It was another busy month at Rodeo Realty. Check out all the great things that happened in April!
Economic Update For The Week Ending April 25, 2014 with Syd Leibovitch
Employers in Los Angeles County added 18,900 jobs in March. The countywide total of jobs is 4.17 million, close to the all-time payroll peak of 4.2 million jobs set in 1990. Over the past 12 months, the county has added 87,500 jobs, a growth rate of 2.1%. The county unemployment rate remained unchanged from last month at 8.7%, down from 10.1% a year ago. The statewide rate for March was 8.1%. The city of Los Angeles reported a 9.7% unemployment rate.
Orders for durable goods rose 2.6% last month according to the Commerce Department. This followed a 2.1% increase in February and was higher than economist predictions of a 2.0% gain in March. The first-quarter gross domestic product growth is estimated around a 1.5% annual rate and forecasts for the April-June period are above a 3% pace.
The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters gauge of consumer sentiment hit a final April reading of 84.1 — the highest reading since July — up from a final March level of 80. Economists had been predicting a final April level of 82.8.
Stocks were up for most of the week but fell Friday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated and some international military observers were taken hostage. The market also reacted to disappointing earnings news from Ford, Amazon, and Visa which overshadowed positive news from Microsoft. The Dow closed lower this week finishing at 16,361.46 down -0.29% from last week’s close of 16,408.54. The Nasdaq closed at 4,075.56 down -0.49% from last week’s close of 4,095.52. The S&P 500 was slightly lower, ending the week at 1,863.40, down -0.08% from last week’s 1,864.85.
The 10 year Treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.68%. It was 2.73% last Thursday (there was no report on Friday) and 1.74% a year ago.
The Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the 30-year-fixed rate rose to 4.33%, the rate was 4.27% last week. The 15-year-fixed was up slightly to 3.39% from last week’s 3.38%. A year ago the 30-year fixed was at 3.40% and the 15-year was at 2.61%. Loans over $417,000 are just above 4.5% for 30 year terms and just above 3.5% for 15 year loans.
Inside Mortgage Finance released a report this week showing that about $235 billion in new home loans were made last quarter, down -23% from the fourth quarter’s estimated $305 billion and -58% lower than the first quarter of 2013. It was the lowest output since the first quarter of 2000.
The National Association of Realtors® reported that existing home sales were down -0.2% from February to March for a seasonally-adjusted rate of 4.59 million which represents a -7.5% drop from a year ago. Last month’s sales volume was the slowest since July 2012. Declining affordability, lingering winter, and inventory shortages were listed as contributing factors. The median home price was $198,500 which was up 7.9% from March 2013. Housing inventory rose 4.7% from February to March up to 1.99 million homes which is 3.1% higher than a year ago. The current rate is 5.2 months compared to five months in February and 4.7 months a year ago. The median time on market was 55 days in March, down from 62 days in February and 62 days in March 2013. In the West, existing home sales fell -3.7% to a pace of 1.03 million in March, which is down -13.4% from last March. The median price in the West was $289,300, 12.6% higher than a year ago. I really don’t know if it should even be using these statistics, as we have not seen prices like these in our markets since the 1970’s. Its hard to fathom national prices when you live in Southern California!
The Southland Regional Association of Realtors® found that there were 414 properties sold in March, up 29%from February’s 320 but down -17%from 498 properties a year ago. The median price increased 20% to $515,000 from $430,000 a year ago. Housing inventory is increasing in the area, up around 50%. In March there were 1,520 previously owned houses and condos for sale, up from 1,015 a year ago. There is a 2.8 month supply of homes at the current sales pace, up from last year’s 1.5 month supply but still far below normal inventory rates.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February, and were up 6.9% from one year ago. The FHFA House Price Index is calculated using home sales prices from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In the Pacific region which includes California, prices rose14.3%.
Freddie Mac released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for April. The agency is projecting new home construction to increase by 18% and house price appreciation moderating to an annual growth of 5% in 2014. It has lowered the home sales projection from 5.6 million to 5.5 million for 2014.
Next month’s data should be better for the real estate market. The pending home sales data from the California Association of Realtors® shows pending home sales rose 17.8% in March with the Pending Home Sales Index rising from 97.1 in February to 114.4 in March, the highest rate since July of last year but down -9.9% from the revised 126.9 index recorded in March 2013.
The California Association of Realtors® also reported that the share of equity sales increased to 87.6% in March, up from 85% in February. Equity sales were 71.8% of sales statewide in March 2013. In Los Angeles County alone distressed sales represented 13% of single-family home sales in March 2014, down from 14% in February and 35% in March 2013.
It seems like we are seeing an uptick in new listings. For some reason new listings were down significantly the first quarter of this year. I can not give any reason for this, but it is beginning to look like more homes are getting listed. With so many buyers out there searching for homes we need the listings now more than ever!
Peacock Hill Ranch Listed With Rodeo Realty
One of the great things about Los Angeles is that in just a few miles you can escape the city and experience a whole other way of life. The beauty and relaxation of the American West is alive and well at Peacock Hill Ranch, a horse lover’s dream. Down the road from the Angeles National Forest and bordering miles of trails at Hansen Dam, it’s hard to believe this 7-acre idyllic country escape is just 30 minutes from all the city of LA has to offer.
Built in 1939, owned by the daughter of the original Sky King and once home to a steed named Silver of The Lone Ranger fame, this sprawling residential compound with a working horse ranch is a private Ponderosa of Hollywood history.
Enjoy pastoral panoramas from every vantage point of this expansive property. A serene hillside pasture is the breathtaking backdrop for the rambling main residence and two guesthouses that are designed in a sophisticated hunting lodge-style. Warm and rustic materials like redwood, brick, slate and wrought iron compliment the natural environment. Flagstone steps lead to a swimming pool surrounded by mature trees and landscaping.
Design elements that enhance the western ambiance include an antlered entry portico, peg-and-groove hardwood flooring, exposed beams and columns, carved corbels, skylights, adobe fireplace, vaulted ceiling, and custom vanities. French doors throughout open to wraparound redwood decking and each window frames a captivating picture. A country chef’s kitchen with Viking appliances, a romantic master suite with fireside lounge area, a generous dining room, en-suite guest quarters and snooker room make this showplace an entertainer’s delight as well as a private retreat.
The full-service boarding and training facilities include: a Main Barn with 7 Stalls and 5 Paddocks; a Shed Row Barn with 8 Stalls; 26 Sheltered Pipe Corrals; 5 Tack Rooms and 3 Sheds; 1 Grain Room; 2 Hay Barns; 3 Round Pens; 100 x 200 lit Arena; 4 acres of fenced pastures; wash rack; foaling stall. A conditional use permit for 100 horses and 501c(3) equine sanctuary designation offers a “stable” investment opportunity at this one-of-a-kind horse heaven. Peacock Hill is listed with Rodeo Realty’s Hope Faust. See full details at http://www.10330mcbroom.com/
Rodeo Realty Newport Beach Listing Featured By L.A. Confidential
Spring is here and we are all dreaming of time by the water. The writers at L.A. Confidential are no exception and they recently rounded up a tempting list of homes that would be the ideal place to spend the warm weather. One of them was Nanette Marchand’s listing on Linda Isle in Newport Beach. Linda Isle is a 24-hour guard gated community that offers privacy and exclusivity.
The five-bedroom estate was built in the 1970’s for Robert & Shirlee Guggenheim and was designed for entertaining with an enviable waterfront location that is only enhanced by a lagoon style pool & spa. The home has 105 feet of water frontage with a private pier.
The unique master suite offers breathtaking views of the Main Channel, Coastline & Pacific Ocean and features a cozy morning room with fireplace and dressing area. The home is being delivered fully furnished and turnkey. For more information visit the property listing.
Economic Update For The Week Ending April 11, 2014 with Syd Leibovitch
This week marked good news on the jobs front. The Labor Department reported that U.S. job openings in February reached their highest level in six years, increasing 299,000 to a seasonally adjusted 4.17 million. The report is one of the indicators being watched by the Fed as they continue to assess the health of the U.S. economy. Another indicator is that the number of people quitting their jobs also rose for the first time in months. This generally indicates confidence in the fact that jobs are more plentiful.
Early consumer sentiment indicators for April are strong. The consumer sentiment gauge from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters rose to a preliminary April reading of 82.6 — the highest reading since July — from a final March level of 80.
The Labor Department reported that U.S. wholesale prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in March. The price of wholesale services jumped 0.7% last month, while the cost of goods were flat. Personal consumption rose 0.6% in March.
It was a rough week in the stock market as numbers continued to fall and many of the once high-flying stocks such as Tesla and Facebook have taken big hits. These stocks, it should be noted, have seen tremendous run ups, and have been trading at outrageous price to earnings ratios. They are” sexy stocks” which often sell at numbers that don’t make financial sense. U.S. stock numbers have also led to a greater instability in markets overseas. The Wall Street Journal reported that hedge funds have also been cutting their overall exposure to stocks in recent weeks. The Dow fell this week to 16,026.75 down -2.54% from last week’s close of 16,412.71. The Nasdaq closed below 4,000. It dropped to 3,999.73 down -3.1% from last week’s close of 4,127.73 led by a plunge in biotech and high-growth stocks. This was the biggest weekly percentage drop in the Nasdaq since June 2012 and Thursday saw the biggest percentage point drop since August 2011. The S&P 500 also was lower, ending the week at 1,815.69, down -2.65% from last week’s 1,865.09.
The Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the 30-year-fixed rate was back down again to 4.34%, the rate was 4.41% last week. High balance and jumbo 30 year loans are more like 4.625%. The 15-year-fixed also dropped to 3.38% from last week’s 3.47%. The jumbo 15 year is about 3.625%. This represents about a 1/8% drop in rate from last week. A year ago the 30-year fixed was at 3.43% and the 15-year was at 2.65%.
On a very positive note we are seeing an easing in qualifying standards by lenders. When the Qualified Residential Mortgage standards came into effect under the Dodd Frank Financial Reform at the beginning of the year many people feared that loans would be harder to obtain. Today just 4 months later many lenders have made their guidelines more lenient than we have seen since the collapse of sub prime. Some examples are: More lenders offering stated income. Jumbo loans up to $4,000,000 with only 20% down! Some lenders are offering back end ratios of up to 49% on jumbo loans. People with short sales are able to obtain loans after 2 years with some lenders rater than 4 years.This is all good news after 6 years of very stringent lending standards!
The 10 year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.63% responding to this week’s down stock market. It was 2.80% last Friday and 1.82% a year ago.
The latest National Housing Survey from Fannie Mae shows positive movement. The March survey showed that despite some recent volatility, consumers are feeling positive about the housing market. The share of the March survey respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home jumped four percentage points from February’s level to 38%, up from 26% in March 2013. Those who thought it was a good time to buy increased one point to 68, two points below responses one year earlier. Although most respondents (54%) felt mortgage rates would increase over the next year, those respondents (52%) felt they could easily get a mortgage. Those who expect prices to continue to increase over the next 12 months went from 52% in February to 48% while the amount of those expecting prices to stay the same increased by four points to 42%. Survey respondents generally seemed more positive about their financial situation. The amount of those who expect their financial situation to worse dropped to 12% from 21% a year ago and those who say their personal financial situation has improved over the past year is 40%, an all-time survey high. However 58% of respondents feel that the economy is on the wrong track, the same number that felt that way one year ago. Overall 68% of participants said they would buy if they were going to move.
An index from FNC forecasts a 3.7% rise in home prices between March and August for Los Angeles and Orange Counties this year. The home price index is based on non-distressed sales. The index in February was 17.4% higher than last year in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. FNC forecasts that the index will keep rising throughout the summer at roughly half the pace that it did last year. According to the director of research at FNC, this is a sign that the market is healthy but not overheating. Homes on average sold in March went for just a little below their list price and the average seller sold their house for 4.5% more than they paid for it.
The only drags on the economy this week were that property tax taxes were due yesterday, and income taxes are due Tuesday. Income tax rates are higher this year as the Bush Tax Cuts have expired for taxpayers with family incomes over $400,000. Special accelerated depreciation amounts have also expired from the Obama Stimulus Package, and the payroll tax “holiday” also expired this year. This has left everyone with higher tax rates. Fortunately, the economy is expanding. Consumer confidence is up, as are incomes!
All in all we are very fortunate to be in such a vibrant Real Estate Market! Financing is getting easier to obtain, prices are rising, buyers are motivated to buy, and the number of homes sold is increasing!
Rodeo Realty Local Market Report–Westside–March 2014
Below is the Los Angeles Westside Market Report for March 2014 detailing local real estate market statistics and including year-over-year data:
Rodeo Realty Local Market Report–Conejo Valley-March 2014
Below is the Conejo Valley Market Report for March 2014 detailing local real estate market statistics and including year-over-year data:
Rodeo Realty Local Market Report–San Fernando Valley–March 2014
Below is the local market report for the San Fernando Valley for March 2014. The report details real estate market statistics with year-over-year data on median price and days on market.
Economic Update For The Week Ending April 5, 2014 with Syd Leibovitch
The March Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report was released Friday. It showed that the economy added 192,000 non farm jobs. This was welcome news after 3 months of much lower than expected gains, which were attributed to poor weather by many. January and February numbers were revised upward as well. The gains were all in the private sector, as government jobs showed no increase. The sectors with biggest job gains were: Professional and Business services, 57,000. Health care, 19,000. And Construction, 19,000. Construction has added 151,000 jobs over the last year. The March national unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, the same rate it was at in February, however it did show that job creation is continuing at a steady pace. The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one rose to a six-month high of 63.2 % from 63% in February. This signals more people looking for work that had taken themselves out of the work force, as they are more optimistic about finding jobs than in the past.
The Dow rose this week to 16,412.71 up 0.55% from last week’s close of 16,323.06. Earlier this week, the Dow closed out the month at 16,457.66 up 0.83% from last month’s close of 16,321.90. It fell -0.7% for the quarter.
The Nasdaq however continued to fall. It dropped to 4,127.73 down -0.67% from last week’s close of 4,155.76 led by a plunge in biotech and internet stocks. The Nasdaq has lost 20% on 300 key stocks since its high point in early March and is now in bear market territory. The Nasdaq ended the month at 4,198.99 down -2.53% from last month’s close of 4,308.12. It rose 0.5% for the quarter.
The S&P 500 also rose, boosted by the jobs numbers, ending the week at 1,865.09, up 0.40% from last week’s 1,857.62 close but off a record high of 1,890.90 hit Wednesday after an ADP report showed job growth and the Commerce Department reported that factory orders rose 1.6% in February. The S&P 500 ended the month at 1,872.34, up 0.69% from last month’s 1,859.45 close. It gained 1.3% in the first quarter of the year.
The 10 year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.80%. It was 2.73% last Friday and 1.78% a year ago. This signals an upward trend for Mortgage interest rates which closely follow the treasury bond market. Rates actually fell in January have been very steady since. This was mostly due to the disappointing December and January job numbers. With February and March numbers back in line with expectations, expect rates to continue to rise as they have in the last week.
The Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the 30-year-fixed rate rose to 4.41%, the rate was 4.40% last week. The 15-year-fixed rose to 3.47% from last week’s 3.42%. They were more like 4.5% for 30 year and 3.5% for 15 year after the jobs report was digested yesterday. A year ago the 30-year fixed was at 3.54% and the 15-year was at 2.74%. Loans over $417,000 are more like 4.75% for 30 year and 3.75% for 15 year fixed terms today.
U.S. construction spending showed a slight increase in February, up 0.1% in February after a 0.2% drop in January. The Commerce Department reported that construction stands at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $945.7 billion, 8.7% above the level of a year ago. Residential construction dropped 0.8%, the biggest setback since July. This is believed to be a temporary drop.
CoreLogic reported home prices rose 0.8% month over month from January and 12.2%compared to February 2013. This represents 24 months of consecutive year-over-year price increases. CoreLogic’s month-to-month prices aren’t adjusted for seasonal patterns. California was one of the five states with the highest home appreciation at 19.8%. CoreLogic predicts a10.5% year-over-year increase for March.
Zillow released a report this week showing that only around 43% of homes on the market in the Los Angeles area are affordable by historic standards, meaning that a family could buy the home and spend 35% or less of their household income. This is the number that was the average from 1985 through 2000 before the housing bubble. Today the average family would need to spend 39% of its income on a mortgage which is the highest rate of anywhere in the country.
All in all the Real Estate market seems to be in the mist of a spring pick up. Our closed escrows were up about 20% from February as the selling season has picked up steam. Some areas are beginning to see more listings, but most of our market suffers from very low inventory. We really need to see inventory levels increase before prices can level! With property and income tax due over the next two weeks it is possible we could see things cool off a little for a few weeks. It’s pretty common this time of year. If that should happen, don’t panic! It will roar back by the end of April!
Anjelica Huston Sells Legendary Venice Property With Rodeo Realty
As the L. A. Times reported this week, Anjelica Huston has sold her home in Venice for $11.15 million. Huston shared the one-of-a-kind five-story contemporary with her late husband, sculptor Robert Graham, who had his studio there. The home is steps away from Venice Beach and includes 13,796 square feet of loft-like live/work space with a dance studio, a gym, a library/study, a media room, an office, three bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms. Gregory Bega of Sotheby’s International Realty and Mary Kay Nibley of Rodeo Realty were the listing agents.