Economic update for the week ending October 16, 2021

Stock markets rise again this week  – Stock markets, after dropping about 5% in September, have rebounded in October. Economic data points to the economy continuing its expansion. Early reporting of corporate earnings have shown strong corporate profits. Retail sales, which seemed to stall in July August, were up over 14% year-over-year in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 35,294.76, up 1.6% from 34,746.25 last week. It is up 15.4% year-to-date.  The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,471.37, up 1.8% from 4,391.34 last week. It is up 18.9% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 14,897.34, up 2.2% from 14,579.54 last week. It is up 15.5% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.59%, down from 1.61% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.05%, down from 2.16% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – The October 14, 2021, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.05%, up from 2,99% last week. The 15-year fixed was 2.30%, up from 2.23% last week. The 5-year ARM was 2.55% up slightly from 2.52% last week.

2022 housing forecast – The California Association of Realtors released its 2022 housing market forecast this week. They expect the number of homes sold in 2022 to be decline by about 5.2% to 416,800 units. They have projected 439,800 sales in 2021. 2022’s projection of 419,800 sales, while less than 2021, would be the second highest number of sales in the last five years. They expect the median price to rise 5.2% to $834,400 in 2022. While still a healthy increase it’s a ways off from the projected historic 20.3% increase in the median price in 2021. They forecast interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to be at or above 3.5%. While about 1/2% higher than rates are today, that’s a very low interest rate and still near historic lows.

2022 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021p 2022f
SFH Resales (000s) 409.4 417.7 424.9 402.6 398.0 411.9 439.8 416.8
% Change 7.00% 2.00% 1.70% -5.20% -1.20% 3.50% 6.80% -5.20%
Median Price ($000s) $476.3 $502.3 $537.9 $569.5 $592.4 $659.4 $793.1 $834.4
% Change 6.60% 5.40% 7.10% 5.90% 4.00% 11.30% 20.30% 5.20%
Housing Affordability Index* 31% 31% 29% 28% 31% 32% 26% 23%
30-Yr FRM 3.90% 3.60% 4.00% 4.50% 3.90% 3.10% 3.00% 3.50%

September California and U.S. home sales figures will be released by the California Association of Realtors, and the National Association of Realtors next week.

Home Tips: Wall Panel Ideas to Add Character to Your Home

If you’re playing with the idea of placing your property on the market, you may also be wondering how you can make your home more appealing. Luckily, multiple wall panel ideas can help.

Not only can you use wall panels as focal points in a room, but you can also cost-effectively install them. By doing so, you will enhance the visual appeal of your home and improve its value.

Beadboard Wall panels

When you use wall panels, it is good to cover only one wall or part of a wall in the room. This approach provides extra character without being visually overwhelming. In addition, beaded boards are one way to add interest to a room.

Beaded boards are narrow wood strips with a thin ridge on each vertical side, known as the bead. You can even use this product to wainscot a room, which is the traditional covering about two feet of the wall from the bottom upwards.

Reclaimed wood wall paneling

Reclaimed wood is an attractive option to upscale the texture in a room. The character of the wood, such as the knots, lines, and scuff marks, all increase the wood texture. This varied texture makes reclaimed wood paneling ideal for horizontal ship lapping in awkward areas, using different panel widths.

Raised Trim Wall Panel

Consider using trim with beveling to raise interior design appeal. The panel can either be in large or small squares or another shape. Paneling also comes with diverse trimming options, providing you with various shapes and styles.

Paint the trim work the same color as the other walls or in a subtle or contrasting color. Adding trim work creates a modern look that improves your home’s value.

Board and Batten Wall Panel

Wood contains a warmth that you can use to your advantage in the home. For example, creating horizontal, vertical, or other paneling patterns on one bedroom wall draws attention.

In essence, the board and batten style of placing larger wood strips over flat boards is a contemporary interior decorating technique that works. It augments the eye-catching appeal in a room, increasing the comfort and pleasure of spending time in that space.

Contrasting beadboard Wall Panels

Small spaces like bathrooms can benefit from beaded-board panels. Use this wall panel idea to wainscot your bathroom. The combination of cold ceramic tiles on the top half of the wall and warm beaded board in a different color on the bottom half creates a stunning contrast which helps lift the room.

Also, think about the style and pattern of the beaded boards when using this wall panel idea. A narrower beaded board is also typically more suitable for small spaces like bathrooms, for example.

Wood and mirrors

Instead of using wood panels in isolation and their natural form, why not switch up the creativity. As a wall panel idea, mixing mirrors with dividing panels is simple. Divide a wall with painted wooden boards that have mirror inserts in each gap. This wall panel idea provides the illusion of space, reflects the interior décor in the area, and ensures a room-lift that sells homes quickly.

Economic update for the week ending October 2 2021

 

Stock markets dropped this week – Talks of a government shutdown, which were averted, and political uncertainty over the fate of the bipartisan infrastructure bill and a massive potential reconciliation bill dominated the news this week. Stock market indexes suffered their largest monthly losses in September since March of 2020. September is often a rocky month for stocks. We will see what October brings. Third quarter corporate profits will be released in the coming weeks, and it is expected that the fate of the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation “Build Better” bill should be sorted out one way or the other. Both of those bills contain massive spending which will stimulate the economy but would also add to inflationary pressures, and expand the debt. The reconciliation bill also raises taxes for corporations, investors, and families making over $400,000 a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 34,326.46, down 1.4% from 34,798.00 last week. It is up 12.2% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,357.04, down 2.2% from 4,455.48 last week. It is up 16.1% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 14,566.70, down 3.2% from 15,047.70 last week. It is up 13.2% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.48% up slightly from 1.47% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.04%, up, from 1.99% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – The September 30, 2021, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.01% up from 2.88% last week. The 15-year fixed was 2.28% up from 2.15% last week. The 5-year ARM was 2.48% up from 2.43% last week.

The September Jobs report will be released next Friday and included in next week’s update.

California home prices continue to surge while the number of sales dropped in August 

California home prices continue to surge while the number of sales dropped in August 

The California Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales totaled 414,860 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in August. That marks a 3.3% decline from the number of sales in July, and a drop of 10.9% from the number of sales in August 2020. August existing home sales were the lowest number of sales in 14 months, but are similar to number of sales that California saw in 2018 and 2019, which was a very healthy real estate market. Year-to-date sales are up 21.3% from the same period last year.

The median price paid for an existing home in August was $827,940, up 2.1% from July’s median price of  $811,170, and up 17.1% from last August when the median price was $706,900

The California Association of Realtors tracks inventory levels based on how many months it would take to sell the active listings in all MLS systems at the current sales level. There was a 1.9 month supply of homes for sale in August, down from a 2.1 month supply of homes for sale last August.

The graph below shows activity by County for Southern California.

From the iPhone 13 to Tesla’s Laser Windshield Wipers and More! | Tech News of the Week

Stay current on the latest tech news from the iPhone 13 to Tesla’s Laser Windshield Wipers and more!

Robinhood Launches Slow and Steady Approach to Crypto Investing

From the iPhone 13 to Tesla’s Laser Windshield Wipers and More! | Tech News of the Week

If you happen to be a Robinhood user, we have good news for you. The popular investment trading app will soon roll out features to let you automatically invest in cryptocurrency. The automatic investments can be daily, weekly, or monthly. Users will be able to invest in notable cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and other supported cryptocurrencies. Those seeking to invest are still advised to speak with an expert before investing. The approach from Robinhood would be for automatic investing, not trading, as it will not sell crypto for you. Instead, the feature helps to steadily build your crypto portfolio. The company has stated that the feature will be “gradually” rolling out to its users throughout the month.

Tesla’s Latest Patent Seeks to Use Lasers as Windshield Wipers

From the iPhone 13 to Tesla’s Laser Windshield Wipers and More! | Tech News of the Week

In unsurprising news, Tesla’s latest patent want’s to use lasers to clean your windshield. The US Patent and Trademark Office granted the boundary-pushing company its unique patent this week. Tesla’s latest venture seeks to use laser beams to clean the debris off a windshield, as well potentially other glass parts of the car. According to the patent, the laser beams would act as a cleaning apparatus for a vehicle”. The beam would consist of optics assembled to emit a laser beam that can irradiate a region on a glass article installed in the vehicle. The patent was filed in 2018, but there’s no clear timeline for when this tech concept may be seen at a vehicle charging station.

iPhone 13 and more to be Unveiled at Apple’s Sept 14 ‘California Streaming’ Event

From the iPhone 13 to Tesla’s Laser Windshield Wipers and More! | Tech News of the Week

Eager Apple fans will not have to wait too much longer for news on the next iPhone launch. Apple’s highly anticipated annual product unveiling will take place on Sept 14. Titled “California Streaming”, the event will be held virtually as a pandemic safety precaution. Expect to hear announcements on a new Apple Watch Series 7 with a revamped design, alongside the iPhone 13 (or potentially called the iPhone 12S). While iPhone can generally always expect a camera upgrade, whispers on the web are also expecting the capability to make emergency calls and text without cell service. Additional announcements expected at the event could also include new Mac computers with upgraded chips and new iPads. 

US government forms committee to advise on AI competitiveness

From the iPhone 13 to Tesla’s Laser Windshield Wipers and More! | Tech News of the Week

The US Department has formed a new committee to advise the federal government on AI research and development. Named The National Artificial Intelligence Advisory Committee, the new committee will focus on a range of issues related to AI. These issues will relate to AI systems in both the public and private sectors. “AI presents an enormous opportunity to tackle the biggest issues of our time, strengthen our technological competitiveness, and be an engine for growth in nearly every sector of the economy.” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said in a release. The secretary also added that the committee must be wise in facing the challenges of AI. The news of forming the committee comes as the U.S. seeks to regain its footing as the world tech leader. 

Amazon’s Cashierless Grocery Stores to Expand Out West

Sherman Oaks will be one of the first areas in the country to experience Amazon’s “Just Walk Out” tech at Whole Foods next year. The tech giant announced its cashier-less service will be expanding to Whole Food locations in Sherman Oaks and Washington DC. This news comes after Amazon tested the service at Amazon Go stores in the year prior. Store patrons will be able to op into the service as they enter one of the stores. Old-fashioned payment options will also still be available at a self-checkout lane or the customer service booth. The company stated that they will maintain “a comparable number” of workers to existing Whole Food locations of similar sizes. 

The Gmail App Will Now Let Users Make a Call

If you’ve ever wanted to make a call from your Gmail account, you now can. Google has announced additional Workspace features this week. The redesign will allow the company to be a central hub for all of Google’s communication apps. Included in the revamp will be the ability to “ring” another Google user with Google Meet, within the Gmail mobile app instead of the Meet app. According to Google, the Meet app will get the same ability to place calls at some point in the future. Users will be able to hide tabs that they don’t use, according to Google. The redesign will first launch to enterprises with the features available for regular consumers soon after that time.

Twitter Test New Timeline Feature

If you made a visit to your Twitter app this week, you may have noticed a slight change. The popular social media app has launched its new timeline feature. The update which is still in testing mode includes edge-to-edge media in tweets on iOS and a community section. The expanded timeline will create a more full-screen appearance, similar to Instagram for photos and videos. The “Communities” space will serve as a feature similar to Facebook groups. The new space invites users to tweet specifically to interest-based communities instead of just to your followers. Tweets shared with specific interest-based groups will still be public but with replies limited to other community members.  

 

California home prices and sales show signs of normalizing in July

California home prices and sales show signs of normalizing in July 

The California Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales totaled 428,980 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in July, down 2% from the number of sales last July.

The median price paid for an existing home in July was $811,170, up 21.7% from last July when the median price was $666,320While a 21.7% year-over-year increase in the median price would normally be a historic rise, it followed three straight months of year-over-year increases of 30% or more. There had never been a 30% year-over-year increase in the median price prior to April.

The California Association of Realtors tracks inventory levels based on how many months it would take to sell the active listings in all MLS systems at the current sales level. There was a 1.9 month supply of homes for sale in July, up from a 1.7 month supply in June and down from a 2.7 month supply of homes for sale last July. Active listings are beginning to climb, and are at the highest level since last October.

Economic update for the week ending August 7, 2021

U.S. employers added 943,000 jobs in July – The Department of Labor and Statics reported that 943,000 new jobs were added in July. That exceeded the 845,000 new jobs experts predicted. Average hourly wages rose 4% year over year. The unemployment rate was 5.4% in July, down from 5.9% in June. It has fallen from a high of 14.8% at the start of the pandemic, but is a long way off from its 3.5% rate before the pandemic.

Strong jobs report pushes stock markets to or near record highs – Stocks rallied on the news that employers added nearly one million jobs in July. It was widely felt that the spike in COVID cases would effect hiring, but it certainly did not in July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 35,208.51, up 0.8% from 34,935.47 last week. It is up 14.9% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,436.52, up 1.0% from 4,395.26 last week. It is up 18.1% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 14,835.76, up 1.1% from 14,672.68 last week. It is up 15% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.31%, up from 1.24% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 1.94%, up from 1.89% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – The August 5, 2021, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.77%, almost unchanged from 2.80% last week. The 15-year fixed was 2.10%, unchanged from 2.10% last week. The 5-year ARM was 2.40%, down from 2.45% last week.

Have a great weekend!

Economic update for the week ending July 24, 2021

Stock markets closed the week at or near record highs – The week began with the largest one day point drop since October marking five straight days of declines. This was due to fears of rising COVID cases. It has become evident that COVID is not behind us as we had hoped. On Tuesday calming words by the Fed, and another round of corporate profit releases turned markets positive. By week’s end markets had made up all of their loses and returned to record high levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 35,061.55, up 1.1% from 34,687.85 last week. It is up 14.4% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,411.79, up 2.0% from 4,327.16 last week. It is up 17.5% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 14,836.99, up 2.9% from 14,427.24 last week. It is up 15% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.30%, almost unchanged from 1.31% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 1.92%, almost unchanged from 1.93% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – The July 22, 2021, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.78%, down from 2.88% last week. The 15-year fixed was 2.17%, down from 2.22% last week. The 5-year ARM was 2.49%, almost unchanged from 2.47% last week.

June U.S. home sales – The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales jumped 22.9% from the number of homes sold last June. The median price paid for a home in May was $363,300, up 23.4% from last June’s median price of $294,400. May marked the 112th straight months of year-over-year increases in the median price. The unsold inventory level is at a 2.6-month supply, down from a 3.9-month supply one year ago. Total housing inventory was 3.3% higher in June than the number of homes for sale in May, but down 18.8% from the number of homes for sale one year ago. First time buyers accounted for 31% of all purchases. Second-home and investor purchases accounted for 17% of all homes sold. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for less than 1% of all homes sold. All cash purchases accounted for 23% of all transactions.