeur-free rides for employees and guests through managed corporate accounts and reporting tools. The Waymo program bundles travel controls, cost tracking, and scheduling integrations so companies can route employees to meetings, airports, or client sites using Waymo’s autonomous fleet. Waymo pitches the service as a complementary mobility option that reduces parking burdens and can improve employee punctuality and safety. Business customers get usage analytics and admin controls to align rides with company policies and budgets. This move by Waymo nudges autonomous mobility toward enterprise procurement and daily operations, not just consumer rides. 

WhatsApp adds built-in message translation on iOS and Android
Image Courtesy of WhatsApp

WhatsApp launched inline message translation for iPhone and Android so users can translate incoming messages into their preferred language without leaving the chat. The feature supports quick, one-tap translations and aims to make cross-language conversations smoother for friends, family, and small businesses. Translations happen within the app’s UI and preserve message context, which reduces friction compared with copying text into external translators. Privacy and local performance were emphasized as rollout priorities, and WhatsApp plans phased availability across regions. This makes multilingual chatting simpler and more seamless for global user networks. 

Montblanc debuts a premium digital notepad for handwriting fans
Image Courtesy of Montblanc

Montblanc entered the digital notepad market with a luxury device that captures handwriting and transfers notes to connected apps while keeping a classic paper-like feel. The product targets professionals who prefer pen-and-paper workflows but want digital backups and easy synchronization with cloud services. Built-in handwriting recognition and export options aim to bridge analog rituals and digital productivity without sacrificing tactile enjoyment. Montblanc’s move blends craftsmanship with modern utility, appealing to users who value both design and functionality in their tools. Expect the device to lean premium on price and finish, matching the brand’s traditional audience.

Weekend Events | September 26 – September 28

Say hello to fall and all the weekend fun it’s brought along! From museum block parties to art fairs and more, we have you covered. Check out what’s happening in your neighborhood September 26 through September 28.

Los Angeles Weekend Events | September 26 – September 28 

Autry’s Annual Block Party

When: September 27 

Where: The Autry Museum | Griffith Park

What: Saddle up for a day of Western fun at the Autry Museum’s annual open house and block party! This year’s celebration features a mechanical bull, Ferris wheel rides, trick ropers, live music, food trucks, carnival games, plein air painting, car show, museum tours, and even a horse-grooming workshop. Honoring the brave first responders who aided the city during recent wildfires, the event blends cowboy spirit with community gratitude.

Los Angeles Haunted Hayride

When: September 19 – November 2 

Where: Griffith Park

What: Ditch the kid-friendly pumpkin patches—Griffith Park’s Haunted Hayride is back to terrify. Now in its 17th year, the infamous attraction once again drops guests into the eerie mid-’80s town of Midnight Falls, where a witch’s summoning spell has unleashed lurking monsters hiding among the Halloween decor. This year, the Mistress of the Dark herself—Elvira—joins the chaos, bringing her campy charm to new takes on fan favorites like the Scary-Go-Round and Trick or Treat. Brave souls can expect a lengthy hayride packed with sinister surprises, plus a cozy cider-and-doughnut lounge for a breather between scares.

Los Angeles Comic Con

When: September 26 – September 28 

Where: Downtown L.A.

What: Suit up for one of L.A.’s biggest pop culture celebrations at Los Angeles Comic Con, returning to Downtown for an epic three-day event. Dive into panels on comics, anime, and TV, plus celebrity appearances from stars like David Tennant, Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany, and more. Whether you’re here for the cosplay contest or exclusive screenings, it’s the ultimate fan fest for all things geek culture.

 

Westside and Beach Communities Weekend Events | September 26 – September 28 

Ohana Festival

When: September 26 – September 28 

Where: Orange County

What: Eddie Vedder’s Ohana Festival returns to Doheny State Beach in Dana Point from September 26–28, with a stacked lineup featuring Green Day, Kings of Leon, Hozier, Leon Bridges, Cage the Elephant, and Vedder himself. This beachfront music fest blends major headliners with a laid-back, family-style vibe inspired by its name—“ohana,” the Hawaiian word for family. A portion of the proceeds will benefit local nonprofits, including the San Onofre Parks Foundation and the Doheny State Beach Foundation.

Magic of the Jack O’Lanterns

When: Until November 2 

Where: Rancho Palos Verdes

What: This fall, Pumpkins at Night returns to L.A. with a glowing display of thousands of hand-carved jack-o’-lanterns in a brand-new location: the scenic South Coast Botanic Garden in Palos Verdes. Originally from Denver, this immersive Halloween experience features themed pumpkin light shows, bounce pads, inflatables, and festive eats—perfect for families looking for a fun, not-too-frightening seasonal outing.

The Other Art Fair

When: September 25 – September 28

Where: Marina del Rey

What: Discover the next wave of artistic talent at The Other Art Fair, returning this September to the Barker Hangar in Santa Monica. Known as the “bizarre, unexpected” sibling of traditional art shows, this immersive event features over 150 emerging and independent artists—with many original works priced under $500. Expect interactive installations, DJs, performances, and this season’s standout addition: the “Dread Spa,” a soul-cleansing experience offering chakra realignment, sound baths, and tea leaf readings—all designed for the experience-seeker.

San Fernando Valley Weekend Events | September 26 – September 28  

“Silent” Cinema Night – The Princess Bride

When: September 26 

Where: The Shops at Sportsmen’s Lodge | 12833 Ventura Boulevard 

What: Enjoy a movie night under the stars with a special screening of The Princess Bride at The Shops at Sportsmen’s Lodge! Bring your friends, kick back with complimentary popcorn and personal headphones, and relive the charm of this beloved classic in an open-air setting. It’s a magical evening you won’t want to miss—mark your calendar and get ready for a truly unforgettable night.

Kyle Rehl Films His 1st Comedy Special

When: September 27 

Where: The Green Room on Ventura | 14082 Ventura Boulevard

What: Be part of the audience for Kyle Rehl’s (aka The Zack Snyder Guy) first stand-up comedy special taping! With 100k Instagram followers, 330k on TikTok, and appearances on Peacock and OFTV’s LMAOF, Kyle’s unique brand of comedy has already taken him across the country. Catch the live show at The Green Room in Sherman Oaks (14082 Ventura Blvd) — 21+ only, drinks by donation. Produced by Good Milk Films.

Halloween Horror Nights

When: Until November 2, 2025

Where: Universal Studios | Universal City

What: Universal Studios Hollywood kicks off Halloween Horror Nights on September 4, transforming the park into a scream-filled spectacle with themed haunted houses and mazes. Highlights include a Fallout-inspired post-apocalyptic wasteland, the chilling Jason Universe celebrating 45 years of Friday the 13th, and a terrifying Five Nights at Freddy’s maze. Plus, the Terror Tram returns with creepy encounters featuring Blumhouse villains like M3GAN.

 

Conejo Valley Weekend Events | September 26 – September 28 

Fall Harvest Festival at Underwood Farms

When: September 27 – October 31 

Where: 3370 Sunset Valley Rd | Moorpark

What: Celebrate the season at Underwood’s 28th Annual Fall Harvest Festival, featuring a massive pumpkin patch, live entertainment, games, rides, themed weekends, and tons of photo ops. Your admission includes access to attractions like wagon rides, a corn maze, a pumpkin house, and so much more! 

31st Annual California Lemon Festival

When: September 27 – September 28  

Where: Girsh Park, Goleta

What: Join the zesty fun at the 32nd Annual California Lemon Festival in Goleta! With free admission and parking, this beloved event features over 80 booths. Likewise, enjoy lemon-themed food and drinks, live entertainment, a kids zone, a Saturday classic car show, and pie-eating contests. It’s a fun-filled weekend celebrating all things citrusy for the whole family!

ArtWalk Ventura

When: September 27 – September 28 

Where: Downtown Ventura 

What: Celebrate the vibrant arts scene of Ventura at the 2025 ArtWalk, featuring more than 200 artists across galleries, businesses, and outdoor spaces from Main Street to the Ventura Avenue arts district. This free, family-friendly festival includes live music, poetry readings, street painting, and more! In addition, enjoy a cinema showcase, hands-on kids’ activities, and performances from Santa Barbara’s Solstice Parade. With multiple stages and creative surprises around every corner, ArtWalk Ventura is a cultural celebration not to be missed.

The Top Coffee and Espresso Shops Around Town | L.A. Eats

In search of the perfect specialty coffee or espresso? Los Angeles is as much about lifestyle as it is about location. Likewise, there is a bevy of local cafés where we pause, meet, and savor small moments. This week’s blog highlights standout coffee and espresso bars across the city. Of course, these selections offer not just great brew but ambiance, design, and community energy.  Check out these top cafés that double as elegant meeting spots, local mood‑setters, and content-worthy backdrops. 

10 Speed Coffee

With multiple locations across L.A., 10 Speed Coffee blends consistency with neighborhood flair. The Calabasas location features an airy interior that feels both elevated and relaxed. Their drinks are strong and well-executed, and the ambiance encourages lingering over work or conversation.  This café is ideal, especially in communities like Calabasas or the western Valley.

Laidrey

Nestled in the San Fernando Valley, Laidrey is beloved by locals who appreciate in‑house roasting. Enjoy creative lattes like honey lavender and turmeric, and a warm, inviting aesthetic. The café balances bold flavor experiments with staple coffees that let the beans shine.  Add to that a selection of pastries, and it becomes a full sensory stop—not just a caffeine fix. It’s a great spot to introduce clients to the Valley’s evolving culinary scene.

Hooked Venice

Set inside Dudley Market near the Venice Beach boardwalk, Hooked Venice merges coastal character with serious coffee craft. The interior features vinyl records, a disco ball, and plenty of character—mirroring the eclectic spirit of Venice itself.  The baristas here are known for creative espresso concoctions. In addition, enjoy a relaxed but stylish space that’s ideal for taking breaks between beach walks and meetings.

Paisita Cafe

This breezy café on Abbot Kinney blends the spirit of Venice with Latin flavor. With a menu of warm empanadas, breakfast burritos, and the “Glory” (dulce de leche + espresso), Paisita elevates casual café fare with thoughtful touches.  The interior is lined with vinyl records, vintage decor, and an easygoing energy—perfect for a client who loves coastal living with personality.

M Street Coffee

In Sherman Oaks, M Street Coffee is a neighborhood staple known for a full spectrum of espresso, drip, and cold brew options. The café offers signature drinks like their Caramel Royale and seasonal specials (e.g. pumpkin spice in the fall).  It’s casual but refined, a comfortable space for locals, professionals, or anyone wanting a dependable coffee experience in the Valley.

Cognoscenti Coffee Bar

With outposts in Culver City, Downtown, and more, Cognoscenti Coffee Bar has built a reputation for precise brewing and friendly baristas. Their modern interiors, often featuring natural light and clean lines, make the experience feel elevated yet approachable.  They focus on quality in every cup, making it a favorite among aficionados and casual drinkers alike—a reliable stop when moving between neighborhoods.

Series A

Series A stands out with its Korean‑inspired espresso blends and creative offerings, like sweet potato or corn lattes, in a stylish strip mall off Wilshire.  The café offers generous seating and free Wi-Fi, making it a solid pick for remote work sessions. Its inventive menu and calm setting make it a unique addition to any coffee crawl through Beverly Hills or adjacent districts.

Good Friend

Located along Virgil Avenue, Good Friend combines neighborhood charm with polished coffee service. They serve classics like flat whites, cortados, and vanilla lattes, but also creative options like peanut butter & jelly lattes or yuzu iced coffee.  Seating is limited inside, so many patrons enjoy the bench outdoors—making it a relaxed, social spot with elevated flavor and design.

Dinosaur Coffee

In Silver Lake, Dinosaur Coffee remains a standout despite the density of nearby cafes. Their beans are worth taking home, but their in‑shop lattes and cappuccinos paired with Sugarbloom pastries make for a complete experience.  The light-filled interior, warm wood tones, and thoughtful layout make it a go-to for content shoots or relaxed mornings in Eastside neighborhoods.

Enjoying Early Fall Sunsets | Out & About

As the calendar turns to late September and early October, Southern California’s golden hour sunsets transform into something truly special. The skies take on a softer hue, and the mood naturally shifts toward the cozy and reflective. This is the perfect time of year to slow down and savor those fleeting golden hour moments. Likewise, what better way to do that than from one of the region’s most scenic, high-end vantage points?

Check out this curated list of SoCal sunsets that offer the ideal backdrop to embrace fall’s arrival in sophisticated Southern California style.

Griffith Observatory Vista (Los Angeles)

Few places capture the seasonal glow of early fall quite like the Griffith Observatory. Perched high above the city, this iconic destination offers panoramic views. As the sun dips, the city is bathed in golden light. Of course, this makes Griffith an ideal location for a refined evening walk or an elevated date night. As temperatures cool slightly, you’ll appreciate the crispness of the air paired with the warmth of the setting sun.

Little Corona del Mar Beach (Newport Beach)

Tucked into the cliffs of Orange County, Little Corona del Mar is one of the region’s most enchanting hidden gems. This intimate beach is framed by dramatic rock formations and tide pools, with a wide-open view of the horizon. In early October, the lower sun angle creates dramatic shadows and soft light. Likewise, this combination makes it perfect for private picnics, quiet reflection, or elegant small gatherings. This is a place to bring a cozy throw, a bottle of wine, and a curated cheese board for a luxurious sundown moment.

Runyon Canyon Overlook (Hollywood Hills)

For those who love sunsets, along with combining activity with ambiance, the Runyon Canyon overlook is the ultimate golden hour destination. A short, scenic hike rewards you with sweeping views of Los Angeles just as the sun begins to dip behind the Westside. The fall skies bring a richness to the color palette, making this a beautiful spot to cap off the day before heading to a nearby rooftop for drinks. It’s a great option for those who appreciate both nature and nightlife.

Signal Hill Sunset View Park (Long Beach / LA County)

Offering panoramic views of the coastline, Long Beach skyline, and distant mountain ranges, Signal Hill is one of Southern California’s most serene and elevated sunset escapes. The park is rarely crowded, providing a peaceful setting for end-of-day reflection or a luxury picnic. In late September, the breeze begins to shift, and the cooler air paired with the last warmth of daylight makes for a striking contrast that enhances the experience.

Inspiration Point (Corona del Mar / Newport Coast)

Located just above Big Corona Beach, Inspiration Point is a beloved spot for locals and visitors alike. Of course, this destination retains a sense of serenity that feels exclusive. The natural framing of the ocean, cliffs, and lush landscaping makes it ideal for upscale gatherings, early evening proposals, or just a quiet moment to watch the sun fade into the sea. Bring along a few seasonal touches—a soft plaid blanket, spiced cider, or artisanal snacks—to fully embrace the fall mood.

 

Luxury Fall Home Fragrances | Home Tips

As the sun begins to set earlier and the breeze carries a subtle crispness, it’s officially time to shift your home’s atmosphere into fall mode. While textures and colors play their role, one of the most powerful tools for setting the mood is often overlooked: scent.

Luxury fall home fragrance is more than just pumpkin spice—it’s about creating an olfactory signature that feels elevated, warm, and personal. From smoky woods to deep fig, the right scent layers can transform your space into a seasonal sanctuary.

Why Fall Fragrance Matters in a Luxury Home

In a Southern California climate where visual signs of fall are more subtle, fragrance becomes essential to communicate the seasonal shift. A thoughtfully chosen scent can anchor a space emotionally, evoke cozy memories, and enhance everything from entertaining guests to enjoying a solo evening with a good book and a cashmere throw.

Luxury homes deserve scent experiences that feel curated—tailored to each room, mood, and moment.

Fragrance Profiles Perfect for Fall

Whether you prefer something smoky and grounded or subtly sweet, the best luxury fall home fragrances tend to fall into the following scent families:

  • Cedarwood & Sandalwood: Warm and grounding—perfect for entryways and living rooms.

  • Saffron & Amber: Rich and exotic, ideal for dining areas or entertaining spaces.

  • Fig & Plum: Earthy yet slightly fruity; lovely for bedrooms or reading nooks.

  • Smoked Vanilla & Tonka Bean: A modern twist on traditional vanilla—soft, warm, and indulgent.

  • Leather & Tobacco Leaf: Deep, masculine notes often found in luxurious dens or home offices.

Top Brands Elevating the Fall Fragrance Game

Diptyque Paris
Courtesy of Diptyque Paris

Known for its minimalist aesthetic and complex scents, Diptyque offers “Feu de Bois” (wood fire) and “Ambre” as fall favorites. Their candles come in beautiful glass vessels that double as decor.

Byredo
Courtesy of Byredo

This cult-favorite brand blends luxury and mood with scents like “Woods” or “Bibliothèque”, which capture the essence of leather-bound books and quiet introspection. Their reed diffusers and room sprays add instant character.

Nest New York
Courtesy of Nest New York

With fragrances like “Pumpkin Chai” and “Moroccan Amber”, Nest combines cozy notes with long-lasting formulas. Their 3-wick candles are perfect for large, open-concept homes.

Le Labo
Courtesy of Le Labo

Le Labo’s Santal 26 and “Thé Noir 29” offer fall-ready blends with sandalwood, black tea, and dried fig. Their minimalist packaging makes them ideal for modern, high-end interiors.

Jo Malone London

From “Pomegranate Noir” to “Myrrh & Tonka”, Jo Malone’s fragrances are subtle yet complex—perfect for layering throughout the home using candles, diffusers, and linen sprays.

How to Layer Fragrance in the Home

To achieve a signature scent experience, try layering different fragrance forms in the same scent family throughout your home:

  1. Candles in the living room or bathroom for an ambient glow.

  2. Reed diffusers in entryways or hallways for constant scent diffusion.

  3. Room sprays or linen sprays for guest bedrooms or post-cleaning refreshes.

  4. Essential oil diffusers in wellness spaces, using earthy oils like clove, cinnamon, and eucalyptus.

Pro tip: Use different scents for different zones (e.g., warm vanilla in bedrooms, fig and cedar in shared spaces) to cue emotional transitions throughout the home.

Final Touches for a Fully Scented Experience

  • Choose fragrance vessels that match your decor—stoneware, amber glass, or gold accents work beautifully for fall.

  • Light candles in clusters of three for visual and aromatic impact.

  • Don’t forget scented drawer liners or closet sachets for a hidden touch of luxury.

As we transition into autumn, a well-scented home becomes an invitation to slow down, settle in, and savor the season. By investing in high-end fragrance, you’re not just making your space smell good—you’re making it feel like fall in the most luxurious way possible.

Economic Update | Week Ending September 20, 2025

Weekly Economic Update; WEU
The Federal Reserve lowered rates for the first time this year – so why did long-term bond yields and mortgage rates increase slightly instead of dropping after the rate cut? On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell announced that the Fed had reduced its key interest rate by 0.25%. The Fed rate is the overnight rate that banks pay to borrow from the Fed – the shortest of short-term rates. When the Fed lowers its rate, banks typically follow with an equal reduction in their prime rate. That affects business lines of credit, home equity lines of credit, and other short-term loans. However, it does not necessarily bring down mortgage rates or long-term bond yields. In fact, both rose slightly after the rate cut, though they remain near their lowest levels of 2025. The best explanation is that long-term rates are tied to investors’ expectations of future inflation. Investors require a spread above projected long-term inflation to justify holding long bonds. Cutting rates can fuel inflation, so yields moved up.

The Fed has a dual mandate: to control inflation and maintain full employment. Typically, when the economy slows, companies hire less, consumers spend less, and inflation drops. In those periods, balancing the dual mandate is less challenging. As Powell emphasized, however, this is a unique moment: inflation is rising while the job market has stalled. The Fed chose to cut rates out of concern that the labor market is slowing too quickly, even though inflation has been creeping up. For example, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, had steadily declined to 2.3% by April 2025. But since then, it has risen every month, reaching 2.9% in August – its highest level in eight months. Powell cited tariffs as a key factor behind the recent rise.

Long-term bond yields and mortgage rates ended the week higher than last Friday. Mortgage investors were also disappointed by Powell’s remarks. With the real estate market slowing, many had hoped the Fed would announce a resumption of long-term Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases – a tool that directly lowers long-term rates. That was not included in Powell’s outlook for 2025. The Fed does have that ability. During the financial crisis and again during COVID, it purchased large amounts of Treasury bonds and mortgage securities, expanding its balance sheet to record levels. In June 2022, with the economy strong and inflation surging, the Fed reversed course, raising short-term rates and selling off bond holdings to cool the economy. Since then, it has reduced its balance sheet by $2.19 trillion. Many analysts expected that, alongside the rate cut, the Fed would resume bond purchases to support housing, but Powell gave no indication of that.

The California Association of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors will release their August home sales reports next week. Local data for your city or ZIP code is available now at RodeoRe.com.

Stock Markets – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,315.27, up 1%from 45,844.32 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 4% from 44,544.66 on December 31, 2024. The S&P 500 closed at 6,664.36, up 1.2% from 6,584.29 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 10.3% from 6,040.53 on December 31, 2024. The Nasdaq closed at 22,631.46, up 2.2% from 22,147.10 last week. Year-to-date, it is up 15.3% from 19,627.44 on December 31, 2024.

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 4.14%, up from 4.06% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 4.75%, up from 4.68% last week. We track bond yields closely because mortgage rates tend to follow them.

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 18, 2025, were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.26%, down from 6.35% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.41%, down from 5.5% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Have a Great Weekend!

Mortgage Rate Update | September 18, 2025

MRU

Mortgage rates – Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes interest rates based on a survey of mortgage lenders throughout the week. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 18, 2025, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.26%, down from 6.35% last week. The 15-year fixed was 5.41%, down from 5.5% last week.

The graph below shows the trajectory of mortgage rates over the past year.

Freddie Mac was chartered by Congress in 1970 to keep money flowing to mortgage lenders in support of homeownership and rental housing. Their mandate is to provide liquidity, stability, and affordability to the U.S.